As usual, click on a picture to make it larger.
Elaine, drawn by the sea
The Beach at Brean Down
Elaine meets a Pole - hmmm...
Adrian holding on against the wind
Beryl Seel
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Brean Down
A trip down to see my brother Adrian and his family, holidaying at Brean Down, near Weston-super-Mare yesterday. A bright day but with a bitter wind. The beach at Brean is very flat, with closely-compacted fine sand. When we strolled down, the tide was way, way out.
As usual, click on a picture to make it larger.
As usual, click on a picture to make it larger.
Monday, April 27, 2009
State of Play
We took in the late performance of "State of Play" Sunday evening (poster below).
For once, Clare had us go early to make sure we got a seat at what would surely be an extremely popular film. In fact we bought the third and fourth tickets for the show. I think the cinema had an occupancy of around seven people as the film started.
Overall a good two hours entertainment. Helen Mirren as newspaper boss was as unconvincing as the critics had suggested, and thankfully an ageing (but still gorgeous - Clare) Russell Crowe was spared a liaison with his pretty-but-youthful blogging sidekick Rachel McAdams, having to settle instead for the ageing-but-still-blonde wife of the errant congressman.
It was fun: enjoy.
For once, Clare had us go early to make sure we got a seat at what would surely be an extremely popular film. In fact we bought the third and fourth tickets for the show. I think the cinema had an occupancy of around seven people as the film started.
Overall a good two hours entertainment. Helen Mirren as newspaper boss was as unconvincing as the critics had suggested, and thankfully an ageing (but still gorgeous - Clare) Russell Crowe was spared a liaison with his pretty-but-youthful blogging sidekick Rachel McAdams, having to settle instead for the ageing-but-still-blonde wife of the errant congressman.
It was fun: enjoy.
The Flu Exponential
Let's make some back-of-the-envelope calculations (just for fun).
Swine flu is starting its exponential increase in most advanced countries in parallel, from a small base. So it suffices to consider England. Assume that we start with 16 infectious cases today and that the number of infected individuals doubles every day.
Then in 10 days we have 16,000 cases; in 20 days we have 16 million cases and the "whole population" is infected at day 22. That's comfortably by May 19th.
Since the global population today is closely connected both by air transport and in dense conurbations (starting with Mexico) there is no evolutionary advantage to the virus to hang around in the host. The ones which trash the human victim to reproduce as rapidly as possible will have most offspring. So expect the virus to get more virulent.
We were in the supermarket this morning and noticed neither extra shoppers nor a run on canned food. It will be interesting to see the situation in 10 days time.
Note that if it gets really serious, then essential services such as water and power may also be interrupted so the idea that one can just stock up, ease back from socialising and catch up with a backlog of reading or TV-watching seems unduly optimistic (not to mention callous).
So far it's a dress-rehearsal for the putative future bird-flu pandemic, but we shall see.
Jokes about Swine Flu.
Swine flu is starting its exponential increase in most advanced countries in parallel, from a small base. So it suffices to consider England. Assume that we start with 16 infectious cases today and that the number of infected individuals doubles every day.
Then in 10 days we have 16,000 cases; in 20 days we have 16 million cases and the "whole population" is infected at day 22. That's comfortably by May 19th.
Since the global population today is closely connected both by air transport and in dense conurbations (starting with Mexico) there is no evolutionary advantage to the virus to hang around in the host. The ones which trash the human victim to reproduce as rapidly as possible will have most offspring. So expect the virus to get more virulent.
We were in the supermarket this morning and noticed neither extra shoppers nor a run on canned food. It will be interesting to see the situation in 10 days time.
Note that if it gets really serious, then essential services such as water and power may also be interrupted so the idea that one can just stock up, ease back from socialising and catch up with a backlog of reading or TV-watching seems unduly optimistic (not to mention callous).
So far it's a dress-rehearsal for the putative future bird-flu pandemic, but we shall see.
Jokes about Swine Flu.
“Friendly Fire” by Alaa Al Aswany
A review post on Amazon here.
