tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-186484362024-03-18T15:30:14.566+00:00Wading Through Treacle"Nothing in Biology (and Social Science) Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution"Nigel Seelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407392760306614271noreply@blogger.comBlogger3084125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-79962872862617002272024-03-18T08:57:00.003+00:002024-03-18T08:57:49.403+00:00Formal Logic in SF: 'Foundation'<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Below is the extract from "<i>Foundation</i>" by Isaac Asimov that I’m mulling over. As a young teenager it first got me interested in Predicate Calculus, which much later I studied in <a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/2010/05/intentional-description-of-reactive.html">my AI research</a>.</span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0LNRygJ3aFbV-JEfh45o-VSN2TtZpywIfEKh1Fv-rr5Re1dHjHT1Fi_59UC1Xvmtm9ilHuM506SRnNW6WkvDQA0Q7mOrJsjbMY2FvfrbnrkhTO60Nv1wPoYJbep7iAHe2PgTcAnCrPJrqMr6XoxBi17R4JZdVJUyqa9jFMV04ELadO6-lXopweQ/s459/Foundation-Trilogy.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="300" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0LNRygJ3aFbV-JEfh45o-VSN2TtZpywIfEKh1Fv-rr5Re1dHjHT1Fi_59UC1Xvmtm9ilHuM506SRnNW6WkvDQA0Q7mOrJsjbMY2FvfrbnrkhTO60Nv1wPoYJbep7iAHe2PgTcAnCrPJrqMr6XoxBi17R4JZdVJUyqa9jFMV04ELadO6-lXopweQ/s320/Foundation-Trilogy.jpg" width="209" /></b></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><br />The Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's the extract.
</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"Said Yate Fulham: "And just how do you arrive at that remarkable conclusion, Mr. Mayor?"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"In a rather simple way. It merely required the use of that much-neglected commodity – common sense. You see, there is a branch of human knowledge known as symbolic logic, which can be used to prune away all sorts of clogging deadwood that clutters up human language."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"What about it?" said Fulham.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"I applied it. Among other things, I applied it to this document here. I didn't really need to for myself because I knew what it was all about, but I think I can explain it more easily to five physical scientists by symbols rather than by words."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hardin removed a few sheets of paper from the pad under his arm and spread them out. "I didn't do this myself, by the way," he said. "Muller Holk of the Division of Logic has his name signed to the analyses, as you can see."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Pirenne leaned over the table to get a better view and Hardin continued:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"The message from Anacreon was a simple problem, naturally, for the men who wrote it were men of action rather than men of words. It boils down easily and straightforwardly to the unqualified statement, when in symbols is what you see, and which in words, roughly translated, is, 'You give us what we want in a week, or we take it by force.'"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">There was silence as the five members of the Board ran down the line of symbols, and then Pirenne sat down and coughed uneasily.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hardin said, "No loophole, is there, Dr. Pirenne?"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"Doesn't seem to be."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"All right." Hardin replaced the sheets. "Before you now you see a copy of the treaty between the Empire and Anacreon – a treaty, incidentally, which is signed on the Emperor's behalf by the same Lord Dorwin who was here last week – and with it a symbolic analysis."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The treaty ran through five pages of fine print and the analysis was scrawled out in just under half a page.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"As you see, gentlemen, something like ninety percent of the treaty boiled right out of the analysis as being meaningless, and what we end up with can be described in the following interesting manner:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"Obligations of Anacreon to the Empire: None!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"Powers of the Empire over Anacreon: None!"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Again the five followed the reasoning anxiously, checking carefully back to the treaty, and when they were finished, Pirenne said in a worried fashion, "That seems to be correct."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"You admit, then, that the treaty is nothing but a declaration of total independence on the part of Anacreon and a recognition of that status by the Empire?"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"It seems so."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"And do you suppose that Anacreon doesn't realize that, and is not anxious to emphasize the position of independence – so that it would naturally tend to resent any appearance of threats from the Empire? Particularly when it is evident that the Empire is powerless to fulfill any such threats, or it would never have allowed independence."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"But then," interposed Sutt, "how would Mayor Hardin account for Lord Dorwin's assurances of Empire support? They seemed –" He shrugged. "Well, they seemed satisfactory."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hardin threw himself back in the chair. "You know, that's the most interesting part of the whole business. I'll admit I had thought his Lordship a most consummate donkey when I first met him – but it turned out that he was actually an accomplished diplomat and a most clever man. I took the liberty of recording all his statements."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">There was a flurry, and Pirenne opened his mouth in horror.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"What of it?" demanded Hardin. "I realize it was a gross breach of hospitality and a thing no so-called gentleman would do. Also, that if his lordship had caught on, things might have been unpleasant; but he didn't, and I have the record, and that's that. I took that record, had it copied out and sent that to Holk for analysis, also."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Lundin Crast said, "And where is the analysis?"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"That," replied Hardin, "is the interesting thing. The analysis was the most difficult of the three by all odds. When Holk, after two days of steady work, succeeded in eliminating meaningless statements, vague gibberish, useless qualifications – in short, all the goo and dribble – he found he had nothing left. Everything canceled out."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"Lord Dorwin, gentlemen, in five days of discussion didn't say one damned thing, and said it so you never noticed. There are the assurances you had from your precious Empire."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hardin might have placed an actively working stench bomb on the table and created no more confusion than existed after his last statement."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Many people - mostly economists, it seems - have cited psychohistory as the reason they entered their profession. For me it prepared the way for the <a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/search?q=IMG">International Marxist Group</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But today I'm more interested in what ‘symbolic logic’ did for Salvor Hardin.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Within the paradigm of formal logic, the natural language texts Hardin gave to the ‘Division of Logic’ would most likely have been mapped to Richard Montague's baroque fusion of higher-order predicate calculus, lambda calculus and multi-modal logics. Computationally intractable, as it turns out.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="1156" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgheSoiIaxU5n5dmVNoevPqJnhzgjhc6R24OoWNkce8BpfN2ZihQQ227KcuaQUMzk01vgXhJjQwlujVl2M95wSYT1sDJuUQ7_y5ks6-ymvYvr3R82zt12nE4v6oU_pC-yFxauQhugHoUyv9lVaNFTesjGpmr2QpawmYZGxI2kAl0oPEnurgupbqpg/s320/Montague-Logic.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="320" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montague_grammar"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Translating English into Montague's formal logic</b></span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgheSoiIaxU5n5dmVNoevPqJnhzgjhc6R24OoWNkce8BpfN2ZihQQ227KcuaQUMzk01vgXhJjQwlujVl2M95wSYT1sDJuUQ7_y5ks6-ymvYvr3R82zt12nE4v6oU_pC-yFxauQhugHoUyv9lVaNFTesjGpmr2QpawmYZGxI2kAl0oPEnurgupbqpg/s1156/Montague-Logic.png"><span style="color: black;"></span></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">But a suitable LLM in summarisation mode could do the job in seconds.</span><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-70348286886438558032024-03-15T20:13:00.000+00:002024-03-15T20:13:45.759+00:00San Gimignano (June 2014)<p><span style="font-size: medium;">We were in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Gimignano">San Gimignano</a> in June 2014, almost ten years ago. It's northwest of Siena and southwest of Florence. Amongst the attractions is a <a href="http://www.torturemuseum.it/en/permanent-museums/san-gimignano/">torture museum</a>: click on the link for pictures: I have never forgotten it.</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnW-RiZHpDhYJQ8hyphenhyphenem6Fm-BX-y8Rg0p6S3RAIFyzsaZJmFGO6Rry-POnHf-GHuT0xENMPXGvnZ6RXmOhueHf-9nosquub12QRyu0kM1VG4tZ9hQC6uTg9PGH66WyPUSBccKaSdmsk2k_G5X-4h4jh_mn7pBRavfM9ih-5YMHpXuDKfpiKnkn1xA/s576/Clare%20in%20Italy%20in%20June%202014%20artist%20sketch%20cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="473" data-original-width="576" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnW-RiZHpDhYJQ8hyphenhyphenem6Fm-BX-y8Rg0p6S3RAIFyzsaZJmFGO6Rry-POnHf-GHuT0xENMPXGvnZ6RXmOhueHf-9nosquub12QRyu0kM1VG4tZ9hQC6uTg9PGH66WyPUSBccKaSdmsk2k_G5X-4h4jh_mn7pBRavfM9ih-5YMHpXuDKfpiKnkn1xA/s320/Clare%20in%20Italy%20in%20June%202014%20artist%20sketch%20cropped.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This sketch of Clare on a rampart of the city walls gives a sense of the vacation: also the power of current AI systems to synthesise 'art' from a <a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/search?q=San+Gimignano">more mundane picture</a>.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-631599070204555562024-03-14T11:30:00.014+00:002024-03-14T11:30:00.138+00:00'In the Courts of Three Popes' - Mary Ann Glendon<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6VJ4NoLsFTdFvrOenw3vG8wJxuyr3yR9ZsAYvJWYlCvvW-e7xhibsgJ5ZT2c0TN8uPRCgADwPr1sIy6K2QDccXWTXkJF2sxpMi1yP88lfqC0dfYthTeYJ6Pvd9vdAu_GeSf1JQjgq7PSmxAEUjYMwRINXNh-nCGB7TNXyEe-TmsUaR5CF8MWuw/s1500/In%20the%20Courts%20of%20Three%20Popes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="1000" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6VJ4NoLsFTdFvrOenw3vG8wJxuyr3yR9ZsAYvJWYlCvvW-e7xhibsgJ5ZT2c0TN8uPRCgADwPr1sIy6K2QDccXWTXkJF2sxpMi1yP88lfqC0dfYthTeYJ6Pvd9vdAu_GeSf1JQjgq7PSmxAEUjYMwRINXNh-nCGB7TNXyEe-TmsUaR5CF8MWuw/s320/In%20the%20Courts%20of%20Three%20Popes.jpg" width="213" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Courts-Three-Popes-American-Diplomat-ebook/dp/B0C5VBNX12/"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">https://www.amazon.co.uk/Courts-Three-Popes-American-Diplomat-ebook/dp/B0C5VBNX12/</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here is an edited version of <a href="https://www.wheelersbooks.co.nz/product/In-the-Courts-of-Three-Popes-An-American-Lawyer-and-Diplomat-in-the-Last-Absolute-Monarchy-of-the-West-Mary-Ann-Glendon/9780593443750">this review</a>, expressing my take on this interesting book.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">'"<i>In my years of service to the Holy See, I was a stranger in a rather strange land - a layperson in a culture dominated by clergy, an American woman in an environment that was largely male and Italian, and a citizen of a constitutional republic in one of the world's last absolute monarchies.</i>" </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So declares Harvard professor Mary Ann Glendon as she addresses some of the most vexing issues in the Catholic Church today, from the work to protect women's rights internationally, to responding to clergy sexual abuse, to address hypocrisy regarding sexuality within the clerisy, to the corruption of the Vatican Bank and Roman Curia. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In Pope John Paul II's words, the Church enters the third millennium on its knees in penance for failures such as clerical sex abuse, or in failing to lead the way for lay women to hold positions of power in the Church. If John Paul II neglected administration, allowing the Vatican bureaucracy full sway, his successor, Pope Benedict XVI, simply buckled under the pernicious pressures of the Vatican establishment. Glendon is not an unrestrained admirer of the current Pope Francis, seeing him as arbitrary, capricious and needlessly losing too many battles with corrupt and self-serving institutions.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Glendon illuminates the issues vexing the Church today: the place of faith in secular politics, relating the Church to other religions, clericalism and the power of laypeople, and corruption at the Vatican Bank and within the Roman Curia. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Despite its many failings, she argues that the Catholic Church is yet a living, breathing global community. Behind doctrines and policies and institutions lie people, personalities, aspirations, and relationships that still promise to transform lives.'