Saturday, November 29, 2008

Goodworth Clatford

Continuing the ISTJ strand of this diary (see here), we drove to the parking space at the junction of the Romsey and Winchester Roads (just to the south-east of Andover) to take a walk by the Anton river this lunchtime.


A footbridge over the river Anton

The car had told us it was 3°C. Undaunted we crossed the Romsey road and walked down the grass trail towards the river. As my ears began to freeze, I made a note to myself to get a spare scarf and make it into a cap-comforter for any future winter walks. Clare suggested that in this case I would be going for walks by myself.

Turning left at the bottom we walked past the Sewage Works (malodorous and looking like a building site) and turned right through a small copse to the footbridge over the river Anton (pictured above).

Clare well-wrapped-up against the cold

Here's Clare, seemingly oblivious to the restful vista of the gentle, laminar flow of the cold river.

We then walked back towards Goodworth Clatford (best-kept village in Hampshire, 1992, I thought I saw) along the track pictured below.

A country track

Back in the car, after an hour and twenty minutes, Clare reckoned what we each needed was a refreshing, warming cup of cocoa, so we detoured back via the Co-Op with the result pictured below.

Hmmm ... Cocoa!

Friday, November 28, 2008

My DNA lineages - from Oxford Ancestors

I had my Mitochondrial (maternal line) and Y-chromosome (paternal line) DNA analysed by Oxford Ancestors (OA) some while ago.

Here are the results (click on any of the images to make them bigger and more readable):
  • mtDNA = haplogroup H -- which OA call 'Helena'
  • Y-chromosome gene group = R1b -- which OA call 'Oisin'.

    Maternal Line - Helena


    As mentioned in the previous post, I'm most likely Celtic on both sides. On my mother's side, I think the 'Helena' story is reasonably secure. The 'Helena' clan were the original Celtic inhabitants of Britain after the last ice age.

    We now look to the paternal side.

    Paternal Line - Oisin


    In Bryan Sykes' book, "Saxons, Vikings, and Celts: The Genetic Roots of Britain and Ireland" he's more specific about how the 'Oisin' clan got to England. He says we were 'descended from Iberian fishermen who migrated to Britain between 4,000 and 5,000 BC' and that we 'Oisins' are 'now considered the UK's indigenous inhabitants'.

    Oxford Ancestors provided an overall classification chart, shown below.


    suggesting that if you were 'Oisin' and lived in England, then there was a 75% likelihood you were Celtic. (Obviously there were also Anglo-Saxons and Danish Vikings who were also part of the 'Oisin' clan - it would need a more refined analysis of genetic markers to distinguish those from the indigenous British 'Oisin' Celts). So that's the slightly more tentative basis of a Celtic ancestry on my father's side too.

    How did we get here? Take a look at the two following 'out-of-Africa' migration maps. As before, click on a map to make it larger.

    Migration of maternal clans


    Migration of paternal clans

    For close relatives, the paternal story applies to my father, brother and sister, and two sons. Also my brother's sons.

    The maternal story applies to my mother, brother and sister. Also my sister's daughters and son.

    My own sons get their MtDNA from Clare, who is Irish - and we believe thoroughly Celtic - on her mother's side).

    Next Post: the Origins of the British

    Previous Post: the language of my ancestors

    The language of my ancestors

    My 'Y-chromosome' male lineage and my MtDNA female lineage both signal celtic ancestry back to the original inhabitants of Britain. (As distinct from Anglo-Saxon, Viking, Norman, Roman or anything even more exotic).

    My ancestors spoke the language which has now become Welsh. I speak English, an Anglo-Saxon invader language, because the celtic Britons of western England were defeated and assimilated. Perhaps it's time to look again at the language of my ancestors? - As I write, I have in front of me the book 'Speak Welsh' that I bought ages ago.

    It reminds me of the American gibe about the second world war: "We're the reason you guys aren't speaking German."

    The response is that you Americans are speaking German, a descendant of one of the Saxon Germanic languages spoken there in the dark ages. If the Britons had won, Americans would be speaking Welsh.

    Next post: results of my DNA testing from Oxford Ancestors

    Thursday, November 27, 2008

    Review: Four Christmases

    A trip yesterday evening to the 6.30 showing of "Four Christmases" at the Andover cinema. The theatre was almost completely full - Wednesday is cheap night, but that may not be the entire explanation - and the audience 95% young female for this romantic comedy.

    Plot summary (from Wikipedia). Not really spoilers as there is little suspense.

    "No one more enjoys the holidays than Brad (Vince Vaughn) and Kate (Reese Witherspoon).

    Every December 25th, this happily unmarried, upscale San Francisco couple embark on a holiday tradition they have shared every year since they met-ditching their crazy familes for a relaxing, fun-filled vacation in some sunny exotic locale. There, slipping margaritas by the pool, they toast the season, knowing they once again avoided the chaos and emotional fallout of their four respective households: divorced parents, squabbling siblings, out-of-control kids and all the simmering resentments and awkward moments that are the hallmarks of every family Christmas.

