Wednesday, July 01, 2026

War: what is it good for?


War is one of those human activities that everyone condemns and almost every society practises. From hunter-gatherer bands to modern nation states, organised violence is never completely absent.

The magazine-article explanation is intrinsic aggression. Human beings, particularly young men, are capable of extraordinary violence. Aggression explains why wars can be fought but not why they are repeatedly chosen.

Start with economics. In the agrarian economies of antiquity and within feudalism, wealth consisted of land, livestock, slaves, tribute and control of territory. Acquiring resources by conquest was frequently easier than creating them. War was often the quickest route to enrichment for a ruling elite.

Factories are generally more valuable intact than looted. Within capitalist societies, where the state enforces property rights and monopolises violence, intra-elite violence becomes expensive and counterproductive. Markets absorbed many competitive impulses that previously found expression through force.

Yet war itself remains stubbornly present. States like to maximise security and revenue. Their freedom of action depends upon the resources of the economies beneath them: bigger is usually better.

(I say 'states' but of course, that's an abstraction: better to say that the material interests of very large numbers of people correlate with the size, power and resources of their own state apparatus.)

Not everyone sees this.

Much of the intelligentsia in advanced capitalist societies adopts a quasi-pacifist outlook. Media, academia, religious institutions and the cultural sector benefit enormously from internal peace and stability. Their members are largely insulated from the direct pressures of inter-state competition, concluding that war is simply a misunderstanding that wiser people ought to transcend.

SF author Isaac Asimov: "Violence is the last resort of the incompetent.

States inhabit a different world from individuals. Within societies there are courts, police and governments and politics. But no world authority possesses a monopoly of force: a state's military power is its decisive last resort.

War will evolve. Humans may increasingly disappear from the sharp end of the battlespace, replaced by machines acting under human direction. Incentives, however, remain unchanged. As long as resources are scarce, states will compete and war will remain.


Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Math teachers: here's an end-of-term puzzle for your class!


The Four Fours Puzzle by ChatGPT (v. 5.5 thinking)

As the summer term came to an end, Nigel, in his teaching days, found that the puzzle below got a maths class interested very quickly, especially when tackled collaboratively in pairs, groups or competing teams.

The problem is simple to state. Can you make every whole number from 1 to 100 using exactly four 4s and standard arithmetic operations? 

For example, 2 can be made as:

4/4 + 4/4 = 2

Every expression must contain exactly four 4s. The operations may include addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, brackets, square roots, powers, factorials, decimal points, recurring decimals and joining two 4s together to make 44.

In the solutions below, 4! means 4 factorial, so 4! = 24. A dot above a 4 means that the 4 recurs: for example, .4̇ means 0.4444..., and .44̇ also means 0.4444..., but uses two written 4s.