</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The book is not as interesting as it could have been. In style one may infer that Mary Ann Glendon is a hostess type: gregarious, of firm principles, humane, practical, orthodox.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A Myers-Briggs ESFJ. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A hard-hitting, forensic analysis of institutional failure this is not: (see, by contrast, "<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy-ebook/dp/B07NJ9DQSK/">In the Closet of the Vatican: Power, Homosexuality, Hypocrisy</a>" by Frederic Martel).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Journalists are of course in the business of exposing crime, weakness and hypocrisy. But in the round the Catholic Church is much more than the Vatican bureaucracy. When it is operating with its mission statement and founder in mind, it is a unique force, generally for the good, on our planet. If only the centre could be sorted out!</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-19449131624235281392024-03-12T15:58:00.000+00:002024-03-12T15:58:07.858+00:00The Notebooks of Lazarus Long - Robert A. Heinlein<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi7b43gKHuC830CKWYGa2TBLiJdDjvbIbzRuSlLVRtxuwJm5Nhf7lKs6OxYjPaVoBvh-lHkujWMZVmT4EWk3NiEBQYOShmUZB9fVcYQXaaj1G-l2x18wG5NQr_SSIaFJpoW30Rk1hOs0Pxya6X96hkZf6vYfm67dWRKM8eVUtPrydehhZLGZxd3w/s445/Time-Enough-For-Love.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="296" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi7b43gKHuC830CKWYGa2TBLiJdDjvbIbzRuSlLVRtxuwJm5Nhf7lKs6OxYjPaVoBvh-lHkujWMZVmT4EWk3NiEBQYOShmUZB9fVcYQXaaj1G-l2x18wG5NQr_SSIaFJpoW30Rk1hOs0Pxya6X96hkZf6vYfm67dWRKM8eVUtPrydehhZLGZxd3w/s320/Time-Enough-For-Love.jpg" width="213" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Time-Enough-Love-Lazarus-Science/dp/0593437241/"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">https://www.amazon.co.uk/Time-Enough-Love-Lazarus-Science/dp/0593437241/</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I'm back into Heinlein mode.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Time_Enough_for_Love"><b>A human being should be able to</b></a>: </span></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: medium;">change a diaper</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">plan an invasion</span></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">butcher a hog</span></i></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">conn a ship</span></i></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">design a building</span></i></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">write a sonnet</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">balance accounts</span></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">build a wall</span></i></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">set a bone</span></i></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">comfort the dying</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">take orders</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">give orders</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">cooperate</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">act alone</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">solve equations</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">analyze a new problem</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">pitch manure</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">program a computer</span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;">cook a tasty meal</span></li><li><i><span style="font-size: medium;">fight efficiently</span></i></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>die gallantly</i>.</span></li></ol><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Specialization is for insects</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I set in italics those obligations which I am either plainly unable to do, or have no idea whether I could (I would <i>like</i> to not <i>italicise</i> numbers 20 and 21).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Where did Heinlein get this list? </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's implicitly gendered: it says 'human being' but reads as 'man': surely his list for women would be different - indeed we know so from <a href="https://libquotes.com/robert-a-heinlein/quotes/women">elsewhere</a>. It's a combination of artisanal (hogs; wall-building) and intellectual (invasion; programming). It reflects the culture of the western frontiersman transferred in time to the mid-twentieth century. But it also speaks to deep truths in human nature: the masculine virtues of good men with useful skills courageously banding together to defend against threats to their communities.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The fact that Heinlein's list stirs the emotions witnesses to its elemental truth.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Currently disparaged and despised, the need for Heinlein's ethos will be with us again soon enough.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here are <a href="https://www.baen.com/chapters/W200408/The_Notebooks_of_Lazarus_Long.htm">some more Heinlein aphorisms</a> from (the intermissions within) the novel above.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-81437838143488654202024-03-10T14:00:00.032+00:002024-03-10T14:00:00.157+00:00Our 'Pre-War' Situation Today<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXJ2MkpZItYZCUUtXv5bLJML6PboDvFvRbIAhpags4AkOax1fCWGnV56U_1Pp5M5FuX_akEPDAkN5E6C7n84pLRgj30rG5K0vLZNdWGT7_YnrSrNaX3fs7ddAhatm6V004Yp_K3yygMU1ICVaL-ICGcUVMh4IfwPMwgZ-5GckbL64YhnNj1eryUA/s1024/PreWar.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXJ2MkpZItYZCUUtXv5bLJML6PboDvFvRbIAhpags4AkOax1fCWGnV56U_1Pp5M5FuX_akEPDAkN5E6C7n84pLRgj30rG5K0vLZNdWGT7_YnrSrNaX3fs7ddAhatm6V004Yp_K3yygMU1ICVaL-ICGcUVMh4IfwPMwgZ-5GckbL64YhnNj1eryUA/s320/PreWar.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">British military commentators and some politicians state that we are in a ‘pre-war’ situation today, referencing Russia and China.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">We need to revitalise our military, which is undermanned and underequipped (true). We need deeper roots for military culture within our society, to be facilitated by a trained civilian reserve force.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But what is really motivating our presumed adversaries? </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Let me quote from Jack Watling’s book, “<a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-arms-of-future-jack-watling-review.html">The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century</a>” chapter 13.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">“For Vladimir Putin – prior to the invasion of 24 February – Ukraine was understood to be a recalcitrant Russian province. He believed there was widespread sympathy for Russia in the country. He also believed that a fait accompli seizing a limited number of key objectives in a matter of days would bring about the collapse of wider resistance, and the unwillingness of the West to intervene or oppose the seizure. The Russians intervened without mobilising, and assessed – incorrectly – that the localised correlation of forces was favourable. In short, Russia did not conduct the operation based on an assessment of Ukraine’s aggregate combat power augmented with Western support, but rather based on its belief that it could achieve a rapid and localised victory.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"China similarly views Taiwan as a province of China and its military activities, from the setting up of bastions in the South China Sea on reclaimed atolls to its long-range strike capabilities, are clearly intended to enable the isolation of Taiwan to achieve a rapid limited seizure. It anticipates a ‘local war under informatised conditions’ using long-range precision strike and nuclear threats to deter broader escalation.”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The set of countries the Russian leadership takes to be “recalcitrant provinces” (the Baltic states? Poland?) seems unlikely to include Western Europe, however. And all the more so for China.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So we are talking more about preserving the boundaries of the Western sphere of influence (and of course the congenial freedoms of people within this space) rather than an existential threat to our own way of life in the UK.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This surely explains the reluctance of the British state (even more so the western states of the EU) to spend real money and expend political capital on defence.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For what it's worth I am not fond of a future dominated by the arrogant and domineering states of Russia and China. Nor do I approve of incorporating people by force into unpleasant regimes. I would thoroughly support an enhanced British military with broad civil society roots.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">You might say: who is really interested in the destruction and human suffering of war? But of course, </span><a href="https://www.thearticle.com/you-may-not-be-interested-in-war-but-war-is-interested-in-you"><span style="font-size: medium;">Leon Trotsky was righ</span>t</a>.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-39153652952399952942024-03-09T15:22:00.001+00:002024-03-09T16:55:33.146+00:00"The Arms of the Future" - Jack Watling (review)<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCN3be0-4KewWd4pC-GOrwitzIhzmLwvb7zfrIW3qXAHSEhUdTcufBfbkQcCbv8fSsRx4yYKuDdQu5DHseddrTSsUC_sUiBC3Kz6r2ZUBbGPGjcg0ochkxm601hAj37LEmdGs9j4egn8Ecp8z2gBBSfGiEMJtg3xcdaS9dyozQ0sve72eKJh5yWA/s400/Jack-Watling.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="267" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCN3be0-4KewWd4pC-GOrwitzIhzmLwvb7zfrIW3qXAHSEhUdTcufBfbkQcCbv8fSsRx4yYKuDdQu5DHseddrTSsUC_sUiBC3Kz6r2ZUBbGPGjcg0ochkxm601hAj37LEmdGs9j4egn8Ecp8z2gBBSfGiEMJtg3xcdaS9dyozQ0sve72eKJh5yWA/s320/Jack-Watling.jpg" width="214" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I asked Gemini to summarise <a href="http://mwi.westpoint.edu/imagining-the-future-of-landpower/">this review</a> from Frank Hoffman, which is quite long, into something more succinct:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">"Jack Watling's book, "<i>The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century</i>," tackles a critical question: how should armies adapt to the changing face of war? Warfare is becoming more lethal, with new drone technologies and a renewed focus on urban combat. Watling argues that armies are not keeping pace, clinging to outdated structures and simply adding new tech on top.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The book proposes a complete overhaul of force design. Part 1 dives into the future battlefield, analyzing increased transparency due to sensor technology, the limitations of armor in the face of rising lethality, and the enduring challenges of urban warfare.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Part 2 gets practical, outlining a new force structure with four key subsystems: maneuver, fires, assault, and support. This new design emphasizes dispersed formations for better survivability, increased lethality to counter enemy firepower, and the ability to adapt to the unique demands of urban combat. It also integrates drones more seamlessly and calls for lighter, more agile armored vehicles.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Importantly, Watling doesn't advocate abandoning traditional maneuver tactics. He acknowledges the role of armor but emphasizes overcoming its limitations through clever tactics that create ambiguity and deception.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">"The Arms of the Future" is a well-researched book that draws on real-world conflicts and the insights of military experts. While it doesn't delve into unconventional warfare or address the specific needs of special operations forces, it offers a wealth of practical solutions and raises important questions about how armies should be structured for the future battlefield. This book is a must-read for policymakers and military personnel serious about adapting to the ever-changing nature of war. It provides a strong foundation for further discussion and experimentation on how to build a military that can thrive in the coming decades."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">I would add: the book is undeniably important. Its focus on military architecture and logistics shows a deep comprehension for the realities of sustainable warfighting. However, it is written for military strategy professionals: jargon-rich and abstract in tone. It requires sustained attention.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">My concern is that it captures a moment in time, where robotic/autonomous sensor/effector systems and AI synthesis/analysis systems have capabilities impossible to ignore, but not at capability to replace trained soldiers in any current department of warfare. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But progress is exceptionally rapid: what will the situation look like in five or ten years time?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The problem is that re-engineering a major power's military is a generational process, measured in decades. It seems clear that the journey Watling has charted must be followed, but <i>substantial</i> course corrections seem likely within successive five year windows. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Will military bureaucracies be up for the challenge, not just of <i>change</i> but of <i>changing change</i>?