    But not this year. Shorts and sunglasses packed, Brad and Kate are trapped at the San Francisco airport by a fogbank that cancels every outbound flight. Worse yet, they are caught on camera by a local news crew, revealing their whereabouts to the whole city... and to their families. With no escape and no excuses, they are now expected home by Brad's Father (Robert Duvall) and Kate's mother (Mary Steenburgen). And Brad's mother (Sissy Spacek) And Kate's father (Jon Voight).

    Four Christmases in one day.

    As they brace themselves for a marathon of homecomings, Brad and Kate expect the worst-and that's exactly what they get. But as Brad counts down the minutes to their freedom, Kate surprisingly finds herself tuned to the ticking of a different clock. At the end of the day, each will gain a new perspective on where they came from... and where they're going. Getting to know themselves and each other as they really are could finally give them a chance at the kind of love they've only been playing at."

    Clare reckoned it was thin gruel, but I did catch her laughing out loud more than a few times. There was a particularly amusing serial gag of various babies projectile-vomiting over the unfortunate Kate (I guess you had to be there).

    Wednesday, November 26, 2008

    Einstein and Eddington?

    My brother, Adrian, emailed me, noting no review of the BBC-2 play last Saturday.

    I replied as follows:

    "On the Einstein and Eddington thing, yes, I thought about reviewing it but I just couldn't summon up the energy. I've somehow lost track of the rules about historically-based dramas - the extent to which you can distort history and just make stuff up. There were so many inaccuracies I DID know about (may I mention the missing Marcel Grossman?) that I just got very suspicious of all the other stuff.

    Otherwise it passed the time agreeably enough and Tennant is a fine actor."

    Tuesday, November 25, 2008

    The Typealyzer

    Typealyzer, a site mentioned by BackReaction here, claims to work out your (Myers-Briggs) personality type from your blog.

    I entered the URL of this blog and out popped (the accurate) INTP. Is that amazing or what?

    Obviously no-one who writes a blog is now safe!

    _____
    UPDATE: I typed in my blog URL again to show Clare, and this time it came back with INTJ!

    Why the change? My hypothesis is that the system is only looking at the most recent post (namely it's now looking at this one!). To explore further I typed into Typealyzer a very different URL (here) -a post where I described - with photos - a country walk we did a few days back. This time my blog was ISTJ!

    So the orginal INTP was for my previous post to this one, which was a long, theoretical article about agent theory. I suppose I should have guessed that there was really very little magic involved with Typealyzer ...

    Monday, November 24, 2008

    The Deception Theorem

    The following describes something I believe to be correct, but would need some work to make really rigorous.

    “The Deception Theorem states that a First-Order Intentional Agent can never know it has been deceived. First we explain the theorem, then we sketch the proof.”

    “What’s an Intentional Agent?”

    “Put simply, it’s an entity which we can describe in terms of its 'beliefs' and ‘wants’. So when we see an ant dragging a dead aphid back to the nest, we can say that the ant believes that the aphid is a useful ant-resource (food), and wants to get it back to the nest.

    "A First Order Intentional Agent - call it a FOIA – is an agent which may be accurately described in terms of its beliefs and wants. What makes it first-order is that the FOIA doesn’t itself take account of any beliefs and wants of intentional agents in its environment. Specifically, an ant doesn’t operate as if it thought that you had any beliefs and/or wants relevant to it. Of course, it could be mistaken about that.”

    “So you’re saying insects are FOIAs? What about higher animals, mammals for example?”

    “Well, humans are certainly capable of a “theory of mind” – the recognition that other entities out there have points of view (another way of expressing beliefs and wants). People with autism perhaps excepted. I think most of us assume that cats and dogs, for example, operate as if they believe we have beliefs and goals they can manipulate. Hard proof is more difficult!”

    “OK, so perhaps now you could define ‘deceive’?

    “Right. First we define a Higher-Order Intentional Agent (HOIA). This, as you would suspect, is an entity which can indeed ascribe to other entities beliefs and wants, and which can actively work to alter them.

    "Naturally in order to be a deceiver, you have to be a HOIA - a FOIA can’t deceive as it has no concept that other entities have opinions in the first place, so it can’t conceive of manipulating them.

    "So if X is a HOIA and Y is any kind of intentional agent, we say as a definition:

    X deceives Y if:


    1. Y doesn’t believe something (at some point in time)

    2. X wants Y to come to believe that something, even though it isn’t true

    3. X executes a plan by which Y comes to believe that thing, even though it isn’t true.
    Y has now been deceived.

    We can say it more clearly in symbols.

