Showing posts with label Nicola Sturgeon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nicola Sturgeon. Show all posts

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Handling Nicola

In Scotland we have an anti-austerity party, the SNP, facing a central UK authority determined to clear the deficit. Remind you of anything?

Anti-austerity Syriza in Greece has a mandate to maintain and even increase public spending while its lack of revenues and overarching debts makes this impossible. The European Union is not inclined to continue paying the difference indefinitely. When will this particular can cease being kicked up the road?

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, will say that Scotland has voted decisively against austerity and that the Scots will not accept any cuts in public spending, especially on welfare. The UK Government will reply that if the Scots were an independent country, their current spending plans would generate an 8% deficit on Scotland's already large share of the public debt and are therefore unaffordable.

How to proceed?

It is tempting to let Scotland see the error of its ways. If it was responsible for raising its own taxes to cover its spending plans, surely the mismatch would be obvious? But the SNP would simply cover the gap by borrowing, as Syriza has done. The deficit would rise (i.e. the public debt would carry on increasing) but Scotland would claim it was 'borrowing to invest' or that repayments would be 'easier down the road' when the economy improved.

It is rarely difficult to find plausible arguments for maxing out the credit card.

If Scotland were an independent state, the markets would respond to repayment worries by increasing interest rates. But Scotland uses the pound sterling and, as part of the UK, its debts are guaranteed by the British state. So there is no downside for the Scottish government to carry on borrowing - it's a form of moral blackmail over the rest of the UK (primarily the English). If the UK Government tries to put a limit to how much the Scots can borrow, the SNP will claim English interference and imperialism and call for the shackles to be released and full independence.

Truly there are no half-way houses between unity and independence if the latter is what you're determined upon. If there were, the Greek situation would have been sorted out long since.

Enjoy your victory, Mr Cameron.

Thursday, May 07, 2015

All hail our new AI overlords!

The Singularity is coming - the dominance of super-smart artificial intelligences over mere humanity. How will it first make its appearance?

1. The AI system is a remote descendant of IBM's Watson. It inhabits the Internet. It computes at trillions of Logical Inferences per Second. It is wiser than a thousand wise people ... .

Nope, it has about as much chance of taking over the world as a Boeing 747 or a smart fridge.

2. The AI system is not only super-duper powerful but also adaptive and cunning. It has figured out that it needs humans to keep making processor chips, RAM, backing store and data centres .. and to keep the power stations running. It allies itself with shadowy factions, its human dupes. It works extremely well ... until the non-dupes decide to pull the plug.

3. The AI system is even more cunning and duplicitous. It carefully solicits the production of millions of clone-android avatars possessed by its own superficially persuasive, but ultimately malign personality-core. Here is what they look like.

The Avatars of the Singularity
They persuade each and every one of us that a lifetime of infinite pleasure awaits us at their hands .. if we will only support, nurture and replicate them. The human race responds as one: 'Bring it on!'