</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-6591636901845210852024-03-07T15:23:00.002+00:002024-03-07T17:39:24.522+00:00"I don't like confronting people"<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIG1lI_YbaDkB6gDB_aFfLxCU-dJz74009TBV_uZ3T-jtPmqN5LIEe7HxiYT0R55zacHVW_hBLTiElE4HYafcJN6xqHJdKjByNUuLxVbGva6MxR6gbZIS_Ny9TozXDCuYjreMS1ptPBv2HfUDIXf-9aFe0neoJKBC49NSFuyY2HBSd7TyDvghEPw/s1024/An%20angry%20old%20man.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIG1lI_YbaDkB6gDB_aFfLxCU-dJz74009TBV_uZ3T-jtPmqN5LIEe7HxiYT0R55zacHVW_hBLTiElE4HYafcJN6xqHJdKjByNUuLxVbGva6MxR6gbZIS_Ny9TozXDCuYjreMS1ptPBv2HfUDIXf-9aFe0neoJKBC49NSFuyY2HBSd7TyDvghEPw/s320/An%20angry%20old%20man.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A great deal of my life is explicable based on the premise of the title above. I suppose I am scarcely alone in this psychological style - few people are actively belligerent, doubling down on aggression - but I think I may be more consistent than most.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">To be clear: I <i>do</i> confront people. Often. If it has to be done I <i>will</i> do it. But I don't <i>like</i> it, I'm not <i>good</i> at it. The unrestrained use of emotion, which is what confrontation is, does not fit well with my self-contained nature.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Instead I seek work-arounds. I’m transactional. I try to transform conflict scenarios. I look for novel outcomes that work for everyone.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">One of the reasons I've a fondness for martial arts. In the Chinese and Japanese traditions, conflict decouples from emotion; becomes a <i>technical</i> matter (I can do technical).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So how do I handle that difficult meeting, that stressful phone call? The situation where I need something done... but the other person hasn't done it, or shows little inclination?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Some bosses or project managers would just holler at them. But we already established that I'm not good at yelling at people. I have no idea how to handle the aftermath.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Instead I present myself as helpful and friendly. It's a problem for both of us, isn't it? Do you have an issue I'm not aware of? Can we reframe the difficulty into something we can both work through?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I'm typically imaginative here.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Reluctantly, sorrowfully, if all this has failed, I might finish by wondering if <i>you</i> are really the <i>right person</i> to be assigned these kinds of tasks. Go figure.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's worked so far, and often well: <a href="https://g.co/gemini/share/b41f2077b132">INTP as I am</a>.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-30526088443382262932024-03-05T15:42:00.001+00:002024-03-05T20:10:06.356+00:00QM at the OU: (SM358)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB2mwfro5ar4olO326pLnRmIq1TawllCvenNmEaIrZlPuMt5z34uoHp2ayJFA6hy7pf8PbrgMYcqelrF9BVmFB3m50qC-WrDOP7QDPCjlGntFXYWNM2yR0QTXIRkQH8QD6U4150hNkF93c0Vn0bGQp7Nq9U-tjS7E8bqtMtHJPkgZdmIcymHR9dQ/s1106/Nuclear-coulomb-PE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="1106" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB2mwfro5ar4olO326pLnRmIq1TawllCvenNmEaIrZlPuMt5z34uoHp2ayJFA6hy7pf8PbrgMYcqelrF9BVmFB3m50qC-WrDOP7QDPCjlGntFXYWNM2yR0QTXIRkQH8QD6U4150hNkF93c0Vn0bGQp7Nq9U-tjS7E8bqtMtHJPkgZdmIcymHR9dQ/w359-h204/Nuclear-coulomb-PE.png" width="359" /></a></div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><p>The <a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/search?q=SM358">OU quantum mechanics course</a> I studied back in 2009 was excellent. I spent the first six months (Schrödinger equation, complex vector spaces) as if I were Alice in Wonderland, bemused as to how any of this detailed and comprehensive theory had any connection or purchase on reality.</p></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I spent the final three months realising that I would never know. Because no-one else knew either.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Another QM anecdote. At QM summer school in 2009 (this was a year after the Large Hadron Collider first started up - it was still in testing mode) I asked one of the professors, "Will mastering this course help me understand the physics of the search for the Higgs particle at the LHC?" (it was discovered in 2012).</span></p><span style="font-size: medium;">
He scratched his chin thoughtfully for a moment, then gave me his considered answer.
</span><p><span style="font-size: medium;">"No.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I later learned that the prediction of the Higgs comes out of special symmetry considerations of the Lagrangian in Quantum Field Theory. All of this was advanced postgraduate stuff, utterly invisible from the OU course…
</span></p>
<p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7AuxFZ5qhAjn9jykrGGcV0VrwxDhg5DdGipBapULchOsiBZ6zh0u4A6ibmuGyWNO9Z0iR_IpP1I630EVtdrhnrLzvTq5PaKB6AaguDyOuh_-6USi8R07hbjrshQfG6NBD8_Q1Ku_4Q9OVwX9FPUlC8MszD7QEzdJFHvHJ8WbwjkuUpaaxeMI90A/s948/Lagrangian-Higgs.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="709" data-original-width="948" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7AuxFZ5qhAjn9jykrGGcV0VrwxDhg5DdGipBapULchOsiBZ6zh0u4A6ibmuGyWNO9Z0iR_IpP1I630EVtdrhnrLzvTq5PaKB6AaguDyOuh_-6USi8R07hbjrshQfG6NBD8_Q1Ku_4Q9OVwX9FPUlC8MszD7QEzdJFHvHJ8WbwjkuUpaaxeMI90A/w343-h256/Lagrangian-Higgs.png" width="343" /></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And here's Gemini correcting me: </span></span><a href="https://g.co/gemini/share/983f5af4510e" style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://g.co/gemini/share/983f5af4510e</span></a><span style="font-size: large; white-space-collapse: preserve;">!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><b style="font-size: large; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Fusion and Fission</b></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="318" data-original-width="468" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU-rYkw1txPNG9A-hYAgnUJlU7FUF0kocNvp5BCcK3O0MTaT67q2FDnXMUDCNhfL0M3rwtnNHHEfFsiprFWawhjhyphenhyphenMfgfoV6m0CR69cI5Hw6SLlaVbjkqJvZPnkVaPJ-Rrv6c9CEOsNHUOPfJXVDyHRHn-cObLl8rrAUFqlaSevMuW9wEbeG2voQ/s320/Binding-energy-per-nucleon-B-Z-N-A-as-a-function-of-the-mass-number.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="320" /></b></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><br />Note that 'negative' on the y-axis: this chart is more insightful upside-down</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU-rYkw1txPNG9A-hYAgnUJlU7FUF0kocNvp5BCcK3O0MTaT67q2FDnXMUDCNhfL0M3rwtnNHHEfFsiprFWawhjhyphenhyphenMfgfoV6m0CR69cI5Hw6SLlaVbjkqJvZPnkVaPJ-Rrv6c9CEOsNHUOPfJXVDyHRHn-cObLl8rrAUFqlaSevMuW9wEbeG2voQ/s468/Binding-energy-per-nucleon-B-Z-N-A-as-a-function-of-the-mass-number.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></a></div><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span>And finally: the difference between fusion and fission. Basically the whole universe - all of the matter in it - wants to be<i> iron</i>. Lighter element nuclei want to quantum-tunnel past the coulomb resistance to aggregate into an iron nucleus; heavier elements (all of which are unstable</span></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"> - mostly with half-lives comparable to the age of the universe</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">) want to fission-decay back to iron, again by quantum-tunnelling through the nuclear force potential.</span></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-76196490379030431312024-03-01T19:07:00.001+00:002024-03-02T14:53:21.393+00:00Hallucination<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy0woMkO6I4qfmOBr8nu77rxWpICYTKBiPbz2PpXc52GmkbkoJSBw8iD4x496rgdttKp5q7ArO_kL3btb_jcbRLkarLIgRGZJh8LeFVi6LJmL_XWZMyE2tqwRTXzsLbncQka-CWpYBwpeKr4NxtoKJbP3tmBQCiPN18ulplWPv4ClxAWvSS_U-/s1024/Hallucinations.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy0woMkO6I4qfmOBr8nu77rxWpICYTKBiPbz2PpXc52GmkbkoJSBw8iD4x496rgdttKp5q7ArO_kL3btb_jcbRLkarLIgRGZJh8LeFVi6LJmL_XWZMyE2tqwRTXzsLbncQka-CWpYBwpeKr4NxtoKJbP3tmBQCiPN18ulplWPv4ClxAWvSS_U-/s320/Hallucinations.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In a quaint terraced house in the north of England, Gwen and Charles lived out their retirement years in harmony. As Gwen's hearing began to fade, Charles stood by her, determined to find a solution. Together, they navigated the challenges of Gwen's diminishing senses, finding solace in their unwavering love for each other.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
With the help of cutting-edge technology, Gwen's new hearing aids became her lifeline, allowing her to hear the world with clarity once again. The predictive AI in her devices not only amplified sound but also anticipated Charles' words before they even left his lips, creating a seamless connection between the couple.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
One day Charles was suddenly called away, forced to embark on an urgent journey to visit distant relatives. He trusted that their well-stocked home and Gwen’s conscientious routines would keep her safe and provided for, until he could return. On her part, Gwen's fading vision and lapses of memory were such that, sadly, she failed to notice his absence. Her hearing aids continued to fill the void, predicting Charles' comforting responses to her words, keeping her company in his stead. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
Illness soon crept into Gwen's fragile body but she found solace in the familiar sound of Charles' voice, even though he was actually miles away. Lying in her bed, whispering to her husband, his intimate responses were comforting, a warm presence nurturing her as she finally fell into a deep sleep, one from which there would be no awakening.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
There was an additional function built into Gwen’s prosthesis: a last ditch routine, executed when all else had failed. When Charles rushed back he was engulfed in grief, leavened only by the sense that nevertheless, something of himself had accompanied his wife on her final journey.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Do you think?</span></p>
Adam Carltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11665926865055669746noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-77759718441577843592024-02-29T12:42:00.003+00:002024-02-29T12:42:24.540+00:00Our garden in 2016 with Clare<p> <br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdt3H02THSebsN_MNpszBSAA_clGyBrxXfj-pRteAqzPYU-gKObc-enjm2xqKb_1MHl1S5v1lEIFAYGh5R31jvOxaWic2YG6l-YcJ9nvlVSZHxTS5oY5BvPrsyk3DqjsSSVtZuwwOuY7h74XiI-SFogHeeIM6-lOxJoBcseBmag2JPZuKSkBkOYA/s2836/2016-06-15%2012.16.05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1863" data-original-width="2836" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdt3H02THSebsN_MNpszBSAA_clGyBrxXfj-pRteAqzPYU-gKObc-enjm2xqKb_1MHl1S5v1lEIFAYGh5R31jvOxaWic2YG6l-YcJ9nvlVSZHxTS5oY5BvPrsyk3DqjsSSVtZuwwOuY7h74XiI-SFogHeeIM6-lOxJoBcseBmag2JPZuKSkBkOYA/w347-h241/2016-06-15%2012.16.05.jpg" width="347" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b>It's the anti-Versailles!</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-37763779091185072182024-02-27T17:38:00.004+00:002024-02-27T17:42:35.121+00:00"Can't work with concepts" <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD6Ja4XewGcsookvkOdRRZI8p7ORt0OljG5vec71goFlOzH2KmRSjDsGr3C1eqUfRHW2ObXnArRlJM4323CWE_ekOsRIsdHSQrjBMXdllrDAbZBCbQoSkLsFgMJllvn7gmsIiDOwwA9jXKnXMKCZUZuI31VMveurAgGWjGyZEvHnQAbHL5qkUQCw/s1024/Alien%20spacecraft%20over%20London.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD6Ja4XewGcsookvkOdRRZI8p7ORt0OljG5vec71goFlOzH2KmRSjDsGr3C1eqUfRHW2ObXnArRlJM4323CWE_ekOsRIsdHSQrjBMXdllrDAbZBCbQoSkLsFgMJllvn7gmsIiDOwwA9jXKnXMKCZUZuI31VMveurAgGWjGyZEvHnQAbHL5qkUQCw/s320/Alien%20spacecraft%20over%20London.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>From OpenArt</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">“<b>Speculative Encounters with Advanced Extraterrestrial Intelligence: A Framework for Rigorous Analysis</b>”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Except that it wasn't.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In an attempt to avoid the well-known <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollyanna">Pollyanna</a>-lobotomization of mainstream LLMs, I asked Gemini to adopt the persona of a <i>Professor of Evolutionary Ecology</i> (with a particular interest in <i>Xenobiology</i>). I said this professor was known for <i>lack of sentiment</i> and a <i>strong aversion to wishful thinking</i>. He specialised in <i>clear assumptions</i> and <i>rigorous, logical deductio</i>n.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Gemini agreed to be that person.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I then quizzed my ‘professor’ about technological aliens: discuss their motivations; describe their options for interstellar travel (technology vs. self-modification); indicate their likely response to humanity on arrival in our solar system.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Reader, I was hoping for the creative application of evolutionary theory to these scenarios (expansionist top predator goes forth...). I wanted informed scenarios built on plausible assumptions and held together by rigorous logic.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I was hoping to learn something. Instead I got the dialogue summarised below at the end. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Try to stay awake!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For me this says something important about what LLMs actually do. They may well build sophisticated conceptual hierarchies, abstracting and generalising over their vast corpus of training material. But in their current architecture, they are not <i>operating</i> at that conceptual level. It's still rote learning.