"Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century,” he said. [Daily Telegraph].I heard him on PM yesterday evening. He reckons 60-70% of the UK population will eventually get it, of whom 1% will die; big error bars for the next three weeks. Given asymptomatic transmission with R0 2-3 it can't be kept out or contained within the UK over any extended period. Especially when it goes exponential in countries outside of China.
From Le Monde: (Practise your French) :
"selon une modélisation, un groupe de trois Etats se situe dans le trio de tête des pays les plus menacés par une arrivée du virus : l’Egypte, l’Algérie et l’Afrique du Sud. Ils sont suivis d’un second groupe constitué, lui, du Nigeria et de l’Ethiopie."Lots of links between China and Africa. Public health screening and treatment not brilliant in the latter.
UK risks: (i) breakdowns in the supply chain May/June when the pandemic really takes hold here; (ii) personal incapacity and/or need to self-quarantine.
What can you do?
- Shop now for cans of soup, long-life milk, dried fruits and cereals, sanitary items; face-masks (they won't look so ridiculous soon).
- Check out your camping cooker.
- Petrol in the car - don't forget the car can charge mobile phones.
Buy stuff you'll be able to consume after the pandemic so you're not wasting money.
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The Mormons famously have a survivalist level of supplies, c. six months. But 2-4 weeks should do it - you can always go half-rations.
I always think the best time to panic-buy is before other people realise they have to.
Note
Best estimate of case doubling time at present seems to be 7 days. If, by the end of February, there were 16 invisible cases in the UK, time to one million is (sixteen doublings) = 16 weeks = four months.
It won't seem a major problem here before Easter is my prediction (note big error bars!).
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Update (13/2/20): I today cancelled our June holiday in Crete. The call-centre operative seemed unsurprised when I mentioned COVID-19. We have, however, been hit by a stinging cancellation fee, the entire deposit, 20% of the overall cost.
I'm thinking this summer is going to be disastrous for the holiday companies and for travel insurers.
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Update: If you have a VPN into the UK it is educational to watch this:
"Hannah Fry leads a nationwide experiment to help plan for the next deadly flu pandemic, which could happen at any time. How many will it kill? What can we do about it?"The BBC/Cambridge model parameters are basically spot-on for Covid-19 (R0=1.8; lethality=2%).
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Update (14/2/20): My brother wrote to me and observed:
"I would take issue with one of your precautions: Don’t waste time and (increasingly large amounts of) money on surgical (or most other types of) masks. Even the better ones have an interweave gap some three times larger than the virus and invariably get damp, increasing the stickability.---
Leave your eyes, nose and mouth open to the world, just don’t touch them without washing/gelling hands (as frequently as possible)."
