Temperament: American Polarisation and Revolution

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Temperament:  American Polarisation and Revolution

American politics looks like a knife-edge. Yet if you sort the population by temperament rather than party, you find a skew that seems to favour the Right: a large plurality of “Guardian” personalities who prefer order, duty, and the familiar.

Why, then, are presidential races close? Because temperament is not destiny, coalitions are messy, and different types wield different kinds of power.

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Two lenses: FFM and MBTI/Keirsey

The Five-Factor Model (FFM) treats personality as degrees of Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. 

MBTI/Keirsey clusters people into temperaments: Guardians (SJ), Idealists (NF), Artisans (SP), and Rationals (NT). These categories do not pick parties; they arrange priorities. But that’s enough to shape coalitions.

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The stock types that drive the narrative

The MAGA working-class archetype presents as lower Openness, higher Conscientiousness, in-group loyalty, and a concrete, rule-informed worldview. In MBTI terms, that looks SJ (e.g. ISTJ or ESTJ), what Keirsey called the Guardians.

The progressive “woke” student archetype sketches as high Openness, high universalist Agreeableness, and a future-oriented, abstract style. In MBTI, that often looks NF (e.g. ENFP or INFJ), the Idealists.

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Why the numbers don’t settle the election

Guardians are numerous - roughly four in ten Americans. Idealists are fewer, perhaps one to two in ten, but clustered in universities, media, nonprofits, and culture industries. The first group has mass; the second has the megaphone.

Elections hinge on how these energies combine with race, religion, class, region, and education. The balance is not so much arithmetical as ecological.

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How the big Guardian bloc actually splits

ISTJ (“Inspector”): rule-following, security-minded. Many in the military, police, trades, agencies. Often conservative, yet a substantial public-sector slice leans Democratic - think unions.

ESTJ (“Supervisor”): managerial, pragmatic. Small-business and community leaders trend Republican; union-linked ESTJs in the Midwest historically voted blue. Realignment has shifted many rightward.

ISFJ (“Protector”): caregiving, duty-bound. White churchgoing ISFJs lean Republican; Black and Hispanic churchgoing ISFJs are overwhelmingly Democratic. Net effect: strong blue presence despite “traditionalist” vibes.

ESFJ (“Provider”): sociable, community-first. Suburban white ESFJs swing; minority ESFJs vote Democratic. These voters are often decisive in the suburbs that call elections.

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FFM tilts that cross-cut politics

Openness drives a taste for change and theory. High-Openness progressives dominate discourse and the institutions that set narratives. 

Conscientiousness steers regard for rules and duty. High-Conscientiousness Guardians dominate electoral turnout and local institutions. 

Agreeableness splits: universalist empathy points left; loyalty-centric empathy points right.

Neuroticism raises perceived threat on both sides but with different objects: cultural decay vs systemic injustice, often with a moralistic tinge.

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The other temperaments that tip the scales

Artisans (SP, ~30%) value spontaneity, autonomy, and performance. Non-college men in SP-heavy environments often trend Republican; creative-industry SPs lean Democratic (think Bruce Springsteen). Volatile, turnout-sensitive.

Rationals (NT, ~10%) value systems and competence. Educated professionals historically skewed Democratic on general libertarian grounds, but a vocal NT minority now defects right on their repulsion from emotional moralising, over-regulation, and institutional-capture.

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Why elections stay close

Neither party can monopolise the Guardians.

Democrats hold large Guardian contingents through minority religious communities, public-sector unions, and care professions.

Republicans hold large Guardian contingents through white church networks, small business, and rural/exurban infrastructure.

Idealists and Rationals shape elite rhetoric and policy pipelines; Artisans and a swath of Guardians decide margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona.

The result is equilibrium by counterweight, not equality of type.

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Coalition mechanics in one sentence

Republicans are powered by SJ + SP mass with rising non-college minorities; Democrats are powered by NF + NT institutions plus minority SJs; both sides win only by persuading and turning out the overlapping Guardian middle.

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What this suggests for strategy

Appeals framed as order, duty, continuity speak Guardian.

Appeals framed as meaning, justice, authenticity speak Idealist.

The winning campaigns translate between these grammars without triggering the other side’s threat detectors. That is rare. When it happens, landslides follow. When it fails, America seesaws.

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Historical perspective

These dynamics are not uniquely American. History shows the same recurring division: the conservative majority of Guardians, the idealistic minority of Idealists, the hard-nosed and strategic Rationals who seize conceptual leadership of upheavals, and the volatile Artisans who supply muscle.

Revolutions often follow the same pattern: Idealists provide moral fire, Rationals plan the revolt, Artisans execute with force, and Guardians resist until concessions or collapse.

Lenin, Trotsky, Robespierre - system-builders in the NT mould - rode intellectual/cultural NF angst and SP muscle to overturn SJ structures of the ancien régime.

America’s cultural wars are a local expression of this timeless cycle: the clash of conserving majorities and visionary minorities, with strategic Rationals and opportunistic Artisans shaping whether change is blocked for a while, gradual, chaotic, or catastrophic. We shall see.

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