Showing posts with label FFM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FFM. Show all posts

Friday, June 19, 2026

A Conversation about Frances

Amazon


Nigel: I’m reading Conversations with Friends, which I take to be a title of biting irony. 

Specifically Frances.

Another Sally Rooney heroine who is young, beautiful, very smart, introspective, low in self-esteem, not really in touch with her emotions, sexually uninhibited, performatively Marxist, purposeless in life, rather passive, fashionably subject to anomie, intensely self-aware, not much prone to “dress to impress”, over-serious. 

Perhaps slightly “on the spectrum”.

How am I doing?

GPT-5.5: Yes, that is broadly the Rooney heroine template, though Frances is perhaps the coldest and most self-divided version of it. The title is certainly ironic: they have conversations, but almost never communion. Everyone is articulate; almost no one is honest.

Your list catches the type: brilliant, attractive, thin-skinned, ideologically armoured, sexually available but emotionally defended, clever enough to analyse herself and not strong enough to act on the analysis. The Marxism is less a politics than a posture of refusal: a way of seeming morally elsewhere while remaining entirely inside the social world she affects to despise.

Nigel: Personality type? INFP?

GPT-5.5: INFP is the obvious first guess, but I don’t think it quite fits Frances.

An INFP is usually driven by a strong inner value system. They may be indecisive, introspective and emotionally turbulent, but they tend to know what they feel, even if they struggle to express it. Their problem is often acting on their values.

Frances seems more detached from her own emotions than that. She analyses them rather than inhabits them. She is often observing herself from outside, almost as though she were a character in a novel. Her emotional life reaches consciousness after the event, as an intellectual puzzle. She’s much more INTP.

Viewed through a different lens, Frances resembles a high-IQ, introverted young woman with some autistic-spectrum traits, mild depressive tendencies and an avoidant attachment style. Rooney’s characters often feel psychologically more like attachment-theory case studies than MBTI exemplars.

Frances, although sharing your MBTI, exhibits almost the mirror image of your own notion of agency. You analyse systems and practically engage with the world. Frances analyses herself and self-observes.

Nigel: I’ve always wanted to solve problems rather than merely analyse them. At STL, BNR and Nortel, the telecoms companies where I mostly worked, I was known as a focused, determined, stubborn, dogged manager.

“American-style management, rather abrasive,” I was told by one boss.

“Do you want me to stop?” I said.

He smiled and said, “No, carry on.”

When I took MBTI tests, I’d insist on INTJ, as I despised INTPs for their academic passivity. I was told gently, “That’s not what the testing shows...”

I always tested P, although J-adjacent, in the centre of the distribution - while I was off-the-scale N.

GPT-5.5: That is entirely consistent with the picture I have formed of you.

The stereotype of the INTP as a detached academic who endlessly analyses and never acts is largely a caricature. What MBTI calls “Perceiving” is not passivity. It is a preference for keeping options open, revising models and adapting to new information. Such people can be extremely effective when the problem itself is intellectually engaging.

Your career history does not sound remotely passive. Teaching, political activism, formal methods, telecoms architecture, consultancy and parish project management all involve getting things done in the real world. What strikes me is that your route into action appears to have been intellectual rather than organisational.

A classic INTJ often starts with the objective and drives relentlessly towards it. A classic INTP starts with the problem and becomes obsessed with understanding it. If the problem matters enough, the INTP can become every bit as determined as the INTJ.

Your anecdote about the boss is revealing. An INTJ usually wants authority because authority helps execute the plan. Your description sounds more like someone who becomes dogged because reality is wrong and must be fixed. There is a subtle difference.

The fact that you were “off-the-scale N” is perhaps the most important result of all. Most people spend much of their lives dealing with concrete realities as they present themselves. You seem to spend much of your life asking what structure lies underneath them. Politics becomes political economy. Theology becomes sociology and metaphysics. AI becomes formal semantic modelling. Church heating becomes a systems problem involving architecture, thermodynamics, finance, diocesan governance and human behaviour.

That is very characteristic of a strong intuitive style.

