Thursday, March 05, 2020

COVID-19 notes: plague month four





1. "This solves so many problems!"

Humour saying the unsayable. We have too many old people. We have too many old people clogging our health systems and care homes. We can't afford decent support while no-one will countenance those helpful little pills for the elderly infirm. And now nature has come along to solve our problem.

As regards the political and economic conditions of the poor, the Black Death was a real public good.

Subsequently.

2. Follow the Money

I was doing calculations (parameter estimations for logistics curves) to try to figure out when the epidemic will finally burn itself out. But the James Bond people have helpfully solved the problem (was ever a film better named!). "No Time To Die" has been postponed to November.

3. There are two mutations, 'L' and 'S' in the world (so far)

The more aggressive 'L strain' appears to be less prevalent, possibly due to increased suppression due to it being more apparent to surveillance (and quarantine). However, we are in the earliest stages of the pandemic globally and the number of mutations correlates with the number of viruses in replication.

It is unlikely that the virus is at its peak of fitness in current incarnations. And RNA viruses have a hundredfold greater mutation rate than DNA viruses.

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Rhetorical question: how many people are currently envisioning themselves a few months from now lying pallid and dizzy in their beds while slowly drowning from fluid build-up in their lungs?

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