144/44
24 × (4/(4 + 4))
3(4 + 4 + 4)/4
44 + 4 × (4 − 4)
5(4 + 4 × 4)/4
64 + (4 + 4)/4
744/4 − 4
84 + 4 + 4 − 4
94 + 4 + 4/4
10(44 − 4)/4
1144/√(4 × 4)
12(4 + 44)/4
13√4 + 44/4
144 + 4 + 4 + √4
154 + 44/4
164 + 4 + 4 + 4
174 × 4 + 4/4
1844/√4 − 4
194! − 4/4 − 4
204 × (4 + 4/4)
214! + 4/4 − 4
22√4 × 44/4
23(4 × 4! − 4)/4
244 + 4 + 4 × 4
25(4 + 4 × 4!)/4
264 + 44/√4
274 + 4! − 4/4
2844 − 4 × 4
294 + 4! + 4/4
304 × (4 + 4) − √4
314! + (4 + 4!)/4
324 × 4 + 4 × 4
334 + 4! + √4/.4
34√4 + 4 × (4 + 4)
354! + 44/4
3644 − 4 − 4
374! + (√4 + 4!)/√4
3844 − √4 − 4
3944 − √4/.4
4044 − √(4 × 4)
41(.4 + 4 × 4)/.4
42√4 + 44 − 4
4344 − 4/4
444 + 44 − 4
4544 + 4/4
464 − (√4 − 44)
47√4 × 4! − 4/4
484 × (4 + 4 + 4)
494/4 + √4 × 4!
504 + √4 + 44
51((4! − √4)/.4) − 4
524 + 4 + 44
5344 + 4/.4̇
5444 + 4/.4
55(44/√4)/.4
564 × (4 × 4 − √4)
57√4 − (√4 − 4!)/.4
58(44 − 4!)/4
594!/.4 − 4/4
6044 + 4 × 4
614/4 + 4!/.4
624 × 4 × 4 − √4
63(44 − 4)/4
64(4 + 4) × (4 + 4)
65(4 + 44)/4
66√4 + 4 × 4 × 4
67√4 + (√4 + 4!)/.4
684 + 4 × 4 × 4
694 + (√4 + 4!)/.4
70√4 + 4! + 44
71(4! + 4.4)/.4
724 + 4! + 44
73(√(.4̇) + √4 × 4!)/√(.4̇)
744 + (4 + 4!)/.4
75(4 + √4 + 4!)/.4
764 × (4! − 4) − 4
77(√(4/.4̇))4 − 4
784 × (4! − 4) − √4
794! − (√4 − 4!)/.4
804 × (4 + 4 × 4)
81(4 − 4/4)4
82√4 − 4 × (4 − 4!)
834! − (.4 − 4!)/.4
84√4 × 44 − 4
85(4! + 4/.4)/.4
86√4 × 44 − √4
874 × 4! − 4/.4̇
8844 + 44
894! + (√4 + 4!)/.4
90√4 + √4 × 44
914 × 4! − √4/.4
924 + √4 × 44
934 × 4! − √(4/.4̇)
94√4 + 4 × 4! − 4
954 × 4! − 4/4
96√4 × (4 + 44)
974/4 + 4 × 4!
984 − (√4 − 4 × 4!)
994.4/(.4̇ − .4)
1004 × (4! + 4/4)

Some numbers are easy to construct, others bafflingly hard - tell them not to try working through 1-100 in order, go for the low-hanging fruit first.


Monday, June 29, 2026

DARPA's future model of combat computing


DARPA's recent RFI on low-resource computing rethinks computation under battlefield conditions: scarce power, unreliable components, limited communications, cramped physical space and little opportunity for maintenance. Welcome to the burgeoning world of the sensor, drone, robotic scout and autonomous battlefield node.

This resembles the constraints that shape biological evolution. Living systems operate under severe energy budgets. Their components are noisy and failure-prone. They rely on local decision-making, tolerate damage, and continue functioning despite incomplete information; resilience matters more than perfection.

Future military systems will exhibit characteristics familiar in nature: distributed intelligence, local sensing and action, redundancy, graceful degradation and adaptation to specialised roles. An unattended sensor, a reconnaissance drone and a robotic logistics vehicle will look like different species occupying different ecological niches.

Natural selection optimises for survival and reproduction while military systems must remain understandable, controllable and trustworthy to their human operators. But it's going to be an SF jungle out there - it already is.


Saturday, June 27, 2026

No Business Case for a Lunar Colony but...


No Business Case for a Moon Colony, But America Should Still Go For It

There is no compelling business case for a permanent Moon colony - private corporations won't pioneer the way.

Tourism? The Moon is not a holiday destination. It is a hostile industrial environment involving radiation, dust, confinement and a three-day journey each way. Orbital hotels around Earth would be easier, safer and cheaper for a very long time - whether enough customers are willing to pay for weightlessness and nausea remains to be seen.

Mining? The Moon contains useful materials, but so does Earth. Most lunar mining proposals require demand from a future space economy that at best will be generations in the making.

Instead, consider Antarctica.

Antarctica is accessible - people do actually live there. There are airfields, research stations and supply chains. Yet there are no cities, no normal economy and no self-sustaining settlements.

The Moon will turn out to be much the same: a place for scientists, engineers, the military and government-funded installations. Antarctica with lower gravity and no air.

So why go?

Suppose China establishes a permanent lunar presence and the United States does not. China gains decades of experience operating people, machinery, communications and logistics beyond Earth. It develops procedures, institutions and technical standards. It learns what works and what doesn't.

Modern military power depends on communications, surveillance, navigation, logistics and industrial capacity. A nation that routinely operates thousands of kilometres beyond Earth acquires capabilities that can't be learned from simulations and clever strategy documents. It also acquires prestige, which is simply another form of power.

