President Trump

This morning's result confirms the overwhelming exasperation of ordinary folk with the liberal elite which has run the world so successfully over the last decades, and which continues to colonise the hectoring mainstream media (MSM).

Rod Liddle commented,

"If Trump wins, I wonder if the BBC will be as exultant as it was in 2008, when Obama won? Here’s a small bet – it won’t be. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. It’s almost worth him winning for that alone. Oh, and for the Guardian’s tears."

The Brexit dynamic now looks more assured. Rod Liddle again:

"Take Brexit. Whether you were for Remain or Leave, we are leaving and need to secure the best possible future for our country, no? The Democrats have made it absolutely clear that in trade deals we are ‘at the back of the queue’. They were vehemently opposed to Brexit, a position made clear by Hillary Clinton herself, who also opposed any independent trade deal with the UK, worried that it might have an impact upon US jobs.

"There is no such problem with Trump – who not only cheered the Brexit result but has said that a trade deal with Britain would be near the top of his agenda. Whether a Remainer or a Leaver, then, it’s clear that Trump is better for Britain."

Greg Cochran put his finger on why the polls - as for Brexit - were so consistently and spectacularly wrong (here).

"Social Desirability Bias

Posted on November 8, 2016 by gcochran9

"It must be strong today, something like 5 points.

"If so, you’ll be hearing calls for the end of the secret ballot."

Odds and Probabilities: Clinton vs. Trump

If the odds on something are b:a, then the probability is a/(a+b). Example: if the odds are 2:1, the probability is 1/3.

Here is the website oddschecker's take today on the US Presidential Election in November:

• For Hillary Clinton, the odds to win are 8:15, a probability of 15/23 = 65%
• For Donald Trump, the odds are 11:4, a probability of 4/15 = 27%.

Turning now to the British EU Referendum in late June, oddschecker has this to say:

• The odds for staying in are 4:11, a probability of 11/15 = 73%
• The odds for Brexit are 5:2, a probability of 2/7 = 29%

Never bet against the bookies. And sure as sure, these odds are not the final word.

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Read an interesting paper yesterday (h/t Marginal Revolution): ""Personality Traits and the Dimensions of Political Ideology"" (PDF). Here's a histogram showing the key finding.

This says that you incline to conservative economic political views if you are somewhat extraverted, hard-headed, conscientious, emotionally-stable and of a rather conventional and traditionalist disposition.

On the other hand, you tend to liberal economic political views if you are rather agreeable and 'open to experience'. One thinks of those pleasant, imaginative, emotional luvvies - always so keen to dispense other people's money.

I'm not sure this isn't restating the obvious as regards stereotypical voter types. Still, the sample sizes were large and all science has to start somewhere.