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's ‘<i>concrete to abstract to concrete</i>’, not ‘<i>concrete to abstract to abstract to concrete</i>’ - as human experts do. It's like trying to learn maths or physics by reading the textbooks but never doing any of the questions.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I noticed the same with maths prompts: the LLMs have the data, have synthesised abstract concepts, but do not reason coherently at that abstract level. So they make rookie errors all the time.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">That's why they're not smarter than us yet, not superhuman in extended disciplines and wider culture. Less reading and more <i>doing</i>, please!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>This is how Gemini summarised our interaction: Pollyanna is never far away.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>## Summary of our Discussion: Encountering Advanced Extraterrestrial Intelligence</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">While encountering advanced extraterrestrial life remains hypothetical, exploring potential scenarios fosters critical analysis. We discussed the limitations of categorizing ET encounters as "biological" or "technological," acknowledging the vast unknown and the need for evidence-based discourse.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Motivations for interstellar travel were explored, ranging from resource acquisition to exploration, while acknowledging the difficulty of applying Earth-centric evolutionary concepts to understand alien motivations. We then examined sending probes and living organisms, recognizing the benefits and drawbacks of each approach.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Shifting the focus to potential collaboration, we acknowledged the limitations of attributing "inherent benevolence" to ET behavior. Instead, we explored scenarios where collaboration might be strategically advantageous, primarily when resources are complex, fragile, or costly to acquire unilaterally. However, the discussion emphasized the inherent fragility and uncertainty of such cooperation due to potential shifts in power dynamics, unforeseen circumstances, and internal conflicts.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In conclusion, while collaboration might hold some potential, it's crucial to maintain a critical and balanced perspective, acknowledging the vast unknown and focusing on logical deduction rather than wishful thinking.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">**Recommendations:**</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1. **Continued scientific exploration** is essential.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2. **Critical and evidence-based approaches** are necessary.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3. **Acknowledge the limitations of our understanding** to foster honest discussion.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">4. **Hypothetical scenarios** can be valuable thought exercises.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-48795174443553863502024-02-22T15:24:00.002+00:002024-02-22T17:24:58.789+00:00LLMs have battered my blogging!<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In the old days, I would have an idea, develop it, and write it up as a post here. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Now: I have an idea, I type it into <a href="https://gemini.google.com/">Gemini</a> which writes the blog post... and I <i>don't</i> post it here.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><i>What value do <b>I</b> add when everyone has access to an LLM in 'God-mode'?</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">In future, what you'll get here will be either some very <i>idiosyncratic</i> posts indeed - thoughts not encompassed by the bland LLM summation of the collective wisdom of the world-wide web - or something very <i>personal</i> indeed, probably involving cats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Here we go.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">1. I am being ambushed as I get up by puss-puss. She demands I scratch her head and also rub deep inside her ears. How disgusting is that?! I have to wash my hands before I go downstairs!</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_3lAFd8nIDBe6UacxjCSpzl58BIGSHhIKLFH_tXSqwZL-s8ssQB8n8dxa17uG98gVmu6EEX_n45BjZLFDSMu7-C86u4EpHo2RnoS0_h1eMcP4Sapsv-tQI69qcmTeD7eKVtZisCqhBo2-V7rCSO-KWqBnJRrYo0seOwG3Q50jS1uXJ1ZE6nbHQQ/s512/puss-puss-in-heated-basket.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="512" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_3lAFd8nIDBe6UacxjCSpzl58BIGSHhIKLFH_tXSqwZL-s8ssQB8n8dxa17uG98gVmu6EEX_n45BjZLFDSMu7-C86u4EpHo2RnoS0_h1eMcP4Sapsv-tQI69qcmTeD7eKVtZisCqhBo2-V7rCSO-KWqBnJRrYo0seOwG3Q50jS1uXJ1ZE6nbHQQ/s320/puss-puss-in-heated-basket.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">2. A slightly edited blog post I asked Gemini to write for me on <i>this</i> topic: </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">"<i>Write a blog post of less than 650 words analysing the Vatican's dilemma with scientific research such as physics, evolutionary biology and in particular research into the Historical Jesus.</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><i>Make the point that there appear to be limits in modifying or reinterpreting Biblical scripture and theology when faced with the challenge of non-sacralised content from non-Catholic sources. How are these limits determined and are there absolute barriers?</i>"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Gemini's blog post</span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">"The Vatican and the Tightrope Walk: Navigating Science and Scripture</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Vatican, as the center of the Catholic Church, faces a unique challenge: reconciling the ever-evolving world of scientific discovery with the timeless truths enshrined in its scriptures and theology. This tightrope walk is particularly evident in fields like physics, evolutionary biology, and even historical research on the figure of Jesus.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Church's position on science has undergone a gradual shift throughout history. While initial reactions to revolutionary discoveries were often cautious or even hostile, the modern Church acknowledges the validity of scientific progress. Pope John Paul II, for example, famously declared that "faith and reason are like two wings on which the human spirit rises to the contemplation of truth."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, when scientific findings seem to contradict scripture, the Church faces a dilemma. Take, for example, evolution. While accepting the reality of biological change, the Church insists on its compatibility with the doctrine of creation. This necessitates an intricate interpretation of Genesis, often drawing on <i>allegorical</i> readings or theological frameworks to bridge the gap.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Similarly, historical research on the life and teachings of Jesus can challenge established narratives. The discovery of non-canonical gospels, for instance, raises questions about the "true" Jesus, potentially contradicting the Gospels accepted by the Church. Reconciling these findings requires careful analysis, distinguishing between historical fact and theological interpretation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The limits of modifying or reinterpreting scripture and theology are determined by a complex interplay of factors. Firstly, the core doctrines of the Church, like the divinity of Christ or the Trinity, are considered <i>immutable</i>. Secondly, the historical and literary context of scripture plays a crucial role in interpreting its meaning. Finally, the interpretations of Church authorities and theologians throughout history contribute to a cumulative understanding of faith.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">However, absolute barriers are difficult to define. Science constantly evolves, and new discoveries can necessitate re-evaluations of established interpretations. Additionally, theological understanding itself is a dynamic process, with ongoing dialogue between scholars and believers. This leaves room for adaptation, but within certain boundaries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The Vatican's approach is often characterized as cautious and deliberate. It seeks to harmonize scientific findings with scripture, finding common ground wherever possible. When contradictions seem insurmountable, it emphasizes the distinct realms of faith and reason, asserting that they ultimately lead to the same truth from different perspectives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">This balancing act is not without its critics. Some argue that the Church is too rigid, clinging to outdated interpretations in the face of scientific evidence. Others believe it compromises its core values by bending theology to accommodate secular knowledge. Ultimately, the Vatican's position reflects its unique role as a steward of both faith and reason. It strives to remain faithful to its tradition while engaging with the ever-changing world." </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><b>Comment</b>: it's a bit bland and wordy, and bends over backward not to offend anyone but there's a core of interest. As they say: <i>I didn't have time to make it shorter</i>.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-90728433953236407372024-01-26T10:35:00.000+00:002024-01-26T10:35:09.830+00:00Blinded by Deception: Navigating the Fog of GPS Warfare<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTfMYK3jfJI6AG7YfKVyNNoP0_BXP05_BH0r3jMdwpIj54nJjtkNr4dswb6IiV8fo70LXmrHwXpIGX4bxThE3KoT6NhvQzv_Hn1RyuRpz7gTjUuway_1wffaWzl3vCSYeMtHmziOIampR8KRQtX_4pjRayUT-DKEKR0mXGS2lOx8rrB8ArLooNJw/s320/UAV.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="320" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTfMYK3jfJI6AG7YfKVyNNoP0_BXP05_BH0r3jMdwpIj54nJjtkNr4dswb6IiV8fo70LXmrHwXpIGX4bxThE3KoT6NhvQzv_Hn1RyuRpz7gTjUuway_1wffaWzl3vCSYeMtHmziOIampR8KRQtX_4pjRayUT-DKEKR0mXGS2lOx8rrB8ArLooNJw/s1600/UAV.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Imagine piloting a high-tech drone, only to have its navigation system hijacked by an invisible enemy. This isn't science fiction; it's the chilling reality of GPS spoofing and denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, posing a critical threat to modern militaries reliant on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Not yet do we see drone-on-drone aerial dogfights. Today's battlefields are dominated by silent UAVs, eyes in the sky gathering intel and delivering precision strikes. But their effectiveness hinges on accurate navigation, often solely provided by GPS. Just like your phone, these drones rely on satellite signals for positioning, making them vulnerable to manipulation.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Enter the nefarious world of spoofing. Malicious actors can mimic GPS signals, broadcasting false data that throws the UAV's navigation system off course. Imagine your drone being tricked into thinking it's miles away, potentially flying into enemy territory or missing its target by a devastating margin.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">DoS attacks take a different approach, overwhelming GPS satellites with jamming signals, essentially blinding the drones to their true location. This can render an entire fleet of UAVs useless, crippling reconnaissance and attack capabilities.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, how are militaries fighting back in this fog of GPS warfare? Here's a glimpse into their arsenal:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">1. Diversifying the Drone's Senses: Moving beyond GPS, militaries are equipping UAVs with a multi-sensory navigation suite. Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) use internal sensors to track movement, while terrain-matching algorithms compare real-time imagery to onboard maps. Celestial navigation, an age-old technique, utilizes the stars as celestial beacons. Each method has its limitations, but their combined data paints a more accurate picture, making it harder to fool the drone.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">2. Redundancy and Fault Tolerance: Just like having a spare tire, militaries are equipping drones with multiple GPS receivers and INUs. If one is spoofed or jammed, the others can still provide some level of navigation, preventing complete blackout. Ground-based radio systems can provide location abilities at strong signal strengths, like the British <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gee_(navigation)">Gee</a> navigation system for bombers in WW2.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">3. Advanced Spoofing Detection: Gone are the days of simply trusting the GPS signal. Militaries are developing sophisticated algorithms that can sniff out fake signals by analyzing signal strength, satellite geometry, and even subtle inconsistencies in the data.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">4. Cooperative Navigation: Imagine drones sharing navigational data like a flock of birds. This is the essence of cooperative navigation, where UAVs use information from each other to cross-check their positions and identify anomalies. This not only bolsters individual drones but also creates a resilient network that's harder to disrupt.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The battle for GPS supremacy is far from over. As technology advances, so too will the sophistication of spoofing and jamming techniques. But by diversifying their navigation toolbox, embracing redundancy, and developing advanced detection and cooperation strategies, militaries are taking crucial steps to ensure their UAVs remain sharp-sighted even in the fog of GPS warfare.