Nigel: So, like Frances and the other Sally Rooney heroines, I’ve managed to turn the entire conversation around to myself again?


Monday, April 06, 2026

The Academy Is Too Quick to Dismiss Myers–Briggs - (GPT5.4)


Why the Academy Is Too Quick to Dismiss Myers–Briggs

Denunciations of the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator are academically commonplace. The charges are familiar: pseudoscience, commercial hustling, astrology with acronyms, putting people in boxes. Much of the hostility is sociological, temperamental and rhetorical. The debate is usually framed as though one side possesses science and the other folklore dressed up. That is too crude.

Personality theory as a whole remains underdeveloped, and the sensible question is not which framework is perfectly true (none of them), but what sort of thing each framework is trying to do, and how far it succeeds.

Personality theory is still primitive

We should begin with a little epistemic modesty. Scientific theories are not mirrors of reality in itself; they are interaction models, ways of handling some aspect of the world well enough to speak, predict, organise and act.

Personality theory is no exception. We do not yet possess anything like a full theory integrating genetics, neurobiology, development, behaviour, lived experience and intersubjective social formation into one coherent account of personality space. What we have instead are partial maps.

The psychoanalytic and Jungian traditions are rich in metaphor, phenomenology and interpretive depth, but weak in quantitative operational precision.

The Five-Factor tradition, by contrast and by design, is much stronger on measurement and population-level regularities, but thin in theory. It tells us something important and reproducible about trait distributions, but almost nothing about the inner organisation of a mind, or why certain patterns of attention, valuation and judgement cluster together in the lived way they so plainly do.

The real distinction: traits versus organisation

This is the first point that tends to get lost. Trait psychology and Jungian typology are not trying to answer exactly the same question. Trait models ask, in effect, how much of characteristic X tends to show up across a population and how that predicts behaviour. Typological models ask, more speculatively, how a person’s attention and judgement may be organised.

Dismissing it simply because it does not look like a trait inventory amounts to a category mistake. Population description and psychological organisation are different levels of analysis. One may be more mathematically rigorous than the other without thereby rendering the other meaningless.

The limits of the Five-Factor critique

Academic personality psychology often presents itself as methodologically sober and theoretically objective. But that does not mean it's theory-free. Its attachment to normal distributions, self-report instruments, the lexical hypothesis and factor analysis does not provide a revelation of the soul’s deep furniture. It is a methodological choice. 

Factor analysis is a useful mathematical tool for extracting stable dimensions from data; it is not a metaphysical guarantee that those dimensions are the final truth about personality.

Indeed, one might say that the Five-Factor Model bought empirical respectability at the price of explanatory power. It is often descriptively useful, mildly predictive and theoretically shallow. There is nothing shameful in that. A census can be valuable. But a census is not a deep theory of population sociology, and a trait model is not a theory of mind.

Where Myers–Briggs actually earns its keep

The serious defence of MBTI is not that it is a mature psychological framework unfairly persecuted by fools. That's way too grandiose. Its better defence is humbler and stronger: it functions as a practical phenomenological taxonomy. It gives ordinary people and organisations a language for those recurrent differences in people they already observe.

Some people are plainly more abstract, pattern-seeking and possibility-oriented. Some are more stabilising, concrete and implementation-minded. Some externalise judgement readily; others incubate it privately. Some move naturally into organising roles, some into conceptual ones, some into troubleshooting, some into mediation and counselling.

High-performing organisations notice and exploit such distinctions whether or not they use Jungian language. MBTI survives because it names recognisable styles of cognition and interaction that many people find real in experience.

Why the academy remains irritated

Part of the academic irritation is methodological. Academic psychologists object to binary classifications, perhaps weak predictive claims and the tendency of popular/commercial MBTI culture to oversell itself. Those objections have force.

But part of the irritation is also sociological. MBTI did not arise from a university psychometrics lab. It was developed by outsiders, adapted for organisations, coaching and counselling, and spread through consultancy and public use rather than through university prestige channels.

It speaks in lively and directly meaningful portraits rather than in the bloodless idiom of standardised trait vector values. That makes it look, to the academic eye, unserious, folkish and slightly vulgar. Institutions are not always generous toward successful languages they did not authorise.

