IBM's Watson system recently won a televised Jeopardy contest in the States against two human champions. This achievement has brought real-time natural language question answering to a whole new level of competence. Read my assessment at sciencefiction.com.
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We went to see Brighton Rock at the Wells Film Centre this afternoon. After a gushing interview with Helen Mirren (it was Mirren - who plays Ida - who was gushing) on Radio 4 a few weeks back, the interviewer remarked sotto voce "I found it quite uninvolving."
Graham Greene's book is action-packed and menacing. In the film this translates to 'rather slow'. Mirren is as good as she always is, but the lead character of Pinky Brown, the juvenile gangster, is played as one-dimensional menace.
In the book Pinky is a sexually-repressed and possibly homosexual sociopath, with lingering Catholic conditioning. Such psychological complexity has been lost by Director Rowan Joffe.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Seel and Porter Family Trees
The first family tree shows my parents (Fred and Beryl Seel) together with my father's siblings, parents and grandparents. Click on images to make larger.
The second family tree, below, shows my mother's siblings and her parents and grandparents.
My paternal family tree
The second family tree, below, shows my mother's siblings and her parents and grandparents.
My maternal family tree
Notice that my mother's grandparents are "on the wrong side" of the photo of her parents. Follow the surnames.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Hot Fuzz
Flipping idly between the scheduling last night we happened upon the British indie film "Hot Fuzz". Wow! It was filmed in our very own city of Wells! How we thrilled to shots of the market square, the paper shop, the co-op!
In this spoof movie Wells is fictionalised as Sandford, run covertly as a rural-fascist enclave of English pastoralism by a hooded coven of murderous local worthies (including the local police chief).
Actually Wells isn't much like that; we do, however, have our quota of unsightly beggars. In the local paper it was revealed that one lives in Weston-super-Mare but regularly travels to our beautiful city as the pickings here are so much better. So much so that he's bought a car with the proceeds to-date which eases his daily commute.
A few weeks ago, we were walking down the High Street when we passed a middle-aged woman playing the recorder execrably for donations; I squeaked less when I was eight years old at primary school. A very posh lady gave her some coins and drawled (it being cold):
"My dear, do you have somewhere to go tonight? You're not homeless, are you?"
In an equally upper-class voice, the beggar assured her that yes, she was perfectly situated for the night's lodging, but thank you so much for asking."
If that's the worst we can do, there is little need to bump them off and leave their mouldering corpses in the sewers beneath the Bishop's Palace.
In this spoof movie Wells is fictionalised as Sandford, run covertly as a rural-fascist enclave of English pastoralism by a hooded coven of murderous local worthies (including the local police chief).
Actually Wells isn't much like that; we do, however, have our quota of unsightly beggars. In the local paper it was revealed that one lives in Weston-super-Mare but regularly travels to our beautiful city as the pickings here are so much better. So much so that he's bought a car with the proceeds to-date which eases his daily commute.
A few weeks ago, we were walking down the High Street when we passed a middle-aged woman playing the recorder execrably for donations; I squeaked less when I was eight years old at primary school. A very posh lady gave her some coins and drawled (it being cold):
"My dear, do you have somewhere to go tonight? You're not homeless, are you?"
In an equally upper-class voice, the beggar assured her that yes, she was perfectly situated for the night's lodging, but thank you so much for asking."
If that's the worst we can do, there is little need to bump them off and leave their mouldering corpses in the sewers beneath the Bishop's Palace.
Friday, February 25, 2011
First Vole of 2011
This the scene as I entered the kitchen this morning.
We buy a wide variety of foods for this creature: poultry, rabbit, beef, fish ... I have never seen a packet of Prime Vole. I wonder why?
Note: please don't write and tell me: I know that cats don't buy cat food.
We buy a wide variety of foods for this creature: poultry, rabbit, beef, fish ... I have never seen a packet of Prime Vole. I wonder why?
Note: please don't write and tell me: I know that cats don't buy cat food.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
A Walk around Wookey
This afternoon a pleasant stroll south of Wookey.
As we worry about extracting British oil workers from the Libyan desert, it's tempting to think that a nearby carrier would come in handy (we won't have any soon). Trouble is, they take an age to get there, and against any hostile power more ept than Libya is right now, you need a full battle-group to protect it. That costs. And right now we have Malta.