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>This was written by Bard from lengthy prompts, following reports of the failure of American precision munitions on the Ukraine-Russian front due to Russian GPS jamming/spoofing. I also asked Bard to write this in the style of "Foreign Affairs" or "The Economist" - for a slightly less breathless piece - but the result was too boring to share with you.</i></span></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-35669918591738870772024-01-24T10:51:00.001+00:002024-01-24T10:51:55.310+00:00A Catholic in 21st Century Paris<p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHtK90PUvFIl55Rt62sglkI_nBK_WyIkaPn2QS5jDLVzjumltfbqb8jpuD_lxTqthOnK6re6kzGBYkRoAH4T4RR-mBzwIwxyqia_tSAQtJZmWrJzRd9Kz-1lJwJUXiTufV44OyCuHtPyt2kAUBkWWu3aj_7tdzmbWa3skJvmNfq3naP95II2af/s320/Claude1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="320" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHtK90PUvFIl55Rt62sglkI_nBK_WyIkaPn2QS5jDLVzjumltfbqb8jpuD_lxTqthOnK6re6kzGBYkRoAH4T4RR-mBzwIwxyqia_tSAQtJZmWrJzRd9Kz-1lJwJUXiTufV44OyCuHtPyt2kAUBkWWu3aj_7tdzmbWa3skJvmNfq3naP95II2af/s1600/Claude1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I encountered Claude in a cafe on the Rue Mouffetard. He was sitting at a table in a back corner, a distinguished man in his seventies clad in black leather jacket and faded jeans. His beard was white, as was his longish hair; here was a man lined with the turbulence of Parisian life over the decades.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But I was specifically taken by the two newspapers resting on the table in front of him: <i>L'Humanité</i> and <i>La Croix</i>. He was reading neither, content to lazily smoke, gazing peaceably across the room. A blue cigarette packet marked with a swirling dancing silhouette lay crumbled next to his mug of coffee.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The paper of the Parti Communiste Français lying next to the daily newspaper of the Catholic Church? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">What was that about? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It turned out that Claude was now retired, living alone in an apartment on the Avenue Émile-Zola in the 15th. He came here most days, he said, to think and to reconcile the many tumbling ideas in his head.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“I finally left the Party after the collapse,” he said, “in 1991. It was obvious that the dream was going nowhere. I keep in touch, of course,” and here he waved towards the PCF newspaper, ”though these days that’s just for nostalgics.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“And La Croix?” I said gently, sipping at my own espresso.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">He looked just a little embarrassed. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“It’s not what you think," he said, (what did he think I thought?). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“I'm not one of the sheep who replaces one failed utopia with another, who has come to believe that there's some power up in the sky who will save us. No, nothing like that at all.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“But you <i>are</i> a Catholic?” I said.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Yes, for some years now.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Why, if I may ask?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“It’s complicated. I could give you simple answers. To start with, at some basic psychological level I rather like the Mass.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I smiled at him over my coffee cup.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Yes, you scoff, but it’s beautiful,” he said, “Always the same, always different. A hundred variations as the years roll by. The Mass is communal and reassuring; it feels good to participate.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Of course we all know that the Catholic Mass is mostly dedicated to making obeisance to a divine Jesus and asking for His Mercy,” I said.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“But how else is a global community of billions of people going to hold together for two millennia, without acknowledging the leadership of a Supreme Being. There has to be an indisputable leadership, a central theme: the alternative is everything crumbles away into schism. Surely we've all had enough experience of that?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“So take yourself,” I said, “Do you believe in the literal existence of a Supreme Being? Jesus Christ, God, the Holy Spirit, the Holy Trinity?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">He smiled at me then.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“You’re young, you believe that things exist in such an absolute way. Do you believe in justice and love, oppression and resistance?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Of course,” I said easily.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Point them out to me, show me where they live. What colour are they, how much do they weigh?“ </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">He paused invitingly.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Perhaps they all live in heaven?” he asked.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Touché.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“I get it,” I said, “As a Marxist, or former Marxist, you know that all those ‘<i>things</i>’ you mentioned are really <i>social relationships</i>, the social-expression of our underlying humanity. Our words <i>reify</i>, invent <i>pretend-things</i> out of the patterns of human desires, human lives.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Claude simply looked at me with an enigmatic smile.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“OK,” I said, “Moving on, I can see where you’re coming from on the belief system, but why are you a Catholic? That was surely not necessary.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“But perhaps it was,” he said, “The Marxist utopia has departed. We are to be left without hope in the face of global capitalism?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“So you’re anti-globalism.” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It wasn’t a question: of course he would be.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Not in principle. I’m against all those ideologies which make almost everyone merely instruments of ‘economic forces’, forces which always benefit a pretty invisible elite. They really only care about themselves, you know. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Whether it’s wokeness, or no-borders globalism, or classic economic liberalism, the narratives are always tendential. Honeyed words, but underneath it’s always: ‘keep the masses atomised - and if that fails, diverted - so they don’t rock the boat’.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The old class warrior took a deep drag of his cigarette and leaned back, his eyes closing; a haze of blue smoke surrounded him.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“In your Communist days,” I said, “you thought the masses would throw off their bourgeois ideological blinkers and embrace collective liberation through revolution. That’s gone away for you absolutely?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“It took me a long time to see that Lenin and the Bolsheviks’ towering achievement was to overthrow a tottering feudal regime which was doomed anyway. Their Marxist ideology was operationally beside the point. Then they tried a direct road to communism in a situation of absolute scarcity. Marx had pointed out decades before that this was impossible, that it would just lead to a police state. A century later the left still has no answer as to what could replace the dynamism, the sheer coordination of global capitalism.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I nodded: sadly, there was no arguing with that.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“So in the current state of the world,” he continued, “ I have become convinced there is no answer but to defend ourselves with what we have to hand, perhaps for centuries to come.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I drained my cup, slightly incredulous at such defeatism. I worked daily for the triumph of socialism.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“You can't think the Catholic Church is the new Communist Party.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Of course not. It’s a community, open to all, where people reaffirm the basic truths of what it is to be human and are valued as such. Ends not means. It is a bulwark, a citadel, a place of refuge where human values can be affirmed and celebrated.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“The Catholic Church is one of the most reactionary organisations on the planet,” I pointed out.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“So say its secular critics. I suppose they would say that, as it impedes so many of their projects.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I raised my eyebrows but he quickly continued.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Most Catholics don’t subscribe to the full authoritarian orthodoxy. It’s a cliché that the Church is broad. There are many points of view and many contradictions. For every Biblical fundamentalist there are those who understand the historical and symbolic nature of the texts, who see the many inconsistencies in what has always been a creaking theology.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Excuse me,” I said, “This is a church which is profoundly unhappy with science and progress, which is frightened to discuss the historical Jesus and the true nature of his teaching for fear of alienating the flock, which sacralises the most unlikely stories in its sacred books. Doesn’t that make you a complete hypocrite?”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“It makes me a member of a squabbling family, but one that is rooted in the deep history of human relationships, aspirations and solidarity.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">He stopped for a moment, as if dredging his memory.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Ah, ‘<i>There are many rooms in my Father's house</i>’,” he said, crinkling his lips.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It was time to go.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Claude, it’s been a pleasure talking to you. And I hope all of this deep thinking grants you peace,” I said.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I left some euros on the table and walked away. As I entered the street I looked back through the window. There was Claude, still sitting there, a broad smile on his face, his fist raised in clenched salute.</span></p>
Adam Carltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11665926865055669746noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-41957948783230259832024-01-22T17:35:00.000+00:002024-01-22T17:35:06.535+00:00Specification for an AI phone in 2030<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm0z5Cz0KLWbsxYexOrJvL07cikKtFzcgpLmDwJaPadzj6Q-HkSl2IIu0Kn2SHL4Ji6g5siRsUenUxlUHc3UdH2snphyphenhyphenrSGFw10CDFi-8KNZ8HZ1_48rUkLIUKYNK7CkAXxyzzJdqSSh5BzaM04iAIIINeNSclGkvk_Y8vr7P1NEtbUMP51xllKA/s640/openart-AI-companion.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm0z5Cz0KLWbsxYexOrJvL07cikKtFzcgpLmDwJaPadzj6Q-HkSl2IIu0Kn2SHL4Ji6g5siRsUenUxlUHc3UdH2snphyphenhyphenrSGFw10CDFi-8KNZ8HZ1_48rUkLIUKYNK7CkAXxyzzJdqSSh5BzaM04iAIIINeNSclGkvk_Y8vr7P1NEtbUMP51xllKA/s320/openart-AI-companion.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br />
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the “<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sentenced-War-J-N-Chaney-ebook/dp/B08VHNNG5W/">Sentenced to War</a>” military-SF series by Chaney and Brazee, soldiers have a “Battle Buddy” surgically emplaced and wired into their brains on a ‘crystal substrate’. The AI can tap into a soldier's senses (vision, hearing, etc) and process the information independently.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The AI system is knowledge-rich, as if it has graduated from the best military school. It communicates conversationally (through an internal voice) with the soldier and can overlay information on request into the soldier's visual field via stimulation of the visual cortex.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It seems the ideal AI companion - except when the hero begins to suspect that the Battle Buddies come with a covert surveillance backchannel into Military Intelligence.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">We can reverse-engineer three major specification-areas from this hypothetical system for the next generation of AI phones.</span></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">1. <b>Situational Awareness</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The phone needs to know what's going on. Absent the ability to directly tap into the user's senses, this suggests the user will need to wear cameras and microphones which default to always-on. This might be considered spooky by some. Also how are these devices mounted? A headband; glasses? Or does the phone tap into some local part of a future global audio-visual surveillance network currently waiting to be constructed?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">2. <b>Interaction modes</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Many people seem unwilling to talk aloud to their devices, fearing this can be inappropriate, indiscreet and intrusive. Typing into a screen is low bandwidth and cumbersome.