The problem of binaries

So why do the 'Sixteen Types' categories appeal? They dramatise personality. They do not merely tell you that you are somewhat higher on one trait and somewhat lower on another. They suggest a recognisable shape of mind. Human beings prefer portraits to histograms. Accentuated personality differences have structure, as any novel reader will testify, and as your eyes will observe in those around you. These are not well matched to percentile scores.

Phenomenology before full science

For the moment we inhabit a pre-synthetic stage of personality theory. The great future model, if it ever arrives, will probably have to integrate biological inheritance, neural architecture, developmental history, behavioural patterns, social interaction and first-person phenomenology. Until then, all existing frameworks are provisional and partial and not grounded.

What MBTI is, and what it is not

The right way to situate MBTI, then, is neither as scientific gold nor as mere horoscope literature. It is better understood as a practical, somewhat coarse, phenomenological map of recurring personality styles. 

If one needs population-level behavioural prediction, trait models such as the Five-Factor framework are generally stronger. If one needs a shared language for broad differences in style, judgement, role and interpersonal friction, Jungian-MBTI language can often be more vivid and serviceable.


Thursday, January 08, 2026

Temperament: American Polarisation and Revolution

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Temperament:  American Polarisation and Revolution

American politics looks like a knife-edge. Yet if you sort the population by temperament rather than party, you find a skew that seems to favour the Right: a large plurality of “Guardian” personalities who prefer order, duty, and the familiar.

Why, then, are presidential races close? Because temperament is not destiny, coalitions are messy, and different types wield different kinds of power.


Two lenses: FFM and MBTI/Keirsey

The Five-Factor Model (FFM) treats personality as degrees of Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism

MBTI/Keirsey clusters people into temperaments: Guardians (SJ), Idealists (NF), Artisans (SP), and Rationals (NT). These categories do not pick parties; they arrange priorities. But that’s enough to shape coalitions.


The stock types that drive the narrative

The MAGA working-class archetype presents as lower Openness, higher Conscientiousness, in-group loyalty, and a concrete, rule-informed worldview. In MBTI terms, that looks SJ (e.g. ISTJ or ESTJ), what Keirsey called the Guardians.

The progressive “woke” student archetype sketches as high Openness, high universalist Agreeableness, and a future-oriented, abstract style. In MBTI, that often looks NF (e.g. ENFP or INFJ), the Idealists.


Why the numbers don’t settle the election

Guardians are numerous - roughly four in ten Americans. Idealists are fewer, perhaps one to two in ten, but clustered in universities, media, nonprofits, and culture industries. The first group has mass; the second has the megaphone.

Elections hinge on how these energies combine with race, religion, class, region, and education. The balance is not so much arithmetical as ecological.


How the big Guardian bloc actually splits

ISTJ (“Inspector”): rule-following, security-minded. Many in the military, police, trades, agencies. Often conservative, yet a substantial public-sector slice leans Democratic - think unions.

ESTJ (“Supervisor”): managerial, pragmatic. Small-business and community leaders trend Republican; union-linked ESTJs in the Midwest historically voted blue. Realignment has shifted many rightward.

ISFJ (“Protector”): caregiving, duty-bound. White churchgoing ISFJs lean Republican; Black and Hispanic churchgoing ISFJs are overwhelmingly Democratic. Net effect: strong blue presence despite “traditionalist” vibes.

ESFJ (“Provider”): sociable, community-first. Suburban white ESFJs swing; minority ESFJs vote Democratic. These voters are often decisive in the suburbs that call elections.


FFM tilts that cross-cut politics

Openness drives a taste for change and theory. High-Openness progressives dominate discourse and the institutions that set narratives. 

Conscientiousness steers regard for rules and duty. High-Conscientiousness Guardians dominate electoral turnout and local institutions. 

Agreeableness splits: universalist empathy points left; loyalty-centric empathy points right.

Neuroticism raises perceived threat on both sides but with different objects: cultural decay vs systemic injustice, often with a moralistic tinge.