Alaa Al Aswany is an Egyptian novelist, journalist and activist who trained at the University of Illinois in Chicago, and subsequently worked as a dentist (faute de mieux) in Cairo. He has previously written two novels: "The Yacoubian Building" set in Egypt where he worked, and "Chicago", exploring the experiences of Egyptians in the US and set at the University of Illinois where he studied. Aswany is also a founding member of Kefaya, the modernising political opposition in Egypt. "Friendly Fire" is his third book consisting of the novella "He Who Drew Close and Saw" and a further nine short stories.
In some ways I found the novella to be the most disappointing item of the collection. It tells the story of Isam, an Egyptian intellectual from a poor family who experiences considerable alienation both from his own family and from the society around him. We learn about his father, a talented artist who gets nowhere because of his 'lack of charisma' and who surrounds himself with other mediocre failures, and the other members of his family – all portrayed in an unflattering light. Isam gets a job at a research institute where no-one does anything, and the director sexually abuses the cleaning women. Isam finally has an epiphany: it’s western culture which provides salvation - all progress, innovation and new ideas have come from that one source alone.
Isam then meets a German woman, Jutta, in the German Cultural Centre and, improbably for such a timid and antisocial soul, makes a successful pass at her. After a torrid night of passion he arranges to meet her the next day only to find she has completely vanished, as has all evidence that she ever existed. Allegory or madness?
Aswany’s writing almost always holds interest, and there is meaning on many levels. My main concern here is just the structure of the plotting which seems loose and in the end confusing.
The nine short stories are a varied collection: snapshots and vignettes both of specifically Egyptian life and of the human universals of family life, career and relationships. There are several school-based stories which in each case feature an outsider (a disabled person, a fat-boy and an upper-class foreigner) with a theme of collective cruelty and betrayal.
My favourite two stories were “An Old Blue Dress and a Close-fitting Covering for the Head, Brightly Covered” and “The Kitchen Boy”. In the former, the young man Salah seduces a poor girl, gets her pregnant and funds an abortion – and persuades himself that she is at fault and is probably trying to manipulate him into marriage; in the second half of the story, we jump forward to Saleh’s infatuation with a ‘very religious’ girl with a very different outcome.
“The Kitchen Boy” is especially disturbing, recounting the fate of a very bright boy Hisham who finds his intelligence of no use whatsoever in Medical School. In the end Hisham’s miserable fortunes change as he discovers and accommodates the Chairman of the Department of General Surgery’s peculiar ‘moral’ preferences.
In summary, this fine collection illuminates the many facets of a society with endemic corruption, hypocrisy and the myriad cruelties inflicted by those in positions of power. Unfortunately, there is little hope given here of change any time soon.
Alaa Al Aswany is an Egyptian novelist, journalist and activist who trained at the University of Illinois in Chicago, and subsequently worked as a dentist (faute de mieux) in Cairo. He has previously written two novels: "The Yacoubian Building" set in Egypt where he worked, and "Chicago", exploring the experiences of Egyptians in the US and set at the University of Illinois where he studied. Aswany is also a founding member of Kefaya, the modernising political opposition in Egypt. "Friendly Fire" is his third book consisting of the novella "He Who Drew Close and Saw" and a further nine short stories.
In some ways I found the novella to be the most disappointing item of the collection. It tells the story of Isam, an Egyptian intellectual from a poor family who experiences considerable alienation both from his own family and from the society around him. We learn about his father, a talented artist who gets nowhere because of his 'lack of charisma' and who surrounds himself with other mediocre failures, and the other members of his family – all portrayed in an unflattering light. Isam gets a job at a research institute where no-one does anything, and the director sexually abuses the cleaning women. Isam finally has an epiphany: it’s western culture which provides salvation - all progress, innovation and new ideas have come from that one source alone.
Isam then meets a German woman, Jutta, in the German Cultural Centre and, improbably for such a timid and antisocial soul, makes a successful pass at her. After a torrid night of passion he arranges to meet her the next day only to find she has completely vanished, as has all evidence that she ever existed. Allegory or madness?
Aswany’s writing almost always holds interest, and there is meaning on many levels. My main concern here is just the structure of the plotting which seems loose and in the end confusing.