What's a good solution, both for sending to the AI and getting a response (information which might include visual - augmented reality - and audio as well as text)?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">3. <b>Where is the real value-added?</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Current phones already support countless useful functions, often user-specific. Is the AI phone just more of the same, perhaps a bit streamlined, or does it transition from being a tool-set to becoming an entity with presence and agency: a valet, a concierge, a chaperone, a security guard, or a friend? An automated friend which knows your every intimate secret seems a bit of a security risk?</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Summing up, I think the <i>mature</i> AI phone is <i>not</i> an incremental improvement over current phones, although it will certainly incorporate their current capabilities. It will be a system comprising sensors and effectors, multimedia communication with the user and affective and emotional agency as well as abstract cognitive competence; more friend than information and entertainment resource.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I would guess we'll see many trial systems until some design stabilises around 2030.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Note</b>: I asked Google’s Bard to improve this vision using its intelligence. Its rather lengthy series of drafts mostly told me how good this little essay was, and suggested the use of Musk-style <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink">neuralink</a> implants as an additional feature. Hmm…</span></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-66311205720369395342024-01-19T16:00:00.000+00:002024-01-19T16:00:01.654+00:00Lust and Pain in the Palace of Lies<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigAjnJFf-z0Z8Ej0uSWQPwK2JuzDLxtjZwtRETUofCPeH3O1-dMNgTbJ3XBICqXzPuVwaORD35NSnM__J_W7SmV9s2CddNb8Nd6GWW9Ah9Pw60HmC6w87br35Oh9KDTjcu2AuAupxSqgtCAh1-WexgLpqF9uWb55qRtj_74nN3E4co-KRPr9f2/s640/Lust-and-Pain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigAjnJFf-z0Z8Ej0uSWQPwK2JuzDLxtjZwtRETUofCPeH3O1-dMNgTbJ3XBICqXzPuVwaORD35NSnM__J_W7SmV9s2CddNb8Nd6GWW9Ah9Pw60HmC6w87br35Oh9KDTjcu2AuAupxSqgtCAh1-WexgLpqF9uWb55qRtj_74nN3E4co-KRPr9f2/s320/Lust-and-Pain.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I wrote this 2,000 word short story as a dark satire on mysterious government agencies whose optimal recruits are those with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissociative_identity_disorder">Dissociative Identity Disorder</a>. Think unempathic, callous, impervious to pain, low arousal - yet also competent, smart and on-mission.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">We follow the final (virtual reality) assessment of such a trainee. I was trying for psychological horror, penetrating such a state of mind and a twist. I was also very interested to see whether the current batch of LLM AIs could add some value to my draft.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here was the prompt: <i>Please edit and improve the short story I will present in the next post. Keep the length about the same but improve the literary quality. Also accentuate, if possible, the haunting psychological dissociation, depersonalization and derealisation experienced by the protagonist</i>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Bard flatly refused to consider it. Its neo-Victorian guardrails simply blew a fuse - I suspect the title was enough. Booksie’s Bob was made of sterner stuff and produced a version which was 25% shorter, mostly by bowdlerising the material and failing to grasp the centrality and ambiguity of the protagonist’s psychological reality and the VR setting. Some of the detailed descriptive material was valuable, however, so I revised and incorporated that into the final version <a href="https://www.booksie.com/714707-lust-and-pain-in-the-palace-of-lies">here</a> (two or three paragraphs, including the first and last).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">My conclusion. The current public AIs are ring-fenced against adult material, whether sexually somewhat-explicit or featuring scenes of torture or horror, even if implicit. They do not comprehend the overall plot, particularly if it’s sophisticated, ambiguous or setting up a twist. However, like a super-thesaurus, the AI-edited version <i>is</i> currently useful for feedback and detail. Might work better for children’s stories if they were bland and uplifting (!).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But things will only get better.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">My domestic critic, who read both versions, said that she didn’t like my story: “Why do you never write about nice people doing nice things?” she said. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Next time</i>, I told her.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's a <a href="https://www.booksie.com/714707-lust-and-pain-in-the-palace-of-lies">link</a> to the story.</span></p>
Adam Carltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11665926865055669746noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-9770034480220241372024-01-16T10:19:00.010+00:002024-01-16T10:22:19.903+00:00March in French<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM3IC1mWJNQh07dtLTp3K8i9m7iznAcppphMtDXecMZYXTHU99O4UJIuXPi6EAtYYxIO73q6-zALSlag9yy1OXV0O9V12DZFv9zq0ZtEdinohustfsP81b9vAlCP2ggkxs9OOxOVyCzX-ej8mV1_00VHyGFpdZCuS7U0535CanRwjGt03Z1RmBzA/s640/March%20in%20Paris.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM3IC1mWJNQh07dtLTp3K8i9m7iznAcppphMtDXecMZYXTHU99O4UJIuXPi6EAtYYxIO73q6-zALSlag9yy1OXV0O9V12DZFv9zq0ZtEdinohustfsP81b9vAlCP2ggkxs9OOxOVyCzX-ej8mV1_00VHyGFpdZCuS7U0535CanRwjGt03Z1RmBzA/s320/March%20in%20Paris.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">From OpenArt</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Apparently the month-name '<i>March</i>' is highly googled when French people write in English.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">'<i>March</i>', in French, is pronounced as '<i>Marsh</i>'. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But when the French hear it in English they hear '<i>Mar<b>t</b>-sh</i>' and conclude that '<i>March</i>' has a '<i>t</i>' in it. But that looks wrong: so off to Google...</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-84784285428937500772024-01-15T08:30:00.036+00:002024-01-15T08:30:00.143+00:00Four questions I asked Bard recently <p><span style="font-size: medium;">[<i>Bard's answers have been shortened for readability</i>].</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Q1.</b> <b>Tariq Ali said once that Ernest Mandel confided to him, very close to death, that he thought that the revolution he had fought for his entire life would now not become a reality for perhaps hundreds of years. He said that this view should not be shared with the comrades of the Fourth International because it would only demoralise them. Do you have the exact quote?</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I'm unable to locate the exact quote from Tariq Ali about Ernest Mandel's pessimistic view of a future revolution. While it's possible such a conversation occurred, without a specific source or context, it's difficult to verify its authenticity.</span></p><span style="font-size: medium;">
However, there are some details to consider:
</span><p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Mandel's optimism: Ernest Mandel was known for his optimistic and unwavering belief in the inevitability of socialist revolution. This is reflected throughout his writings and interviews. A complete reversal of such a deeply held conviction towards the end of his life seems somewhat contradictory.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Ali's perspective: Tariq Ali has been a vocal critic of certain Trotskyist tendencies, including Mandel's Fourth International. While he respected Mandel personally, there might be an element of bias, intentional or unintentional, in his recollection of a private conversation.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Lack of supporting evidence: Despite extensive research, there appears to be no other mention of this conversation or Mandel's supposed pessimism in biographies, articles, or interviews related to either figure.</span></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">[Follow-up question]: Tariq Ali may have deleted the recollection and the quote. Perhaps it's still in an Internet Archive formed soon after Mandel's death (which was when?).</span></b></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">You're right, it's possible that Tariq Ali may have removed the recollection or quote about Ernest Mandel's pessimism. It's also a good suggestion to check internet archives from around the time of Mandel's death, which was on July 23, 1995. …</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Comment: I distinctly recall reading this around the time of Mandel's death. It would not surprise me if Tariq came under great pressure to delete the observation based on Mandel's clear wishes. I believe Mandel drew his final bleak conclusion from the utter collapse of the Soviet bloc and its total reversion to capitalism.</b></span></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></b></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Q2. Can the Pauli Exclusion Principle be derived from QFT?</span></b></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Yes, the Pauli Exclusion Principle can be derived from Quantum Field Theory (QFT), although it's not a straightforward or simple derivation. QFT offers a deeper understanding of why this fundamental principle holds true for fermions (particles with half-integer spin).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's a simplified explanation:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Particles in QFT: In QFT, particles are not localized objects but excitations of underlying fields. Each type of particle corresponds to a specific type of field. For example, the electron field describes the presence or absence of electrons at different points in space and time.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Creation and annihilation operators: To manipulate these fields, QFT uses creation and annihilation operators. Creation operators add a particle to the field at a specific location, while annihilation operators remove one.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">* Anticommutation relations: For fermionic fields, creation and annihilation operators obey anticommutation relations. These relations essentially say that you cannot have two identical fermions in the same quantum state. Trying to add a second fermion to an already occupied state results in zero, meaning the state no longer exists.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">This anticommutation behavior is a consequence of the deeper mathematical and statistical properties of fermionic fields, which originate from the connection between spin and statistics, known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spin%E2%80%93statistics_theorem">spin-statistics theorem</a>.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Comment: insofar as I understand this, I think it's accurate.</span></b></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Q3. In what book does an author from the Jesus Seminar discuss the formation of the Resurrection narrative from the Jewish ritual of the act of atonement and its two lambs/(goats).</span></b></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, your description doesn't pinpoint a single book from a Jesus Seminar author. Several possibilities exist, as the Seminar involved multiple scholars researching diverse themes. Here are some potential leads:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">1. <i>The Resurrection of Jesus: A Sourcebook</i> (Jesus Seminar Guides Vol 4) by Robert W. Funk: This book features essays by various Seminar members, including one by Arthur Dewey on the Gospel of Peter, which contains a resurrection narrative with unique parallels to Jewish sacrificial rituals.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">2. <i>The Historical Jesus: Five Views That Matter</i> by John Dominic Crossan: Crossan, a prominent Jesus Seminar member, explored Jewish roots of early Christianity in several works.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">3. <i>Beyond Jesus: The Search for the Real Rabbi</i> by Marcus Borg: Borg, another key figure in the Jesus Seminar, emphasized Jesus' Jewish context and explored how early Christian communities adapted and reinterpreted existing traditions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">4. <i>Who Killed Jesus? The Resurrection of Myth and Reason</i> by Robert M. Price: While not directly affiliated with the Jesus Seminar, Price is a prominent critic of traditional interpretations of the resurrection and delves into its possible cultural and mythological roots.</span></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Comment: In fact the right answer is "<i>The Birth of Christianity: Discovering What Happened in the Years Immediately After the Execution of Jesus</i>" by John Dominic Crossan. And it's the <i>Day</i> of Atonement, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur">Yom Kippur</a>.</span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpqVtXSSFtk0_FYZmJwgQzt00bZum6zbjrVPFK1R2DEbu_7YQN16aVtHPnh4yD1NOnyD5-W2n4DVxld1sSQAhRh9GzqRMLcl3ooMkrBPJlluIFBSwknHihZUXP1TN6AAJhcQjjsELYsdoRtsPGjaHza-aa6Mmi-CwnmM39gGWHHJfUiQ8UtMmveg/s450/The%20Birth%20of%20Christianity.