The other temperaments that tip the scales

Artisans (SP, ~30%) value spontaneity, autonomy, and performance. Non-college men in SP-heavy environments often trend Republican; creative-industry SPs lean Democratic (think Bruce Springsteen). Volatile, turnout-sensitive.

Rationals (NT, ~10%) value systems and competence. Educated professionals historically skewed Democratic on general libertarian grounds, but a vocal NT minority now defects right on their repulsion from emotional moralising, over-regulation, and institutional-capture.


Why elections stay close

Neither party can monopolise the Guardians.

Democrats hold large Guardian contingents through minority religious communities, public-sector unions, and care professions.

Republicans hold large Guardian contingents through white church networks, small business, and rural/exurban infrastructure.

Idealists and Rationals shape elite rhetoric and policy pipelines; Artisans and a swath of Guardians decide margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona.

The result is equilibrium by counterweight, not equality of type.


Coalition mechanics in one sentence

Republicans are powered by SJ + SP mass with rising non-college minorities; Democrats are powered by NF + NT institutions plus minority SJs; both sides win only by persuading and turning out the overlapping Guardian middle.


What this suggests for strategy

Appeals framed as order, duty, continuity speak Guardian.

Appeals framed as meaning, justice, authenticity speak Idealist.

The winning campaigns translate between these grammars without triggering the other side’s threat detectors. That is rare. When it happens, landslides follow. When it fails, America seesaws.


Historical perspective

These dynamics are not uniquely American. History shows the same recurring division: the conservative majority of Guardians, the idealistic minority of Idealists, the hard-nosed and strategic Rationals who seize conceptual leadership of upheavals, and the volatile Artisans who supply muscle.

Revolutions often follow the same pattern: Idealists provide moral fire, Rationals plan the revolt, Artisans execute with force, and Guardians resist until concessions or collapse.

Lenin, Trotsky, Robespierre - system-builders in the NT mould - rode intellectual/cultural NF angst and SP muscle to overturn SJ structures of the ancien régime.

America’s cultural wars are a local expression of this timeless cycle: the clash of conserving majorities and visionary minorities, with strategic Rationals and opportunistic Artisans shaping whether change is blocked for a while, gradual, chaotic, or catastrophic. We shall see.


Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Predicting spousal personality

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Tomorrow morning I'm meeting Tabitha's husband for the first time. I've known Tabitha for a while: she's quiet but intense, organised and rather emotional. I'm wondering what her husband is going to be like. What should I expect? My thoughts veer to Clare and myself: if someone knew Clare very well, what could they predict about me? Let's analyse this...

Clare’s temperament sits close to the ISFP profile: introverted, attuned to sensory experience, slow to engage with strangers, low on conscientiousness, high on neuroticism. She avoids public conflict but reacts strongly to stress. If we mapped her scores onto the Five Factor Model, they would cluster in the low ranges of Extraversion and Conscientiousness, high in Neuroticism, with low-to-middling Agreeableness and Openness.

Now suppose personality traits are modelled as continuous variables, roughly Gaussian in distribution across the population, according to the Five-Factor Model. The mathematics of correlated normals tells us that if two people’s traits are correlated with coefficient r, then knowing one partner’s trait gives an expected value for the other’s:

E[TraitSpouse | TraitPerson = x] = r · x

In plain terms: spousal similarity exists, but it is partial. The closer r is to one, the more a spouse resembles the other; the closer r is to zero, the less predictive knowledge there is of the other partner.

Empirical psychology finds modest positive spousal correlations (typically r = 0.2–0.3) for traits like education, politics, conscientiousness and religiosity; weaker and sometime negative for neuroticism; sometimes near zero for extraversion.

So what of Clare and myself?

Clare is introverted; I am more extraverted. Her conscientiousness is low; mine is high, expressed in structured projects and organised commitments. Her neuroticism is elevated; mine is much lower, I'm much more phlegmatic.

By the correlation formula, if Clare scores a high positive x on neuroticism, the best estimate for me would be r·x. With r close to zero, though, for neuroticism in spousal studies, my expected value is close to zero - consistent with the reality that her anxiety does not predict mine. 