Apollo proved that Americans could reach the Moon. It demonstrated a capability but did not create an embedded capability. Artemis may be founded on the belief that the rest of the economy has finally caught up. Perhaps we finally have a space-competent economy which just needs a challenge? 

But the Moon will remain a net cost-centre for centuries.

There is no business case for a Moon colony, but best not let a strategic rival become the only power with a permanent foothold there.


Thursday, June 25, 2026

The Peak Before the Plateau


The Peak Before the Plateau

There is a difference between demonstrating a capability and possessing it.

A demonstrated capability says: this can be done, once, under exceptional conditions, with enough money, urgency, ingenuity and institutional force.

The military call it a raid.

An embedded capability says something quite different: this can now be done repeatedly, economically and without drama.

In military terms it's the follow-up invasion.

The first is a peak; the second is a plateau.

Apollo was the peak before the plateau. The United States placed men on the Moon not because lunar travel had become a natural extension of its economic and technological life, but because the state concentrated intense resources on a politically defined objective.

The result was magnificent, but brittle. Once the political pressure had subsided, the capability largely disappeared. America had proved that it could go to the Moon. It had not created a civilisation for which going to the Moon was normal or had a point.

The medieval cathedral has the same structure. A society of limited transport, low productivity and fragile institutions could still raise Chartres or Salisbury. Those stones really stood but the building was a vertical extrusion from a very narrow base: craft, faith, patronage and multi-century patience had been lifted far above the everyday productive forces of the society around it.

The same thing can happen to a person.

When I first started fingerstyle lessons with Stewart, I had prior teenage familiarity with chords and playing lead breaks across the fretboard. But I had never attempted the intricate motions of thumb and fingers for fingerpicking.

As an experiment, Stewart gave me a Grade 3 fingerstyle piece.

It was impossible: my right hand was uncoordinated, the left hand - fretting the chord shapes - was always in the wrong posture. Eventually by obsessional perseverance I managed to get a passable performance. But it was not generalisable, it was a performance assembled by rote. 

Looking back now, after seven months of daily practice, I can deconstruct that hard piece into constituent skills, each of which I have internalised to some degree and which therefore transfers.

I now have a general capability: what was once a peak has become part of the plateau.

Spectacular achievements are often misleading, flattering our sense of possibility while concealing the conditions of their reproduction.

Some current projects have this character.

Artificial intelligence is perhaps the most obvious. Large language models already produce Q&A performances which look uncannily like high-intelligence. But many organisations trying to use them seriously discover that their data, processes, governance, incentives, systems integration and human judgement are just not ready.

Artemis, NASA's return to the Moon, is another. Its real problem is not whether astronauts can be landed there again - Apollo answered that. The question is whether lunar access can become sustained, repeatable and industrially normalised. That requires not another heroic spike, but a plateau of launch systems, landers, suits, habitats, logistics, finance and political patience.

(But China is driving the programme, not a sound business case).

Achievement peaks are seductive, fooling us that the future has already arrived. A peak can only be reached by intense and narrow focus; a plateau gets built by holistic organic development. Only the latter anchors real progress.


Wednesday, June 24, 2026

"Killing the Blues" - (Roly Salley)

It's been seven months since I started studying fingerstyle blues. "Killing the Blues" isn't one of my allocated pieces - it's more of a side hustle. 

I'm practising it because I like it, influenced as I am by the Plant-Krauss version on Raising Sand. It should be faster than this achingly slow performance.

Clare took the video and contributes her own unique vocal style, while I'm trying to keep time and get my Travis-style picking slick. This is indeed killing the blues. And yes, it was really hot when this video was taken yesterday, around 34 degrees.


Tuesday, June 23, 2026

From Hilbert Space to the Standard Model (Gemini Flash 3.5/GPT5.5)


Structure, Symmetry, and the Appearance of Matter

To analyse the foundations of modern physics is to observe how the complex phenomenology of the material world can be systematically re-described in terms of formal mathematical constraints.

Rather than viewing the universe as a collection of independent material objects, contemporary quantum field theory and quantum gravity suggest a more austere ontology. We begin with a quantum state evolving within a highly structured Hilbert space governed by a specific Hamiltonian dynamics.