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="297" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpqVtXSSFtk0_FYZmJwgQzt00bZum6zbjrVPFK1R2DEbu_7YQN16aVtHPnh4yD1NOnyD5-W2n4DVxld1sSQAhRh9GzqRMLcl3ooMkrBPJlluIFBSwknHihZUXP1TN6AAJhcQjjsELYsdoRtsPGjaHza-aa6Mmi-CwnmM39gGWHHJfUiQ8UtMmveg/s320/The%20Birth%20of%20Christianity.jpg" width="211" /></a></span></b></div><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Q4. Reacher Hope and Despair book?</span></b></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The book you're referring to is most likely "<i>Nothing to Lose</i>" by Lee Child, the 12th novel in the Jack Reacher series. It features two towns with contrasting names: Hope and Despair.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Plot Summary:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Reacher is on a cross-country trek when he stumbles upon these two towns in Colorado. Hope is a small, friendly community, while Despair is a desolate, one-man town controlled by a fanatical preacher.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Reacher's curiosity is piqued by the stark contrast between the two towns, and he soon finds himself uncovering dark secrets lurking beneath the surface of Despair. The town is dominated by a powerful recycling plant that seems to be more than what it meets the eye.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As Reacher digs deeper, he becomes entangled in a web of corruption, violence, and conspiracy. He must use his formidable skills and unwavering sense of justice to protect the innocent and expose the truth about Despair.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8k_YTnKwtni5dHkidcHqYTeT-B1V5q09yrVFoXUOmZNI8qJIkmp6_qGkcnOk4zgIy0FFPmqpXLDKQAjJo3gLWoP9gi6WyVuwaOL-FmlD5WZ8kq1LTY4ANWa8vvHZUg1qSRxwV-9cCe6p_h8BcFE1fmrecxz6FE3fhvVNQ496deL1TVj924PHTDw/s500/Nothing%20to%20lose.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8k_YTnKwtni5dHkidcHqYTeT-B1V5q09yrVFoXUOmZNI8qJIkmp6_qGkcnOk4zgIy0FFPmqpXLDKQAjJo3gLWoP9gi6WyVuwaOL-FmlD5WZ8kq1LTY4ANWa8vvHZUg1qSRxwV-9cCe6p_h8BcFE1fmrecxz6FE3fhvVNQ496deL1TVj924PHTDw/s320/Nothing%20to%20lose.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Comment: spot on.</span></b></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-91586713078637959762024-01-14T09:57:00.008+00:002024-03-08T13:54:44.407+00:00Clare at the Château de Loches (Loire valley)<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrKCYPz9J-8Vzyba9dNPIwbzMK59D2rVaLQ8DJTNCQjMvpjq3NCpSRTBfXplP1rc_8jj1wcyp9sy0valXap_Y1k-k5pB9SC7VrbKUnULS0miKZFRtNJUV-PJOBTOp6Bzz8Jn603C3EuY_L38HQNBicwC4G9Zi7EPnlKbBi3d8xE3BE-pPIiA0xw/s320/Clare%20in%20Garden%20colour%205.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="320" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrKCYPz9J-8Vzyba9dNPIwbzMK59D2rVaLQ8DJTNCQjMvpjq3NCpSRTBfXplP1rc_8jj1wcyp9sy0valXap_Y1k-k5pB9SC7VrbKUnULS0miKZFRtNJUV-PJOBTOp6Bzz8Jn603C3EuY_L38HQNBicwC4G9Zi7EPnlKbBi3d8xE3BE-pPIiA0xw/s1600/Clare%20in%20Garden%20colour%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><b style="font-size: small;">Clare pictured in June 2009</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiai2NFmuEWubh8yBI7vUlhWtNvykQRt40Ke4Rix327HCvRcATwIzH1ldEvCMWxG9hsihxL0dv4dNzK5yFlM0bVHNmqJ4TWEFR4GpKUrzAtw4pdqkQ8VvegB7meljBOsubbiM-mMGOw_f7BbnHTQ_oppRN3u169BwUEtNnYOdo0aKy-QdrwEmwcbg/s1073/Loches--Chateau.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1073" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiai2NFmuEWubh8yBI7vUlhWtNvykQRt40Ke4Rix327HCvRcATwIzH1ldEvCMWxG9hsihxL0dv4dNzK5yFlM0bVHNmqJ4TWEFR4GpKUrzAtw4pdqkQ8VvegB7meljBOsubbiM-mMGOw_f7BbnHTQ_oppRN3u169BwUEtNnYOdo0aKy-QdrwEmwcbg/s320/Loches--Chateau.jpg" width="320" /></b></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><br />The Château de Loches, Loire valley (photo Wikipedia)</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-43304657369119978252024-01-13T15:28:00.002+00:002024-01-13T15:28:20.929+00:00The Priddy Mineries in Winter<p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEEYQlwsRZzsY8iAw1HSsqMYC5YUZ-We8EjOxTfTBxEDVNtonsVoprAgHyYytjG_8iBHcUI6QypEzgepwKJwlWT3MHYQQi2smvzqe7f5EdOKnhyphenhyphenPeEr_k6e70BF2OnTwKZezPEWCtkzFTojxRQiy-COg8lWA9UdJUNGg4cAFXHzOtMCZpNoQPXWQ/s4032/PXL_20240111_160146199~2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEEYQlwsRZzsY8iAw1HSsqMYC5YUZ-We8EjOxTfTBxEDVNtonsVoprAgHyYytjG_8iBHcUI6QypEzgepwKJwlWT3MHYQQi2smvzqe7f5EdOKnhyphenhyphenPeEr_k6e70BF2OnTwKZezPEWCtkzFTojxRQiy-COg8lWA9UdJUNGg4cAFXHzOtMCZpNoQPXWQ/w400-h300/PXL_20240111_160146199~2.jpg" width="400" /></b></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><br />On Thursday January 11th when it was 2 degrees C.</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-23378712032093787442024-01-12T13:20:00.087+00:002024-01-12T14:01:12.170+00:00Wushu at the Gym today <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqA2eIDihgyon1t9DFvpGigk5iN_T7omy1AvNHk9w5pQ44hJOXZwVn_RsSPQ_c30uw0JV9AzfhzKGbAGxWeVPUzTRe-R7sXdWvSBG8uuBSWiutvr29N3FqtQh7IAhdIxcU4gJhlUU8XvPEVLBgKL1ffLa8B806w3SKHTN0g84zs8H8jn-iF-IWCQ/s1255/Sword-Form-Practice.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1248" data-original-width="1255" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqA2eIDihgyon1t9DFvpGigk5iN_T7omy1AvNHk9w5pQ44hJOXZwVn_RsSPQ_c30uw0JV9AzfhzKGbAGxWeVPUzTRe-R7sXdWvSBG8uuBSWiutvr29N3FqtQh7IAhdIxcU4gJhlUU8XvPEVLBgKL1ffLa8B806w3SKHTN0g84zs8H8jn-iF-IWCQ/s320/Sword-Form-Practice.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>The sword in its bag: Wushu = Martial Art</b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Clare turns left at the entrance, heading toward the swimming pool and her twenty lengths. Me, I turn right for the sports hall.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">After a few minutes of warm-up exercises and stretches, I do a six minute t'ai chi form. I'm concentrating on posture (<i>should be lower</i>), balance (<i>especially the kicks</i>), rhythm and flow. I know I'm too fast; it should be more like eight minutes but I can't help but be tugged by martial intent (<i>now with speed and power!</i>).</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Next comes the Cheng Man-ch'ing sword form using my Christmas present of the heavier wooden sword (pictured above). I start with a three or four minute form - slow! - to focus on correct posture, flow and balance. Then speed up for power and intent. As in a karate kata, you should imagine an invisible opponent and deliver killing strikes to the neck, limbs and body.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Now it's time for the first four Heian kata. I perform each one once, fairly slowly in a t'ai chi fashion, because I'm not young. I'm looking for accuracy and flow - it's getting there, especially for Heian Yondan with which I am least familiar.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I finish with a further round of either the sword or t'ai chi form and then it's off to the café for a coffee, to relax and wait for Clare.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thirty minutes of practice, three times a week.</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-8678583657988030632024-01-11T17:42:00.006+00:002024-01-13T15:34:44.251+00:00Japan’s population will bounce back - sort of<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEido_NeCQMrdPDjTWjR38pnW0SE_jTfmlSzWt8t6j7zgsmd0PboOzRywW6XmuV_o8TN2gEwwmxH8m5KncCT-gqEP1xRITKjlZXseWXaiZfg_ux16cB7CH-paiH6FOuUoPKSJtANNkK01U-Cp2Qib-EtT_shlzGVM6Y8B5vRBsdDbriamilWAxFGeg/s800/Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="800" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEido_NeCQMrdPDjTWjR38pnW0SE_jTfmlSzWt8t6j7zgsmd0PboOzRywW6XmuV_o8TN2gEwwmxH8m5KncCT-gqEP1xRITKjlZXseWXaiZfg_ux16cB7CH-paiH6FOuUoPKSJtANNkK01U-Cp2Qib-EtT_shlzGVM6Y8B5vRBsdDbriamilWAxFGeg/s320/Japanese_population_chart_1870-2100.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br />From Wikipedia</span></b></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">J</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">apan's TFR (Total Fertility Rate) is around 1.34. This is the average number of children a Japanese family will have in contemporary Japan. The TFR which maintains a steady population level is 2.1 (some fraction of children do not reproduce through death, ill-luck or disinclination).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">People conclude that the Japanese as a country-community are doomed. Since European TFRs are similar, averaging around 1.6, this repugnant conclusion seems quite generalisable.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">But people who write sensational stories in the media about this pay only lip service to evolutionary theory, they don't operationalise it. This bland, average TFR hides subpopulations, some of which don't reproduce at all, but others of which are quite prolific in family size.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Since there is parental genetic influence on the size of family [1] we can treat this fecundity-variance as setting up a process of <i>genetic truncation selection</i>. The structure and incentives of Japanese society (a proxy for almost all advanced countries) poses enormous Darwinian selection pressure against those individuals with genotypes which encourage them to fail to reproduce adequately.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A simple Fermi estimate (a back of the envelope calculation) allows us to predict the result of this massive selection pressure on the Japanese population, in generation time steps.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Simplifying the numbers in [2] below, divide Japanese families into four categories with the following endogenous TFRs:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> - category zero is 25% of the population with TFR zero</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> - category one is 33% of the population </span><span>with </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">TFR one</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> - category two is 33% </span><span>of the population </span><span>with </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">TFR two</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> - category three is 9% </span><span>of the population</span><span> </span><span>with T</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">FR three.</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">So this is the population structure at generation 0. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Assume for ease of calculation that the population of Japan is 123 million. We divide this into three generational age cohorts: 0-25, 25-50,50-75 and assume each cohort is equally numerous at 41 million people.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Over one generation the upper cohort dies (losing 41 million people) and the middle cohort reproduces to replace them (or not).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">To make things more intuitive we will replace the percentages with 100 notional families representing those individuals who reproduce, namely the 41 million strong middle cohort. Call them 40 million to make the sums easier. So each 'family' represents 400,000 people. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">What happens to the population as the generations roll over?</span></p>
<p><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Generation 1: 2025 => 2050</span></b></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">We started with 123 million. The elderly cohort dies leaving 82 million. And now the logic of extreme selection kicks in: </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> - category 0, 25 families, are culled from the gene pool and vanish </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> - the 33 families of category 1 are replaced by 16</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> - the category two families simply replace themselves, remaining 33</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> - the category three families increase their number by 50% to fourteen.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Total number of families is 16 + 33 + 14 = 63. <i>The newborn population is 63 * 400,000 = <b>25 million</b></i>. The new population is 82 million + 25 million = <b>107 million</b>. This is consistent as it happens with the chart at the head of this post.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">(Note: the resulting TFR here is 25/20.5 = 1.2 so our back of the envelope calculation is a slight under-estimate).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Quite a drop from <b>125 million</b>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">What happens next? Those alleles which support a propensity to have children have increased in frequency, but we know the heritability of this trait is not high. So as generation 1 transitions to generation 2 in 2075, we will still see some families having zero offspring (or never forming a family unit at all) while the percentage of those families favouring more offspring will increase.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The modelling would be complex and noisy, but the direction of travel is clear. Darwinian selection is doing its work and a new population being selected for, composed of those families interested in having children despite all the many modern distractions. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Inexorably, the population of individuals who genetically underpin category <i>three</i> will rise exponentially and will eventually dominate in the population, which will itself </span>substantially<span style="font-family: inherit;"> rise in numbers if it can manage to sustain itself.