Extinction and Utopia: the Future of Humanity

From OpenArt

The notion of a global "Brotherhood of Man" suggests a warm and fuzzy unity among all humans. But this is a myth: Dunbar's number indicates that humans can maintain about 150 meaningful relationships at most. Wider ‘concerns’ for ‘humanity’ are ideological not personal.

Currently, the global human population exceeds 8 billion. This large population supports global economic growth through its labour and consumption. However, as AI and robotics mature, their increased productivity eventually eliminates the economic rationale for a large human population. Elites will therefore seek to eliminate the non-elite ‘masses’ who, in their view, will become more trouble than they are worth. Since economically advanced countries are already experiencing hard-to-reverse declining total fertility rates (TFR), a massive decrease in global population may well occur automatically in a century or two. Other means are available if this is felt to be too sluggish.

The Earth's population could then stabilise in the millions, or even hundreds of thousands. The surviving elite would enjoy unprecedented levels of luxury and possibility, supported by a highly advanced AI/robotic ecosystem.

If advances in AI and robotics lead to decentralised AI systems and mass-market affordable robotics, some non-elite communities might secure a toehold in the future.

We should not be too optimistic, however. If elites control the relevant technologies, mass resistance to marginalisation is difficult - ultimately because of the military imbalance. It seems the future of humanity is already pretty clear.