The nine short stories are a varied collection: snapshots and vignettes both of specifically Egyptian life and of the human universals of family life, career and relationships. There are several school-based stories which in each case feature an outsider (a disabled person, a fat-boy and an upper-class foreigner) with a theme of collective cruelty and betrayal.
My favourite two stories were “An Old Blue Dress and a Close-fitting Covering for the Head, Brightly Covered” and “The Kitchen Boy”. In the former, the young man Salah seduces a poor girl, gets her pregnant and funds an abortion – and persuades himself that she is at fault and is probably trying to manipulate him into marriage; in the second half of the story, we jump forward to Saleh’s infatuation with a ‘very religious’ girl with a very different outcome.
“The Kitchen Boy” is especially disturbing, recounting the fate of a very bright boy Hisham who finds his intelligence of no use whatsoever in Medical School. In the end Hisham’s miserable fortunes change as he discovers and accommodates the Chairman of the Department of General Surgery’s peculiar ‘moral’ preferences.
In summary, this fine collection illuminates the many facets of a society with endemic corruption, hypocrisy and the myriad cruelties inflicted by those in positions of power. Unfortunately, there is little hope given here of change any time soon.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Hinton Ampner House
When we went to Avebury a few days back we joined the National Trust. This was mostly to get our £3 car parking fee back, but we also thought we might be taking trips to some of their other assets. And so it has proved.
Today Clare and myself drove down to Hinton Ampner House, dodging threatening cumulus clouds and braced against a chilling wind. Access to the House and Gardens we found to be free at the point of use, as intended.
I was not especially motivated to take any pictures - the house/garden view below is from the Internet. However, as we walked the surrounding fields, Clare encouraged me incessantly to snap this and that engaging group of sheep. I have therefore selected the two best sheep-shots of my over-ample collection, realising that this is really only a specialist interest.
One, I hasten to add, that I fail to share. Enjoy, sheep-lovers out there (you know who you are!).
Today Clare and myself drove down to Hinton Ampner House, dodging threatening cumulus clouds and braced against a chilling wind. Access to the House and Gardens we found to be free at the point of use, as intended.
I was not especially motivated to take any pictures - the house/garden view below is from the Internet. However, as we walked the surrounding fields, Clare encouraged me incessantly to snap this and that engaging group of sheep. I have therefore selected the two best sheep-shots of my over-ample collection, realising that this is really only a specialist interest.
One, I hasten to add, that I fail to share. Enjoy, sheep-lovers out there (you know who you are!).
Hinton Ampner House
Sheep families - note absent fathers
Clare thought this one was cute ...
Thursday, April 23, 2009
This and That
Adrian became the third person to read my short story and - how shall we say? - not necessarily get the author's intent. The format - an epistolary structure based on blog entries - seems to me to be at fault and I think the answer is to remake the underlying story in a more conventional form.
___
Reading my forthcoming SMXR358 Summer School material, I came across the following method of estimating uncertainty when counting randomly occurring events (I quote).
If the number of randomly occurring events counted in a given period is N, the uncertainty in this count (i.e. the likely difference between N and the mean that would be found from a long series of repeated experiments) is √(N).
Example: if the mean is 100 counts, 68% 0f experiments will produce results within 90 and 110 counts i.e. +/- √100.
So where does that come from? I asked a tutor last year and we had an inconclusive discussion about Poisson distributions which seemed beside the point. Anyway, I reviewed it again and came to the following conclusion.
Suppose that there is an underlying binomial process with very low probability p of producing an observable event, and high probability q = (1-p)≈ 1 of not producing an observable event in a given time period. Radioactive decay would be an example.
Let T be the total number of underlying events (observable and not) which occur during the course of a single experiment and let Tp be the expected number of observable events. The average of the counts N which are measured would tend to this value over a number of experiments.
The standard deviation σ of the distribution is √(Tpq) = √(N *q) ≈ √N, as q is nearly 1.
So using the normal distribution approximation, 68% of measured values of N will lie within +/- 1σ of the mean, Tp, which is +/- √N as stated. Note that we use measured N as a best estimator for Tp.
Update
I could have got to this more elegantly. The p ≈ 0 and q ≈ 1 condition and the large number of trials T is the condition for the Poisson distribution to apply. And in the Poisson distribution, the variance = the mean N, so the standard deviation is the square root of the mean = √N.