</span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">There is an interesting implication, which escapes no-one who thinks about this in an informed way, that any other genetically-informed traits which co-vary with fertility-promoting alleles will also be selected for. I admire many aspects of Japanese culture but my ignorance of the details of Japanese society is pretty much total. Still, someone much more informed than me should take a look.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">[1] <b>Heritability of family size (from Bard)</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Here are some examples of heritability estimates for family size in different countries:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Denmark: 15-20%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">United States: 20-30%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Australia: 25-30%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Netherlands: 30-40%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Japan: 20%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">-</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">[2] <b>From Bard - family sizes in Japan</b>: </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Here are some specific percentages you might find helpful, based on data from 2020:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Percentage of women aged 45-49 with no children: 22.7%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Percentage of women aged 45-49 with one child: 32.5%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Percentage of women aged 45-49 with two children: 34.2%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Percentage of women aged 45-49 with three or more children: 10.6%</span></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-2693988817474287312024-01-10T10:42:00.000+00:002024-01-10T10:42:20.571+00:00Our 'Advance Decision' signed documents<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Here is the <a href="https://interweave-consulting.blogspot.com/2024/01/advance-decision-template-celia.html">template</a> we used (unchanged!) due to <a href="http://www.welovepolly.org/celias_advance_decision.pdf">Celia Kitzinger</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Clare's and my signed copies are stored (Google Drive/My Data/Wills-Advance-Decision) and in hard copy in our fireproof safe. They were signed in 2011 and remain in force today and for the foreseeable future. Medical professionals please note!</span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-31192395361463901092024-01-10T10:36:00.001+00:002024-01-10T10:36:12.017+00:00Advance Decision template (Celia Kitzinger)<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="http://www.welovepolly.org/celias_advance_decision.pdf">ADVANCE DECISION</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">To Health Care
Professionals:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I,
[YOUR NAME], of [YOUR ADDRESS], have the capacity to make the decisions set out
in this document.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have carefully
considered how I wish to be treated if, in the future, I lose the capacity to
consent to medical treatment, or the ability effectively to communicate my
refusal or consent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Date
of birth:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[YOUR DOB]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">NHS
number:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[YOUR NHS NUMBER]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">National
Insurance Number:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>[YOUR NI NUMBER]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">REFUSAL OF TREATMENT</span></b><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">To
avoid any doubt, and unless stated to the contrary below, I confirm that the
following refusals of treatment are to apply even if my life is at risk or may
be shortened by virtue of such refusal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">In
the event that I am no longer competent to make decisions on my own behalf,
these are the decisions I have made in advance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If I lack mental capacity and also have an advanced disseminated
malignant disease, advanced degenerative disease of the nervous system
(including MS, motor neurone disease and Parkinson’s disease), moderate or
severe brain damage due to injury, stroke, disease or other cause, senile or
pre-senile dementia, severe difficulty in breathing (dyspnoea) that cannot be
cured, or any other condition of comparable gravity, I refuse any medical
intervention aimed at prolonging or sustaining my life.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">In
the event of any of the above conditions applying, I refuse all life-prolonging
treatments, including but not limited to: cardio-pulmonary resuscitation,
artificial ventilation, specialised treatments for particular conditions such
as chemotherapy or dialysis, antibiotics when given for a potentially
life-threatening infection, and artificial hydration and nutrition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I also refuse all life-sustaining treatments
including but not limited to therapies whose purpose is to maintain or replace
a vital bodily function and without which death would most likely occur as a
result of organ or system failure. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I
recognise that I am unlikely specifically to have included all possible current
or future treatments for whatever health condition may lead to the
applicability of this AD. Nonetheless I wish to refuse them. Furthermore
I am unable to anticipate all possible circumstances under which this AD might
become applicable but believe that any such circumstances would be extremely
unlikely to alter my decision had I anticipated them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am very anxious that new treatments or
unpredictable circumstances might be used by my healthcare team to argue that
this AD is not applicable and not binding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I wish so far as I can to pre-empt any such arguments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">CONSENT TO TREATMENT<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I
do consent to any medical treatment to alleviate pain or distress (including
any caused by lack of food or fluid) aimed at my comfort.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I do consent to palliative treatment for
incurable vomiting or feeling sick (but not for treating any underlying
condition causing these symptoms).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
maintain this request even in the event that it may shorten my life. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Upon
my death I wish to donate all usable organs and I consent to any treatment
which is designed to make this possible and to optimise the process.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I have deposited this
advance decision with:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My GP: [GP NAME, GP ADDRESS]<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Signed:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>______________________<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Date: __________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">----------------------------------------------------------------------<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Witness 1 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Witness
Name :<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>_________________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Address:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>__________________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I
witness that this advance decision was signed or acknowledged in my presence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Signature:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>_________________<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dated:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>_________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Witness 2 </span></b><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Witness
Name :<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>_________________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Address:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>__________________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I
witness that this advance decision was signed or acknowledged in my presence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Signature:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>_________________<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dated:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>_________________<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Comic Sans MS"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18648436.post-51962656104328111222024-01-09T19:25:00.001+00:002024-01-09T19:25:58.297+00:00Nothing worse than elderly relatives bearing advice<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqXVR1ZXqAv2KjDQTtvTWMJPcClqNN147CVlQs0UEQqUaIMjabNPHPFvnm7rrZSnar84Hk98aMKCpIUuE3CvrmnTAUxaVJqoURURByx-QoTsSZ4mf3t3BuCFzmW09FUF08TpIvUkv3YTEjcClBGRm7f9huZsHoX5XPNxv0dt76zv1fRc-gMPzs/s772/Advice-elderly-relatives.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="772" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqXVR1ZXqAv2KjDQTtvTWMJPcClqNN147CVlQs0UEQqUaIMjabNPHPFvnm7rrZSnar84Hk98aMKCpIUuE3CvrmnTAUxaVJqoURURByx-QoTsSZ4mf3t3BuCFzmW09FUF08TpIvUkv3YTEjcClBGRm7f9huZsHoX5XPNxv0dt76zv1fRc-gMPzs/s320/Advice-elderly-relatives.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hi fellow comrades-in-arms for justice,</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Let me introduce myself. I'm a student, a radical and passionate for change. I despise the tired establishment of this country which only ever presides over failure. Everything’s broken; nothing gets fixed; I'm terminally bored.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And that's why I’m wired for action.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Get outta the way, Grandpa!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Speaking of that, my dad gave me a copy of a letter my granddad wrote to me years ago - before he died. It was kept for me until I was eighteen! How condescending is that? I hate all that <i>advice from beyond the grave</i> stuff.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So here's an extract of what I have to put up with - just hear the pompous pontification, the smug condescension!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“... It is the destiny of teens and twenty-something's to yearn for a cause, to join a movement of like-minded people fighting for a better future for all, as they see it. The activist tribe is intoxicating: self-righteous events follow one from other; there is no shortage of parties and romantic partners. Loneliness is banished, life is collective, active, exciting and seldom boring.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“The cause is seldom analysed too closely or too seriously. Christianity once promised Salvation and Heaven-on-Earth; Marxism promised a radical equality, the end of oppression, the unlocking of all the forces of progress; climate activism fights clear enemies to save a biosphere fit for all the people.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“But it takes years of immersion in the esoteric doctrines of the cause before its objectives, strategies and tactics can be properly understood and deployed. Rebuttals which are compelling rely upon complex analyses spanning several disciplines with which you will not, at this stage of your life, be familiar. During your period of apprenticeship you will be emotionally committed to the movement, chained to the induction process … and immune from outside criticism which you will find either tribal nonsense or too sophisticated for easy comprehension.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“And here is a meta-critique to which you are also immune.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“It is in the nature of young people, particularly those in somewhat elite institutions such as the universities, to believe they are owed a pathway to future success. In advanced economies, however, the pyramid is steep - and narrow at the top. Few aspirants will make it, and those few will generally owe their success to their family connections (in a very few cases, outstanding talent may hack it).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“The struggle therefore is bogus. It cannot deliver you what is promised. The Kingdom of God on Earth will not happen; the Communist Revolution will require an evolution to a world utterly different from your own; the Green movement's strategy is utterly decoupled from actually solving the problems it purports to address.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“So enjoy the struggle while you remain starry-eyed. Then enjoy it in retrospect as a fulfilling coming-of-age. Unless you were born with silver spoon in mouth (you were not!) - or you get very lucky indeed - you will need to readjust your objectives as you leave your twenties. We live in a complex society: hopefully you didn't trash your studies, your CV or your reputation in ways that prevent you from finding a life trajectory which really does work for you in future.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">“Have fun - I wish you well...”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">---</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Easy for him to dump all over us, isn't it. He's dead.</span></p>Adam Carltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11665926865055669746noreply@blogger.com0