Monday, July 04, 2016

Leave wins 421 seats across the UK, Remain just 229

A lot of chat, including here, about the prospects of weaselling out of the Brexit vote.

The referendum aggregated individual votes across the UK. But what if you group the votes by constituencies and see how each constituency would have voted?

BuzzFeedNews did it here (h/t: Marginal Revolution).
"To see how the country’s referendum vote could affect a general election, we’ve translated the referendum results (which in England, Scotland and Wales were counted by council area, not constituency) into results broken down by parliamentary seats.

"And when you do that, you get a radically different outcome. Instead of a close result, Leave win in a landslide.

"Although the referendum result was close nationally, Remain piled up many of its votes in a relatively small number of constituencies (London and Scotland being prime examples). As a result, the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system would produce an extremely skewed result.

"In our projection, Leave would win 421 seats across the UK, while Remain would win just 229."

A solid sea of blue = Leave constituencies.

Yellow (Remain) indicates two things: the anti-English nationalist votes in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the northern part of Wales, plus the geography of the Elite Bubble in English/south Wales constituencies.

Most MPs won't be backing the coup, I suggest.


Peter Turchin (Cliodynamics) has an interesting piece: "Brexit as Destructive Creation".
"Now, in the aftermath of the referendum, the main question is, what’s next? In the following I propose some answers suggested by the new discipline of Cultural Evolution and my research on historical dynamics (Cliodynamics).

"My proposal is quite radical. Rather than trying to fight the disintegrative trend, we should allow it to run its course, destroying the EU as it is now. But we need a European Union. Thus, what I hope will happen is another integrative project within Europe, one that will learn from the mistakes of the last one.

"In other words, the EU is dead; long live a new and better EU."
Read the whole thing.

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