An Ecologist Reflects on the Fermi Paradox

 

Via ChatGPT

To begin, consider an analogy drawn from economics:

"Economists differentiate between the short run and the long run. In the short run, a firm responds to a demand shock by adjusting its variable inputs to manage costs. In the long run, however, the firm can adjust its fixed inputs, such as capital and infrastructure, allowing for changes in its production capacity and potentially altering its overall business strategy."

This economic insight provides a useful framework for understanding both the evolution of life on Earth and the broader context of the Fermi Paradox.

Species, much like firms, operate within the constraints of their environment. Through natural selection, species evolve to optimise their fitness within these environments, allowing them to thrive over millennia, often with little genetic change. The vast complexity and diversity of life on our planet can be attributed to the dynamic interplay between species and their environments, where environmental shifts—whether gradual or catastrophic—create new niches and opportunities for biological innovation.

However, human beings represent a significant departure from this pattern. Unlike other species, which are largely at the mercy of their environments, humans have developed the unprecedented ability to reshape their surroundings through knowledge, planning, and engineering. This capability allowed us to transcend our evolutionary origins, exemplified by our landing on the moon. Despite being physically adapted to life on the African savannah, we constructed complex technologies—a kind of artificial phenotype—that enabled us to survive in the vacuum of space.

But why did we go to the moon? The answer lies not in pure rationality or intelligence but in our sub-rational biological drives. Humans, like all other organisms, are motivated by a suite of evolutionary imperatives: the need to eat, drink, and seek shelter, as well as more complex social drives such as the desire for group acceptance, prestige, security and dominance. The so-called "Space Race" was a manifestation of these drives, played out on a global scale.

This brings us to the Fermi Paradox—the apparent contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations. Many assume that the drives that propelled us to the moon will inevitably lead us to the stars, and that similar drives would motivate other intelligent species to do the same. So, where are the aliens?

The answer may lie in the long-term trajectory of civilization. Just as firms in the long run can fundamentally alter their strategies, intelligent species may evolve beyond their initial biological imperatives. For humans, the ability to engineer our environment may eventually extend to our own psyches. Once we recognize that our current drives serve primarily to optimise genetic persistence—a goal that, from a philosophical perspective, may seem shallow and unsatisfying—we might choose to re-engineer these drives.

One radical option is what we might call the "collective-suicide" scenario, where a civilization, recognizing the futility of mere biological self-reproduction, simply opts out. This echoes Albert Camus's observation in 'The Myth of Sisyphus': "There is but one truly serious philosophical problem, and that is suicide."

Yet, if we find value in subjective experiences, we might instead cultivate entirely new aesthetic drives, building environments that allow us to explore and indulge these new motivations. This brings us into the realm of speculative fiction, where authors like Iain M. Banks and Greg Egan have envisioned civilizations that have transcended their biological origins to live in virtual realities of their own making.

However, this isn’t the end of the story. A crucial drive that we may need to retain is the urge to research, engineer, and explore. Even in a future where we have transcended our biological origins, the desire for security would likely remain. A civilization that values its existence would still be concerned about external threats, whether from other species or natural cosmic events. As such, advanced civilizations might invest in powerful, discreet defences to protect themselves—defences that could be so effective as to be undetectable to us.

So, what might be out there? Perhaps, rather than sprawling interstellar empires, the galaxy is filled with highly advanced, self-contained civilizations that have chosen to retreat into their own virtual realities, leaving behind only subtle, imperceptible traces of their existence. And perhaps, just as we search the skies for signs of life, they are out there, quietly observing us, ensuring that their own carefully constructed worlds remain undisturbed.

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Note: Thanks to ChatGPT for taking my extended draft and polishing it to the text you see above.