"Lockdown measures are increasing across China's Hubei province to try to control the spread of a new virus that has left 17 people dead. Wuhan, Hubei's capital of 11 million people where the virus first emerged, has no trains or planes in or out. At least four other provincial cities are seeing clampdowns on transport.Imagine a two-by-two matrix: one dimension is R0, the basic reproduction number; the other dimension is the survival function showing lethality. Only the square with R0 >> 1 and high lethality is a source of real concern. In that case the epidemic spreads fast and kills most of the victims.
"There are more than 500 confirmed cases of the virus, which has spread abroad, with Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam the latest affected."
One day we'll be able to model viruses and their mutation trees to determine whether there is an adjacent genotype to the day-zero virus which is much more dangerous. Today we have no idea - projections are just a matter of luck.
The current outbreak is rather benign so far.
"Most of the 17 victims were elderly and suffered from other chronic diseases including Parkinson's disease and diabetes."However, there is clearly a selective advantage to any viral-mutation which more aggressively hijacks the host's body to make more virus copies - provided it doesn't kill the host too quickly. This virus currently has a long asymptomatic period, so it seems there is space for it to transition to a more lethal variant while maintaining transmission potency. We shall see.
Wash your hands - the face-masks are far from a panacea!