    X deceives Y iff


    1. ~B(Y, φ) and

    2. W(X,◊[B(Y, φ) and ~ φ]) and

    3. Executes(X, plan(B, φ)) → ◊[B(Y, φ) and ~ φ].
    where B=Believes, W=Wants, ◊ = eventually, φ is the false belief. The purpose of X executing the plan is to generate a set of sensory impressions in Y so that Y comes to update its beliefs (falsely) in the way X intended.

    Now we can sketch the proof of the Deception Theorem. We suppose that the deceived agent, Y is a FOIA.

    1. The FOIA Y believes it is surrounded by objects which behave in essentially self-contained, purely reactive ways. Note that we’re talking about intrinsic behaviour here. If an ant kicks a stone, the direction it moves clearly depends on the ant's opinion as to where the stone should go. But the stone’s behaviour is not caused by the ant’s opinion per se, but by its foot: a well-defined reaction out of physics.

    In more technical language, Y has a non-intentional understanding of its external environment.

    2. Now Y can certainly make mistakes – it has limited perception, after all. If its subsequent perception indicate it has misread a situation, and fallen into error, it will experience cognitive dissonance. For example, the ant drags the fly but an unobserved sharp stone snags it and drags it out of the ant’s grasp. What a surprise!

    In such a situation Y will apply whatever repair mechanism its design specifies: could be repetition, random behaviour, avoidance or something else. Whatever the mechanism, the design intent is to get back on track to securing whatever is now Y’s primary ‘want’.

    3. Assume X now tries to deceive Y. The mechanism of deception – according to our definition above - is to provide sensory input which generates belief change in Y in a false direction. It may or may not work, but if it does, to realise you have been fooled you have to accept that there is some agent out there fitting the definition of an agent of deception above.

    Specifically, Y has to come to believe that there is a X such that:

    X wants Y to come to believe something even though it isn’t true, i.e.

    ∃X.W(X,◊[B(Y, φ) and ~ φ])

    "This is a statement of higher-order intentionality, which a FOIA – by definition – cannot conceptualise.

    4. So a First-Order Intentional Agent can never know it has been deceived. QED.”

    “Can you give me an example?”

    “Consider a simple wasp trap: a jam bottle with a little jam and water in the bottom, and a small hole in the lid. This contraption sends a signal to the wasp 'there’s good food here which is safely obtainable'. The wasps follow the odour trail into the bottle, but can never get out. They drown, deceived, but never know that they have been deceived."

    "Well, that's maybe not very convincing. No-one thinks wasps are particularly smart anyhow.”

    “They've managed to get by for two hundred million years so they obviously know something. But as another example, you could equally deduce that an autistic person can’t tell when they’re being deceived. Is that a big enough deal for you?”

    ---

    Professor Michael Wooldridge at Liverpool University is a leader in agent theory here in the UK. For more, see his website here.

    ---

    NOTE: if you got this far, you may believe the result to be quite trivial. I partially agree with you, although I would claim in defence that the sight-seeing during the journey more than makes up for the attractions of the final destination.

    The motivation for writing it is that I need this result for a plot device in my current fiction writing here.

    Saturday, November 22, 2008

    South of Monxton

    We drove down to Monxton, a couple of miles south-west of Andover this afternoon for a country walk. We took the track called Hook Lane which runs between fields down to the railway. On the right we saw a beautiful tree, standing by itself in a field marked with those chalk fragments which intermix with the soil around here.

    Sarson Wood from Hook Lane

    As we turned around, Clare saw this pigeon lying dead in the leaves at the edge of the track. It seemed a recent casualty from the flocks wheeling and screeching a few hundred feet overhead.

    Recently-deceased pigeon

    We crossed the main Salisbury-London railway track and turned onto a new track called Dunkirt Lane. The sun was now behind us, but the arctic wind continued to fight its way through our layered, but merely autumnal clothing.

    Dunkirt Lane, looking west

    Finally we gained the Abbotts Ann to Monxton road, crossing over the railway bridge (pictured below) where I disturbed several enormous, overfed bunnies as I manoeuvered to get the picture below.

    The London-Salisbury main railway -looking west

    Took us a couple of hours.

    Total Eclipse

    Is it just me who thinks this ad is absolutely brilliant?



    Sorry about the product placement in the final frames ...

    Thursday, November 20, 2008

    New Scientist unsaveable?

    In September 2006 SF writer Greg Egan (Quarantine, Permutation City, etc) wrote the piece here questioning whether New Scientist's descent into shoddy, tabloid reporting could possibly be arrested. Given the size of its readership, he argued that it was in the interests of all scientifically-literate individuals to push, at this last ditch, for a change in course. Of course, nothing whatsoever happened.

    The New Scientist of today - fashionably-green, woolly-minded, sensationalist, muddled, politically-correct, contemptuous of the educated portion of its readership, missioned to increase sales at any price rather than understanding - is far removed from the Reithian journal of my youth. On almost a weekly basis I ask myself whether my subscription should get junked this time around or not.

    At time of writing, renewal chances are not good, particularly after reading the gibberish of the cover story this week: 'Time Wars'.