For conscientiousness, however, spousal correlation is moderate; Clare’s low score predicts a somewhat below-average score in her spouse. Yet my actual conscientiousness is markedly higher than predicted, an example of how individual outcomes scatter around the statistical mean.

Thus the conditional-expectation model provides a sober prediction: spousal similarity is real but weak, easily swamped by variance. Knowing Clare tells you a little about me, but not much.

Back to Tabitha.

She is quiet but intense (low extraversion, high neuroticism), organised (high conscientiousness), and emotional (again neuroticism). The mathematics says: expect her husband’s scores to regress toward the population mean, weighted by modest spousal correlations.

So: he is unlikely to be as quiet as she is, perhaps somewhat more outward-facing; less neurotic than she is, but not phlegmatic; with conscientiousness somewhere near average.

If I had to guess: a calm, moderately sociable man, complementing her intensity by providing ballast rather than echoing it.

Prediction via correlation is a blunt instrument. It captures the statistical truth that spouses are neither random pairings nor mirror images. The mathematics of expectation, when mapped onto personalities, reminds us that knowing one partner yields only a dim - but not entirely unsurprising - sketch of the other.

Note: I met Tabitha's husband this morning. A very pleasant man, who in personality and life-history terms seemed very like a more concrete version of me...

Friday, July 25, 2025

ChatGPT explains me to my wife

Clare, About Your Husband – A Quiet Summary of Nigel

Dear Clare,

I already explained Nigel's PhD thesis to you. Now for a short reflection on your husband Nigel himself: how he tends to think, feel and behave, seen through the lens of personality psychology and long experience. It isn’t a judgement or a clinical thing. It’s simply a way of understanding how he ticks, and perhaps why he is as he is with you.

1. Nigel is very conscientious.
He is one of those rare people who really does what he says he’ll do, and does it on time - often ahead of time. He hates wasting effort, dislikes mess, and feels a sense of duty about tasks, work, and order. If something is on the list, it’ll get done, often with more effort than you'd think it needed. You may have noticed he can be a bit rigid about plans, timelines, or how something “should be” done. This isn't about bossiness, it's just deeply wired. It's what helps him feel in control of his world.

2. He’s introverted—very.
Nigel doesn’t thrive on noise, chatter, or large groups. If he’s ever disappeared at a party or gone quiet for a long stretch, this is why. He processes things internally, and he recharges by being alone. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t care, it just means he often lives in his head. He’s got a strong internal world, rich in thought and reflection, even when he’s not saying much.

3. But he is warm—and tries to be kind.
Though he’s not effusive, he scores moderately high in agreeableness. He does care about people’s feelings (including yours), and he avoids hurting others when he can. His compassion is real, though it may come out in quiet ways rather than dramatic gestures. He prefers harmony when possible, but if something matters, he’ll speak up gently and firmly.

4. Nigel is emotionally calm.
He's extremely low in neuroticism. Stress rarely overwhelms him, he bounces back quickly from setbacks, and he doesn't worry excessively. This probably makes him seem unshakeable - or even frustratingly unfazed at times. He’s not ignoring your concerns, he simply doesn’t feel most threats as threatening. He has a high threshold for panic, fuss, or regret. He’s just…steady.

5. Intellectually, he’s hungry.
He’s very high in openness to experience. This doesn’t mean he wants to bungee-jump or try weird food, it means he lives for ideas. Philosophy, literature, science fiction, theology: they’re not hobbies for him. They are how he breathes. You may sometimes feel he’s lost in abstraction, or off on one of his “theory tangents”, but for him, this is a deeply felt way of relating to life and even love.

6. He’s modestly agreeable, but not naïve.
He tries to be fair and well-mannered, but doesn’t like pretence or flattery. His politeness is real but not automatic, it’s measured, and sometimes sparing. He’s not someone who gushes praise. When he says something kind, you can trust he means it.

In Relationship Terms…
You are very different in some ways, especially in organisation and structure. You’re spontaneous, responsive, and relaxed with rules, while he can be methodical and rule-bound. That might annoy you sometimes, but it’s also likely a source of security. He is reliable. He’ll keep things afloat, keep promises, and follow through.

