"The Arms of the Future" - Jack Watling (review)

 

I asked Gemini to summarise this review from Frank Hoffman, which is quite long, into something more succinct:

"Jack Watling's book, "The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century," tackles a critical question: how should armies adapt to the changing face of war?  Warfare is becoming more lethal, with new drone technologies and a renewed focus on urban combat.  Watling argues that armies are not keeping pace, clinging to outdated structures and simply adding new tech on top.

The book proposes a complete overhaul of force design.  Part 1 dives into the future battlefield, analyzing  increased transparency due to sensor technology, the limitations of armor in the face of rising lethality, and the enduring challenges of urban warfare.

Part 2 gets practical, outlining a new force structure with four key subsystems: maneuver, fires, assault, and support.  This new design emphasizes dispersed formations for better survivability, increased lethality to counter enemy firepower, and the ability to adapt to the unique demands of urban combat.  It also integrates drones more seamlessly and calls for lighter, more agile armored vehicles.

Importantly, Watling doesn't advocate abandoning traditional maneuver tactics.  He acknowledges the role of armor but emphasizes overcoming its limitations through clever tactics that create ambiguity and deception.

"The Arms of the Future" is a well-researched book that draws on real-world conflicts and the insights of military experts.  While it doesn't delve into unconventional warfare or address the specific needs of special operations forces, it offers a wealth of practical solutions and raises important questions about how armies should be structured for the future battlefield.  This book is a must-read for policymakers and military personnel serious about adapting to the ever-changing nature of war. It provides a strong foundation for further discussion and experimentation on how to build a military that can thrive in the coming decades."

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I would add: the book is undeniably important. Its focus on military architecture and logistics shows a deep comprehension for the realities of sustainable warfighting. However, it is written for military strategy professionals: jargon-rich and abstract in tone. It requires sustained attention.

My concern is that it captures a moment in time, where robotic/autonomous sensor/effector systems and AI synthesis/analysis systems have capabilities impossible to ignore, but not at capability to replace trained soldiers in any current department of warfare. 

But progress is exceptionally rapid: what will the situation look like in five or ten years time?

The problem is that re-engineering a major power's military is a generational process, measured in decades. It seems clear that the journey Watling has charted must be followed, but substantial course corrections seem likely within successive five year windows. 

Will military bureaucracies be up for the challenge, not just of change but of changing change?

Blinded by Deception: Navigating the Fog of GPS Warfare

 

From OpenArt

Imagine piloting a high-tech drone, only to have its navigation system hijacked by an invisible enemy. This isn't science fiction; it's the chilling reality of GPS spoofing and denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, posing a critical threat to modern militaries reliant on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Not yet do we see drone-on-drone aerial dogfights. Today's battlefields are dominated by silent UAVs, eyes in the sky gathering intel and delivering precision strikes. But their effectiveness hinges on accurate navigation, often solely provided by GPS. Just like your phone, these drones rely on satellite signals for positioning, making them vulnerable to manipulation.

Enter the nefarious world of spoofing. Malicious actors can mimic GPS signals, broadcasting false data that throws the UAV's navigation system off course. Imagine your drone being tricked into thinking it's miles away, potentially flying into enemy territory or missing its target by a devastating margin.

DoS attacks take a different approach, overwhelming GPS satellites with jamming signals, essentially blinding the drones to their true location. This can render an entire fleet of UAVs useless, crippling reconnaissance and attack capabilities.

So, how are militaries fighting back in this fog of GPS warfare? Here's a glimpse into their arsenal:

1. Diversifying the Drone's Senses: Moving beyond GPS, militaries are equipping UAVs with a multi-sensory navigation suite. Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) use internal sensors to track movement, while terrain-matching algorithms compare real-time imagery to onboard maps. Celestial navigation, an age-old technique, utilizes the stars as celestial beacons. Each method has its limitations, but their combined data paints a more accurate picture, making it harder to fool the drone.

2. Redundancy and Fault Tolerance: Just like having a spare tire, militaries are equipping drones with multiple GPS receivers and INUs. If one is spoofed or jammed, the others can still provide some level of navigation, preventing complete blackout. Ground-based radio systems can provide location abilities at strong signal strengths, like the British Gee navigation system for bombers in WW2.

3. Advanced Spoofing Detection: Gone are the days of simply trusting the GPS signal. Militaries are developing sophisticated algorithms that can sniff out fake signals by analyzing signal strength, satellite geometry, and even subtle inconsistencies in the data.

4. Cooperative Navigation: Imagine drones sharing navigational data like a flock of birds. This is the essence of cooperative navigation, where UAVs use information from each other to cross-check their positions and identify anomalies. This not only bolsters individual drones but also creates a resilient network that's harder to disrupt.

The battle for GPS supremacy is far from over. As technology advances, so too will the sophistication of spoofing and jamming techniques. But by diversifying their navigation toolbox, embracing redundancy, and developing advanced detection and cooperation strategies, militaries are taking crucial steps to ensure their UAVs remain sharp-sighted even in the fog of GPS warfare.

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This was written by Bard from lengthy prompts, following reports of the failure of American precision munitions on the Ukraine-Russian front due to Russian GPS jamming/spoofing. I also asked Bard to write this in the style of "Foreign Affairs" or "The Economist" - for a slightly less breathless piece - but the result was too boring to share with you.