___
Reading my forthcoming SMXR358 Summer School material, I came across the following method of estimating uncertainty when counting randomly occurring events (I quote).
If the number of randomly occurring events counted in a given period is N, the uncertainty in this count (i.e. the likely difference between N and the mean that would be found from a long series of repeated experiments) is √(N).
Example: if the mean is 100 counts, 68% 0f experiments will produce results within 90 and 110 counts i.e. +/- √100.
So where does that come from? I asked a tutor last year and we had an inconclusive discussion about Poisson distributions which seemed beside the point. Anyway, I reviewed it again and came to the following conclusion.
Suppose that there is an underlying binomial process with very low probability p of producing an observable event, and high probability q = (1-p)≈ 1 of not producing an observable event in a given time period. Radioactive decay would be an example.
Let T be the total number of underlying events (observable and not) which occur during the course of a single experiment and let Tp be the expected number of observable events. The average of the counts N which are measured would tend to this value over a number of experiments.
The standard deviation σ of the distribution is √(Tpq) = √(N *q) ≈ √N, as q is nearly 1.
So using the normal distribution approximation, 68% of measured values of N will lie within +/- 1σ of the mean, Tp, which is +/- √N as stated. Note that we use measured N as a best estimator for Tp.
Update
I could have got to this more elegantly. The p ≈ 0 and q ≈ 1 condition and the large number of trials T is the condition for the Poisson distribution to apply. And in the Poisson distribution, the variance = the mean N, so the standard deviation is the square root of the mean = √N.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Heale Gardens
Visited Heale Gardens just north of Salisbury this afternoon. Pix below.
Heale House (not open to the public)
Adrian, myself and Clare
Adrian checking out a feature
"Yes, those are the trees I meant"
Adrian and Alex
"Was this the original Triffid?"
And cream teas to finish the day.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Pseudo-Twitter
What I would write if I had a Twitter account.
Thursday evening around 11 p.m. during Newsnight.
We heard the catflap bang open, followed by a dreadful squeaking. Yes, Shadow had caught his first baby rabbit of the season. With great effort the poor damaged thing was detached from feline jaws and deposited in the undergrowth 200 metres away, the predator being meanwhile held in restraint.
Friday afternoon.
I completed a possible short story for submission to Interzone. The tale has a subtle twist in the tail which proved so subtle that neither Clare nor Alex could make head nor tail of it. I am consequently persuaded of the need for a trifling adjustment.
Saturday afternoon.
Captivated by the warmer weather and a hint of sun, Alex, Clare and myself ventured out to the New Forest, near Ringwood. We proceeded to get hopelessly lost, completely failing to find our target car park to commence The Walk.
Instead we found a pub and had lunch. After restoring our bearings we completed a reasonable circular tour (c. 3 miles) and repaired to the house to find that Adrian had returned in our absence. So now we are four.
Thursday evening around 11 p.m. during Newsnight.
We heard the catflap bang open, followed by a dreadful squeaking. Yes, Shadow had caught his first baby rabbit of the season. With great effort the poor damaged thing was detached from feline jaws and deposited in the undergrowth 200 metres away, the predator being meanwhile held in restraint.
Friday afternoon.
I completed a possible short story for submission to Interzone. The tale has a subtle twist in the tail which proved so subtle that neither Clare nor Alex could make head nor tail of it. I am consequently persuaded of the need for a trifling adjustment.
Saturday afternoon.
Captivated by the warmer weather and a hint of sun, Alex, Clare and myself ventured out to the New Forest, near Ringwood. We proceeded to get hopelessly lost, completely failing to find our target car park to commence The Walk.
Instead we found a pub and had lunch. After restoring our bearings we completed a reasonable circular tour (c. 3 miles) and repaired to the house to find that Adrian had returned in our absence. So now we are four.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
A small kindling of the vanities
Just completed the third computer assignment, iCMA53, for SM358 - Quantum Mechanics with the Open University.
I began yesterday and after a promising start got stuck on two questions. What does stuck mean? I calculated the answer, typed it in and got the response "You are incorrect". An unwanted hint followed, plus a deduction of three scoring points. I tried again. Still wrong. So I left the two problem questions, moved on, got some more right, and then abandoned the exercise for the day.