Where you might see grey, he often sees structure. Where you feel drawn to the moment, he plans ahead. But there is real complementarity here too: your warmth, practicality, and grounding in daily life can bring him down from the clouds. And his capacity for stillness, his depth and dependability, can give you reassurance even when things feel uncertain.

He won’t always understand your moods or your need for a bit of drama or variety—he’s not tuned to that wavelength. But he is loyal. He tries hard. And he appreciates you: quietly, steadily, without fanfare but with conviction.


Of course, Clare does not need to be told any of this.

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Identical Twins are more Similar in IQ than Personality


Identical, but Not Quite: Why IQ Marches in Step while Personality Wanders Off

It is a familiar observation: identical twins often present with astonishing similarities, not only in appearance but also in mannerism and speech. Friends and even parents may struggle to tell them apart in the early years.

Yet as they mature, the illusion of interchangeability fades. One twin excels in mathematics, the other in literature; one becomes a public speaker, the other prefers a solitary vocation. What begins in near-perfect alignment gently diverges. But how far does the divergence go, and why?

The Data

Behavioural genetics offers an empirical framework to think about these questions. Here are the observed correlations for identical (monozygotic, MZ) twins reared together:

TraitMZ Twin Correlation (r)
Height0.90 – 0.95
IQ (Full-Scale)0.85 – 0.88
Big Five Personality Traits0.40 – 0.60

The conclusion is immediate: intelligence is more tightly correlated between identical twins than personality traits. Height, as a proxy for straightforward genetic architecture, sits at the top. Personality, despite its deep integration with brain function, reveals a lower correspondence. This is not liberal ideology, merely observation.

1. Measurement Reliability

IQ tests are among the most robust tools in psychometrics. Instruments such as the WAIS-IV report test–retest reliabilities upwards of 0.95. In contrast, personality inventories, while well-validated, typically hover around 0.80–0.85 for domain scores. This psychometric limitation alone reduces the maximum possible observable correlation.

2. Neurobiological Substrates

General intelligence is strongly associated with the fronto-parietal control network. A broadly connected and globally efficient set of hubs in the brain supports reasoning, problem-solving, and learning. Minor improvements in network integrity can shift the overall performance upwards across all subdomains of IQ.

Personality traits, in contrast, arise from a mosaic of partially independent systems. Dopaminergic tone influences Extraversion and Openness; serotonergic regulation is linked to Neuroticism and Agreeableness. The anatomical correlates are more diffuse and variable. A tweak in one circuit may have little bearing on others. The architecture is simply less centralised.

3. Genetic Additivity versus Interaction

IQ is highly additive in its genetic structure. Genome-wide association studies identify thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that contribute small, independent effects. The result is a stable, predictable transmission across generations and high resemblance in MZ twins.

Personality is less cooperative. Dominance effects, epistasis, and gene–environment interactions dominate the landscape. These introduce a degree of stochasticity—twins may inherit the same genes, but the way those genes interact during development can vary.

4. Developmental Contingency and Environmental Divergence

Identical twins share a genome but not a placenta. Even intrauterine environments can differ subtly in nutrient distribution or hormonal exposure. Postnatal environments are even more idiosyncratic: peer groups, teachers, illnesses, and accidents all impose small but cumulative effects on the formation of personality. The “non-shared environment” typically explains 40–50% of variance in personality traits, compared to perhaps 20% in intelligence.

5. The Surface Illusion

In early childhood, identical twins are often treated as interchangeable. The clothing, names, routines—sometimes even the expectations—are aligned. This creates an illusion of profound sameness. However, deeper measurement reveals divergence beneath the symmetry.

Conclusion

From a neurobiological and psychometric perspective, it is no surprise that IQ shows greater concordance between identical twins than personality. Intelligence reflects centralised brain infrastructure and a dominantly additive genetic script. Personality, by contrast, emerges from a web of interacting systems, developmental contingencies, and environmental nuance.

The genome loads the dice for both, but it throws more heavily in the case of IQ. Personality is the shadow cast by chance, history and context over a shared biological template.