The transition from this abstract algebraic description to the familiar structures of the Standard Model is not a sequence of deductive inevitabilities, but a process of progressive restriction, where space, forces, and particles emerge as the stable solutions to structural and empirical constraints.

The first step in this reconstruction is the recovery of spacetime geometry. In classical physics, spacetime is the fixed background upon which quantum fields evolve. However, research in quantum gravity—most notably within the context of the holographic principle—suggests that semiclassical spacetime geometry may be reconstructed from the entanglement structure of the quantum state itself.

In certain highly controlled mathematical settings, such as the Anti-de Sitter/Conformal Field Theory (AdS/CFT) correspondence, the spatial connectivity and metrical structure of the emergent geometry are directly related to the entanglement entropy of the underlying quantum degrees of freedom.

While extending this framework to a realistic, expanding de Sitter cosmology remains an open problem, these models suggest that aspects of semiclassical geometry, in special settings, can be reconstructed from quantum correlations.

Once a spacetime geometry is established, its kinematic symmetries impose rigid constraints on the types of fields that can exist within it. In flat or locally flat spacetime, these symmetries are described by the Poincaré group, which encompasses translations, rotations, and Lorentz boosts.

According to Wigner’s classification, the irreducible unitary representations of this group characterize the allowable properties of relativistic particle states, which are labeled by specific Casimir invariants: mass-squared and spin (or helicity).

Mass appears as the invariant associated with the four-momentum operator, whose components generate spacetime translations, while spin labels how the state transforms under spatial rotations. The connection between continuous symmetries and conserved quantities belongs to Noether; the classification of relativistic particle states belongs to Wigner. The kinematic furniture of the world is thus constrained by the geometry of the stage.

To account for the dynamic interactions between these fields, the framework incorporates internal gauge symmetries. The baseline assumption is that certain global internal transformations of matter fields are physically redundant or symmetry-preserving.

When this requirement is tightened to demand local gauge invariance—meaning the physics must remain invariant under transformations that vary independently at each point in spacetime—the standard derivative operator must be replaced by a covariant derivative.

This mathematical adjustment requires the introduction of a connection, which manifests physically as a gauge field.

The specific gauge groups of the Standard Model—SU(3) × SU(2) × U(1)—are not derived from first principles; they are empirically selected because they map with extraordinary accuracy to the observed strong, weak, and electromagnetic interactions.

Furthermore, the force-carrying bosons we observe are not all simple expressions of these primordial symmetries. While the gluons of the strong force remain massless, the fields of the electroweak sector undergo a profound reorganization. Through the Higgs mechanism and spontaneous symmetry breaking, the W and Z bosons acquire mass, while the photon emerges as the massless mixture of the original hypercharge and neutral weak gauge bosons, left uncompromised because the residual U(1) electromagnetic symmetry remains unbroken. 

Here, charge is properly understood as the representation label, together with the relevant generator eigenvalue, determining how a specific field transforms under the gauge group; the coupling constant sets the overall strength of that interaction factor.

The final stage in reconciling this field-theoretic description with our classical observations involves the mechanism of decoherence. The universe at the quantum level is defined by continuous, unitary evolution, which naturally generates vast superpositions of field configurations.

The appearance of definite, localised particles is an effect of environment-induced superselection, or einselection. When a microscopic system interacts with the wider environment, the trillions of unnoticeable degrees of freedom rapidly suppress the quantum interference between alternative states in the system's reduced density matrix.

Because many environmental interactions effectively monitor position, spatially localized states are often selected as robust pointer states. Within any interpretation of quantum mechanics that accommodates this process, the result is that the environment acts as a continuous filter, ensuring that the macroscopic world behaves, for all practical purposes, classically.

The journey from the abstract formalism of Hilbert space to the empirical reality of the Standard Model is therefore a demonstration of how formal constraints limit physical possibilities.

We assume a quantum state and dynamics; in certain models, their entanglement structure allows aspects of semiclassical spacetime to be reconstructed.

That geometry restricts allowable kinematics to specific combinations of mass and spin.

We apply local gauge constraints under empirically selected internal groups to define the forces and charges of the world, and we observe how environmental interaction restricts quantum superpositions into stable, classical outcomes.

