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Elon Musk’s vision of a self-sustaining colony on Mars as humanity’s "insurance policy" against existential threats - nuclear war included - is undeniably both sincere and super-ambitious. The "multiple baskets" strategy assumes that humanity can escape the consequences of both natural disasters and genocidal conflict by scattering across worlds. Yet it is riddled with sad ironies.
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The early days of the Mars colony would see dependence on Earth for resources, expertise, and support. In the event of a catastrophic breakdown in relations - whether through nuclear war or political strife - Mars would be viewed not as a sanctuary, but as a rogue outpost.
The first major task of a Mars colony might well be to develop defences against Earth-launched IPBMs - designed to destroy it. Sadly it won't have the home-grown tech to do that by itself.
What greater irony could there be than humanity fleeing Earth to escape annihilation, only to face it again in the skies above Mars?
The history of human expansion, whether across continents or into space, shows that our conflicts and power struggles scale alongside our technologies. The cultural, political, and psychological baggage that fuels Earthly discord would follow us there; how could Mars avoid becoming another theatre for the same destructive dynamics, albeit with red dust underfoot and a thinner atmosphere?
A Mars colony, armed with the most advanced tech of its time, might quickly replicate Earth’s adversarial tendencies on its new frontier.
Musk seeks to save humanity from itself, yet the very impulses that make this strategy seem necessary - fear, mistrust, and a penchant for conflict - could doom it. The malfunctioning dream of our red-tinged refuge testifies to our unchanging disputatious nature.
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