COVID-19 Notes: March 19th 2020

 

Amazon link

Sun Tzu's 'Art of War' is quite a short text dating from the Late Spring and Autumn Period (roughly 5th century BC). It mostly describes how to fight guerrilla wars of deception against a numerically-stronger enemy in various terrains. The advice is functional and callous, describing for example the great utility of 'disposable spies' for feeding false information to the enemy (they will of course be killed once their treachery is unmasked) and noting the improved resolve of armies manoeuvered onto 'fatal terrain' deep in enemy territory, where they will fight or die.

The reason I read the book was more for the copious introduction and scene-setting - Chinese history prior to and during the Warring States period (475 BC). Also the subsequent understanding of The Art of War in the empires which followed. What I learned was that the Emperor, the Son of Heaven, had a Mandate of Heaven. As Wikipedia explains:

"According to this belief, Heaven (天, Tian) — which embodies the natural order and will of the universe — bestows the mandate on a just ruler of China, the "Son of Heaven" of the "Celestial Empire". If a ruler was overthrown, this was interpreted as an indication that the ruler was unworthy, and had lost the mandate. It was also a common belief that natural disasters such as famine and flood were divine retributions bearing signs of Heaven's displeasure with the ruler, so there would often be revolts following major disasters as the people saw these calamities as signs that the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn."

In this light it is not hard to see why the Chinese Communist Party and State used such severe methods to drop R0 to around 0.3 and squelch the epidemic. It wasn't humanitarian concerns - it was their response to an existential test of their right to rule.

Amazon link

I'm currently reading this: an analysis of recent Chinese history (humiliation and shame at the hands of Western and Japanese imperialists - only reversed in the last few decades). The story is told through the biographies of key Chinese intellectuals and leaders. Basically China had to make a major cultural shift from the dead-weight of an agrarian-Confucianism (rigid, static and statist) to a form and ideology of governance which would permit the development of a dominant capitalism. It's ironic that only a Stalinist version of Marxist-Leninism could prove strong enough to force open those doors. The Chinese now feel sufficiently secure to readmit a new, legitimising neo-Confucianism.

The chapters itemise a chronicle of defeat as all obvious strategies of modernisation were attempted only to fail, leading to further predations by China's vulure-enemies. You can see why they hate the Japanese and despise the West: they have every reason to based on recent history.

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I remain sceptical about European attempts to push R0 below 1. Despite Greg Cochran's advocacy (which I linked to in a previous post). I think people have no idea just how very drastic, very police-stateish, were the methods employed in East Asia.

In Italy, by contrast, the lockdown measures sound suitably draconian. However, mobile phone records shows widespread non-compliance (45% of Italians are wandering around outside their homes), the case-numbers keep rising and in the anarchic south the infection has barely begun. All this talk of Italy soon reaching a peak is so much hot air.

In the UK - more compliant but more densely populated - they will certainly get R0 reduced but I'm doubtful if the epidemic can be put into reverse. I'm not even sure that's the real intention. As people have pointed out, the Imperial paper which everyone was citing assumed that treatment resources would stay flatlined. But of course they will quickly ramp up over the next two months or so, compensating for our inability to actually lock down enough people.

Playing with exponentials is a risky business, like trying to hold a slippery fish. This could still all go pear-shaped (if the pears are >1 exponential).

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We ourselves are hunkered down and will pop out to Waitrose this evening when numbers are predicted by Google to be low. Grab some milk to freeze. Don't think there are many infected in Wells yet so it's still the phony war. As Covid-19 is a disease of the elite, I suggested we might shop at Morrisons instead, but Clare noticed their toilets were pretty unhygienic a while ago, so that's ruled out.

Meanwhile, life goes on...

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