What you really want for this kind of operation are Chinooks for the extraction and fighter aircraft or drones for close-in air support. I would hope, BTW, that the skies above Tripoli are currently black with Predators. If Gaddafi shows himself, a hellfire missile launch would be awfully tempting. Would save God knows how many lives.
Camping in February, hens and all
Clare checks the hills
Your humble correspondent
Ben Knowle Hill from the SE
As we worry about extracting British oil workers from the Libyan desert, it's tempting to think that a nearby carrier would come in handy (we won't have any soon). Trouble is, they take an age to get there, and against any hostile power more ept than Libya is right now, you need a full battle-group to protect it. That costs. And right now we have Malta.
What you really want for this kind of operation are Chinooks for the extraction and fighter aircraft or drones for close-in air support. I would hope, BTW, that the skies above Tripoli are currently black with Predators. If Gaddafi shows himself, a hellfire missile launch would be awfully tempting. Would save God knows how many lives.
Previsions of Hell
I'm currently reading The Brothers Karamazov, where there is much angst-driven discussion between two of the brother, the atheist Ivan K. and monk Alyosha K. on how to reconcile cruelty and suffering on earth with the injunctions of Christianity to forgive all. This set me imagining the following discussion with a fundamentalist priest (we have such here in Wells).
___
"Do you believe that terrorists such as Al Qaeda bombers will go to Hell?"
"Yes, they certainly will."
"And do you believe that they will suffer there eternal torments?"
"Such is stated in The Bible, the Word of God."
"And will such torments be worse than waterboarding?"
"We cannot know, but the fire is surely worse than we can imagine."
"So it cannot be wrong for the Americans to subject such a one, destined for Hell, to a little preliminary torment, especially where it's in a good cause - information to help preserve the innocent?"
"Such torture is evil and morally unjustifiable. The Church condemns it."
___
OK. Got that then.
___
"Do you believe that terrorists such as Al Qaeda bombers will go to Hell?"
"Yes, they certainly will."
"And do you believe that they will suffer there eternal torments?"
"Such is stated in The Bible, the Word of God."
"And will such torments be worse than waterboarding?"
"We cannot know, but the fire is surely worse than we can imagine."
"So it cannot be wrong for the Americans to subject such a one, destined for Hell, to a little preliminary torment, especially where it's in a good cause - information to help preserve the innocent?"
"Such torture is evil and morally unjustifiable. The Church condemns it."
___
OK. Got that then.
Mobile Network Operators ponder WiFi
The recent explosion in smartphone usage has created a major dilemma for mobile network operators (MNOs). Not only do smartphones drive huge increments of broadband demand, they also come with built-in WiFi creating an expectation that the network operator should provide ubiquitous WiFi hotspot coverage wherever the customer feels the need for it.
In response, O2 recently announced it was setting up a nationwide free WiFi broadband network to compete with BT and The Cloud. This is clearly intended to address the increasing demand for mobile broadband access to services such as Facebook, YouTube and video calling, some of which in any case only work over WiFi in the current generation of handset.
O2’s new network will not be ubiquitous, far from it. The plan is to work with partner restaurants, shops and high street retailers across the UK. Nor are O2 planning a massive capital investment: their strategy appears more focused on a tactical choice of locations and ensuring good-quality service where their revenues opportunities are maximised. The issues however are complex.
1. The Business Model. It has proved difficult signing customers up to a public WiFi hotspot service which is subscription based. Part of the problem is a disinclination to pay for episodic use in advance; a deeper problem is that business demand is more robust and there is a greater willingness to pay; a lower consumer tariff would undermine business revenues and an effective market segmentation strategy has proved hard to find. On the other hand, advertisement-funded, "free at the point of use" models have foundered on low rates. At the moment, a bundled strategy seems most appropriate, which really means some form of cross-subsidy.
2. Network Deployment. Where should WiFi Access Points be placed? Public locations such as lamp posts require complex liaison with Councils and incur extra obligations and costs. Interior locations such as restaurants and coffee shops are an order of magnitude cheaper but cannot meet all the coverage requirements. Residential solutions such as BT FON tend to be in the wrong place.