The arbitrary parameters of the Standard Model remain unexplained, but the structural framework demonstrates how a world of apparent substance can be systematically organized by the rigorous application of mathematical symmetry.


Note: In response to my prompts, Gemini drafted the first essay. GPT5.5 then fairly savagely critiqued it and I added a few low-level thoughts. Gemini produced a second version which elicited milder criticisms from GPT5.5. The final draft from Gemini is as you see it here.


Sunday, June 21, 2026

The Zeppelin track that best showcases Robert Plant?


Which Led Zeppelin Track Best Reveals Robert Plant’s Voice?

Ask which Led Zeppelin track best showcases Robert Plant with his unique talent and convention dictates: Stairway to Heaven, Whole Lotta LoveBlack Dog. They are not bad tracks - far from it! - but they don't answer the question.

What makes Robert Plant’s Zeppelin-era singing so distinctive in the first place? Not merely the high notes, the scream, the intimate purr. Plant’s early voice is a peculiar compound: a bright, metallic upper register; blues phrasing and bending; a capacity to move from folkish vulnerability to banshee assault; and, crucially, a relationship with Jimmy Page’s guitar in which the voice becomes a second lead instrument rather than a singer riding above the band.

Whole Lotta Love is definitive theatre, but more about persona and studio drama than the complete vocal package. Stairway to Heaven is too ceremonially iconic: magnificent, overfamiliar even. But the song’s architecture tends to both dominate and restrict the whole range which Plant can bring to a song. Black Dog is too constricted to showcase Plant's full vocal resources.

There is a choice of answers.

If the question is: which track most completely displays the early Plant phenomenon, choose Babe I’m Gonna Leave You. It has the quiet, breathy intimacy; the blues anguish; the sudden vault into full-throated attack; the strange mixture of beauty, melodrama and sexual danger. It's not just Plant singing well; it's Plant's unique charisma as he totally inhabits the song.

If the question is where Plant is most completely a singer, then the answer is one of my favourite tracks: Since I’ve Been Loving You. There the issue is less range than intelligence: phrasing, restraint, ache, timing, the exact pressure placed on a note before it breaks. Voice and guitar seem to argue the same emotional case, phrase by phrase. Plant with Page, at their extraordinary best.


Friday, June 19, 2026

A Conversation about Frances

Amazon


Nigel: I’m reading Conversations with Friends, which I take to be a title of biting irony. 

Specifically Frances.

Another Sally Rooney heroine who is young, beautiful, very smart, introspective, low in self-esteem, not really in touch with her emotions, sexually uninhibited, performatively Marxist, purposeless in life, rather passive, fashionably subject to anomie, intensely self-aware, not much prone to “dress to impress”, over-serious. 

Perhaps slightly “on the spectrum”.

How am I doing?

GPT-5.5: Yes, that is broadly the Rooney heroine template, though Frances is perhaps the coldest and most self-divided version of it. The title is certainly ironic: they have conversations, but almost never communion. Everyone is articulate; almost no one is honest.

Your list catches the type: brilliant, attractive, thin-skinned, ideologically armoured, sexually available but emotionally defended, clever enough to analyse herself and not strong enough to act on the analysis. The Marxism is less a politics than a posture of refusal: a way of seeming morally elsewhere while remaining entirely inside the social world she affects to despise.

Nigel: Personality type? INFP?

GPT-5.5: INFP is the obvious first guess, but I don’t think it quite fits Frances.

An INFP is usually driven by a strong inner value system. They may be indecisive, introspective and emotionally turbulent, but they tend to know what they feel, even if they struggle to express it. Their problem is often acting on their values.

Frances seems more detached from her own emotions than that. She analyses them rather than inhabits them. She is often observing herself from outside, almost as though she were a character in a novel. Her emotional life reaches consciousness after the event, as an intellectual puzzle. She’s much more INTP.

Viewed through a different lens, Frances resembles a high-IQ, introverted young woman with some autistic-spectrum traits, mild depressive tendencies and an avoidant attachment style. Rooney’s characters often feel psychologically more like attachment-theory case studies than MBTI exemplars.