This morning I completed the rest of the assignment with no problems and returned with a fresh eye to my two problematic questions.
The first requested a numerical value which I had entered as 0.76 to 2 s.f. The correct computation is 0.75 to 2 s.f. There followed a small period of self-laceration as I called myself a complete, careless idiot for failing to accurately truncate what I had read off the calculator screen.
The second question was about the time evolution of a wavefunction in a harmonic well. Given a specific wavefunction (a superposition of the 2nd and third eigenfunctions) at t =0, what was the wavefunction half a period later (π/ω0)? Iworked this out with exquisite care and entered my response ... only to get "Your answer is incorrect" to the point where there were no more hints. I had flunked it! I was advised by the system that I needed to spend more time studying the principles of wave packet superposition. Yeah, right.
I looked at their model solution - how had my answer been out by a factor of i?
Ah, I see it now. In the question, one of the eigenfunctions had i as a coefficient, which in my careless way I had entirely missed. Standard bug: misread the question.
I was so irritated with my carelessness, and with the rigidity of the computer system's misdiagnosis of my problem that I hastened to vent my indignation here. Oh vanity.
Perhaps I should get out more.
I began yesterday and after a promising start got stuck on two questions. What does stuck mean? I calculated the answer, typed it in and got the response "You are incorrect". An unwanted hint followed, plus a deduction of three scoring points. I tried again. Still wrong. So I left the two problem questions, moved on, got some more right, and then abandoned the exercise for the day.
This morning I completed the rest of the assignment with no problems and returned with a fresh eye to my two problematic questions.
The first requested a numerical value which I had entered as 0.76 to 2 s.f. The correct computation is 0.75 to 2 s.f. There followed a small period of self-laceration as I called myself a complete, careless idiot for failing to accurately truncate what I had read off the calculator screen.
The second question was about the time evolution of a wavefunction in a harmonic well. Given a specific wavefunction (a superposition of the 2nd and third eigenfunctions) at t =0, what was the wavefunction half a period later (π/ω0)? Iworked this out with exquisite care and entered my response ... only to get "Your answer is incorrect" to the point where there were no more hints. I had flunked it! I was advised by the system that I needed to spend more time studying the principles of wave packet superposition. Yeah, right.
I looked at their model solution - how had my answer been out by a factor of i?
Ah, I see it now. In the question, one of the eigenfunctions had i as a coefficient, which in my careless way I had entirely missed. Standard bug: misread the question.
I was so irritated with my carelessness, and with the rigidity of the computer system's misdiagnosis of my problem that I hastened to vent my indignation here. Oh vanity.
Perhaps I should get out more.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Interzone Subscription
Today I took out a 12-copy subscription to the SF magazine Interzone. Once I have figured out the house style, I hope to submit some publishable stories.
It only remains to settle on some strong, believable characters the reader can identify with; to develop a plot with early hooks, some non-obvious twists and a surprise ending; to add texture and audience-immersion through rich and picturesque descriptive writing; and to power it all with those awe-inspiring ideas without which no SF story can truly fly - tropes such as hi-tech weaponry; trans-human-level AI; synthetic personalities indistinguishable from their human templates; human cloning; augmentation implants; well, you know that stuff .... oh, and short sentences. Naturally one will use a setting of tomorrow to illuminate the great unspoken-of and unresolved issues of today in a novel guise, as SF has always done.
I can hardly wait to read it myself.
It only remains to settle on some strong, believable characters the reader can identify with; to develop a plot with early hooks, some non-obvious twists and a surprise ending; to add texture and audience-immersion through rich and picturesque descriptive writing; and to power it all with those awe-inspiring ideas without which no SF story can truly fly - tropes such as hi-tech weaponry; trans-human-level AI; synthetic personalities indistinguishable from their human templates; human cloning; augmentation implants; well, you know that stuff .... oh, and short sentences. Naturally one will use a setting of tomorrow to illuminate the great unspoken-of and unresolved issues of today in a novel guise, as SF has always done.
I can hardly wait to read it myself.
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