3. WiFi vs. 3G/4G. The costs associated with WiFi do not scale well with increasing coverage. This is due primarily to the low power constraint on transceivers, the high frequency and the limited number of channels. The selective deployment of 3G picocells/femtocells has always seemed an attractive alternative to mobile operators, although WiFi will always be part of the mix. Future strategies are made more complex by the superior performance of LTE, to be deployed in a few years time in the UK.
Most mobile operators believe that WiFi is fundamentally a distraction - the 3G/4G technology roadmap is already sufficiently complex! However, given the lack of an affordable, small-scale, high-bandwidth solution within the cellular stable, WiFi it has to be. In any case, the handset suppliers, Apple in particular, have forced their hand. So expect the MNOs to cherry-pick the highest-value locations with their own WiFi hotspots (as O2 is doing) and/or to make the necessary deals with existing public hotspot providers. Their true strategy still lies with 3G to 4G evolution (using LTE) together with tactical picocells and femtocells. However, with WiFi hegemonic in offices and in the home, the uneasy coexistence of cellular with WiFi looks set to be with us for the duration.
Note: the battle between LTE and WiMAX seems to have been well and truly won by LTE, WiMAX having been consigned to developing country ghettos. This says more about the market dominance of the MNOs and the cosy relationships with their suppliers than about cost or technology, in both of which (mobile) WiMAX seems to have had the edge.
In response, O2 recently announced it was setting up a nationwide free WiFi broadband network to compete with BT and The Cloud. This is clearly intended to address the increasing demand for mobile broadband access to services such as Facebook, YouTube and video calling, some of which in any case only work over WiFi in the current generation of handset.
O2’s new network will not be ubiquitous, far from it. The plan is to work with partner restaurants, shops and high street retailers across the UK. Nor are O2 planning a massive capital investment: their strategy appears more focused on a tactical choice of locations and ensuring good-quality service where their revenues opportunities are maximised. The issues however are complex.
1. The Business Model. It has proved difficult signing customers up to a public WiFi hotspot service which is subscription based. Part of the problem is a disinclination to pay for episodic use in advance; a deeper problem is that business demand is more robust and there is a greater willingness to pay; a lower consumer tariff would undermine business revenues and an effective market segmentation strategy has proved hard to find. On the other hand, advertisement-funded, "free at the point of use" models have foundered on low rates. At the moment, a bundled strategy seems most appropriate, which really means some form of cross-subsidy.
2. Network Deployment. Where should WiFi Access Points be placed? Public locations such as lamp posts require complex liaison with Councils and incur extra obligations and costs. Interior locations such as restaurants and coffee shops are an order of magnitude cheaper but cannot meet all the coverage requirements. Residential solutions such as BT FON tend to be in the wrong place.
3. WiFi vs. 3G/4G. The costs associated with WiFi do not scale well with increasing coverage. This is due primarily to the low power constraint on transceivers, the high frequency and the limited number of channels. The selective deployment of 3G picocells/femtocells has always seemed an attractive alternative to mobile operators, although WiFi will always be part of the mix. Future strategies are made more complex by the superior performance of LTE, to be deployed in a few years time in the UK.
Most mobile operators believe that WiFi is fundamentally a distraction - the 3G/4G technology roadmap is already sufficiently complex! However, given the lack of an affordable, small-scale, high-bandwidth solution within the cellular stable, WiFi it has to be. In any case, the handset suppliers, Apple in particular, have forced their hand. So expect the MNOs to cherry-pick the highest-value locations with their own WiFi hotspots (as O2 is doing) and/or to make the necessary deals with existing public hotspot providers. Their true strategy still lies with 3G to 4G evolution (using LTE) together with tactical picocells and femtocells. However, with WiFi hegemonic in offices and in the home, the uneasy coexistence of cellular with WiFi looks set to be with us for the duration.
Note: the battle between LTE and WiMAX seems to have been well and truly won by LTE, WiMAX having been consigned to developing country ghettos. This says more about the market dominance of the MNOs and the cosy relationships with their suppliers than about cost or technology, in both of which (mobile) WiMAX seems to have had the edge.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Book Review: "Deep State" by Walter Jon Williams
This techno-thriller is about a popular revolution in an Islamic country, aided by all the resources of modern hi-tech comms. How likely is that?