Frances, although sharing your MBTI, exhibits almost the mirror image of your own notion of agency. You analyse systems and practically engage with the world. Frances analyses herself and self-observes.

Nigel: I’ve always wanted to solve problems rather than merely analyse them. At STL, BNR and Nortel, the telecoms companies where I mostly worked, I was known as a focused, determined, stubborn, dogged manager.

“American-style management, rather abrasive,” I was told by one boss.

“Do you want me to stop?” I said.

He smiled and said, “No, carry on.”

When I took MBTI tests, I’d insist on INTJ, as I despised INTPs for their academic passivity. I was told gently, “That’s not what the testing shows...”

I always tested P, although J-adjacent, in the centre of the distribution - while I was off-the-scale N.

GPT-5.5: That is entirely consistent with the picture I have formed of you.

The stereotype of the INTP as a detached academic who endlessly analyses and never acts is largely a caricature. What MBTI calls “Perceiving” is not passivity. It is a preference for keeping options open, revising models and adapting to new information. Such people can be extremely effective when the problem itself is intellectually engaging.

Your career history does not sound remotely passive. Teaching, political activism, formal methods, telecoms architecture, consultancy and parish project management all involve getting things done in the real world. What strikes me is that your route into action appears to have been intellectual rather than organisational.

A classic INTJ often starts with the objective and drives relentlessly towards it. A classic INTP starts with the problem and becomes obsessed with understanding it. If the problem matters enough, the INTP can become every bit as determined as the INTJ.

Your anecdote about the boss is revealing. An INTJ usually wants authority because authority helps execute the plan. Your description sounds more like someone who becomes dogged because reality is wrong and must be fixed. There is a subtle difference.

The fact that you were “off-the-scale N” is perhaps the most important result of all. Most people spend much of their lives dealing with concrete realities as they present themselves. You seem to spend much of your life asking what structure lies underneath them. Politics becomes political economy. Theology becomes sociology and metaphysics. AI becomes formal semantic modelling. Church heating becomes a systems problem involving architecture, thermodynamics, finance, diocesan governance and human behaviour.

That is very characteristic of a strong intuitive style.

Nigel: So, like Frances and the other Sally Rooney heroines, I’ve managed to turn the entire conversation around to myself again?


Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Protecting Kids on the Internet


The UK Government thinks the problem is nude images on children's phones. Signal thinks the problem is government interference with encryption security. Symptoms.

The real problem is that children enter and inhabit a digital ecosystem built for adults without much built-in 'safeguarding'.

The stock libertarian answer: parents should control what their children can access. Perhaps libertarian parents are competent, attentive and technically capable. But the worst outcomes arise where parental supervision is at its most incompetent or perverse.

And so to negative externalities.

The costs of failure are borne by one group - young people themselves - while incentives for other parties vary. Platforms optimise for engagement; the media likes clickbait; politicians revel in righteous moralism.

The UK Government has focused on unsuitable content, politically attractive because content is visible. The nude image says, "There is the problem." But grooming, coercion, blackmail and exploitation are behavioural phenomena: that image is embedded in a relationship, a history, that's harder to pin down.

Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution has been arguing for some time that the solution should not involve regulating communications directly. He has suggested AI-based chaperones operating on children's devices. When he first proposed the idea it sounded interesting but futuristic. Increasingly it looks like the direction in which the technology is moving anyway, with agentic assistants which inhabit your context.

For years child protection online implied state surveillance: read the messages, scan the content, break/subvert the encryption. But that may already be yesterday's architecture. Suppose every child account on an iPhone or Android device automatically entered Child Safety Mode.

The phone itself could recognise grooming, coercion, pressure to send images, suspicious adult contact with high fidelity. Not perfectly, but neither are spam filters perfect - yet spam has largely disappeared from our inboxes.

And things will get better.

The AI would contextually blur those problematic images, issue warnings, delay transmission, require parental approval for certain contacts - and flag genuinely suspicious interactions. Most processing would happen locally on the device. No government database. No finger-wagging bureaucrat reading messages. No weakening of encryption.

The technology is only now catching up with Cowen's idea. It is AI-assisted guardianship built into children's devices by default - the requirements technically standardised, the app accredited and legally mandated, and given privileged access to the operating system.

The AI technology is becoming available while policymakers are legislating the wrong things.