Read my review here at sciencefiction.com.
Read my review here at sciencefiction.com.
True Grit (film review)
To Bristol and the Cribbs Causeway Vue this afternoon to see the Coen Brothers latest, "True Grit". Matt Damon's acting talents were on display as we failed to recognise him as Jason Bourne. In any event, as Texas Ranger LaBoeuf (pronounced cringingly as "La-Beef"), he's a less than sure shot with his Sharps rifle.
Actually it's a great film with a strong moral centre and dialogue as sharp as the rifle. To be honest I was struggling a bit to follow the conversations: Jeff Bridges (Rooster Cogburn) is so laconic that he's capable of sucking a whole sentence into his beard. Still, the stuff I could make out was witty, deadpan and amusing. The Coen brothers have caught a rather polite, mannered mode of address which is enchantingly strange from the lips of uneducated roughnecks (Mattie excepted).
Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross, the 14 year old heroine, is clearly a star in the making. This is presumably why her name is omitted from the poster.
Actually it's a great film with a strong moral centre and dialogue as sharp as the rifle. To be honest I was struggling a bit to follow the conversations: Jeff Bridges (Rooster Cogburn) is so laconic that he's capable of sucking a whole sentence into his beard. Still, the stuff I could make out was witty, deadpan and amusing. The Coen brothers have caught a rather polite, mannered mode of address which is enchantingly strange from the lips of uneducated roughnecks (Mattie excepted).
Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross, the 14 year old heroine, is clearly a star in the making. This is presumably why her name is omitted from the poster.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Dealing with inflation
Click the picture to make it larger; Clare pictured on our walk out this afternoon.
The mechanism by which interest rate rises dampen inflation is through cutting household demand. Most households have debts: mortgages, credit cards, loans; or they wish to borrow to fund future purchases. As repayment costs increase less money is available for household purchases while some future loans become too expensive and so are never applied for.
In any event, demand is decreased and suppliers end up with excess stocks. They have to reduce their prices to the new market-clearing level (taking a hit on their profit margins in the short term) and price-inflation is thereby reduced.
According to BBC's Newsnight a few days ago, of the current 4% inflation rate around 2% is UK domestic while the rest reflects the VAT increase (which will drop out in a year), rising world commodity prices and rising imports prices due to the weak pound. The Bank of England could get inflation back to its target of 2% if it really wanted to, just by bearing down savagely on the domestic side of inflation (that significant interest rate rise again).
It won't though. An increased bank rate has other consequences: in particular it increases the cost of borrowing for companies, raising their internal project costs. This hits at their expansion plans and so delays recovery. There's also the downward pressure on profits already mentioned which also tends to drive away investment.
In short, the BoE should tough it out and wait until/if there are genuine signs of domestic inflation getting out of control. If their nerve holds, inflation should drop back to target within 12-18 months and we will still be best placed for recovery.
The mechanism by which interest rate rises dampen inflation is through cutting household demand. Most households have debts: mortgages, credit cards, loans; or they wish to borrow to fund future purchases. As repayment costs increase less money is available for household purchases while some future loans become too expensive and so are never applied for.
In any event, demand is decreased and suppliers end up with excess stocks. They have to reduce their prices to the new market-clearing level (taking a hit on their profit margins in the short term) and price-inflation is thereby reduced.
According to BBC's Newsnight a few days ago, of the current 4% inflation rate around 2% is UK domestic while the rest reflects the VAT increase (which will drop out in a year), rising world commodity prices and rising imports prices due to the weak pound. The Bank of England could get inflation back to its target of 2% if it really wanted to, just by bearing down savagely on the domestic side of inflation (that significant interest rate rise again).
It won't though. An increased bank rate has other consequences: in particular it increases the cost of borrowing for companies, raising their internal project costs. This hits at their expansion plans and so delays recovery. There's also the downward pressure on profits already mentioned which also tends to drive away investment.
In short, the BoE should tough it out and wait until/if there are genuine signs of domestic inflation getting out of control. If their nerve holds, inflation should drop back to target within 12-18 months and we will still be best placed for recovery.
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