The Future of the British Military: (Gemini)

From OpenArt

Introduction

The British military stands at a crossroads. Traditional threats are evolving, and the rise of unconventional warfare and technological advancements necessitate a re-evaluation of defence strategy. This post explores the potential of a special forces-centric army and the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in shaping the future force structure, while acknowledging the importance of maintaining a balanced approach in light of the UK's likely threat portfolio.

The Allure of Special Forces and Rethinking Traditional Forces

A special forces-centric army offers undeniable advantages. Special forces units are agile, adaptable, and adept at unconventional warfare, counter-terrorism, and surgical strikes – all crucial capabilities in the contemporary security landscape.  The resulting smaller force structure could minimise casualties, logistical burdens, and overall costs. However, this approach presents limitations. Special forces are not designed for large-scale, state-on-state warfare.  Furthermore, recruiting and training these elite units is expensive and resource-intensive, requiring a large, trained mass of soldiers as a recruiting pool.

The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force (RAF) would also require adjustments to support a special forces-centric model. The Navy might transition to smaller, more agile vessels for troop insertion and support, while the RAF would likely prioritise airlift/insertion capabilities and specialised attack aircraft.

The affordability of a special forces-centric force hinges on a careful analysis of offsetting costs. Possible reductions in overall manpower, base upkeep, and traditional weaponry might balance the increased expenditure on special operations capabilities.  Recruitment would target demographics drawn to the prestige of special forces, though potentially limiting the pool of qualified candidates.

While special forces offer a compelling vision for the future, the inclusion of powerful state actors like Russia as potential adversaries complicates the equation. Special forces are ill-equipped to counter a full-scale invasion or hold territory in a conventional war. A more balanced approach that leverages special forces' strengths while maintaining a credible conventional deterrent through investment in essential areas like armour and air defence might be more prudent.

Meanwhile, AI should be considered a teammate, not a replacement. The potential of AI-powered smart machines to revolutionise warfare is undeniable. However, entirely replacing a mass army with autonomous systems within the next 3-5 years is unrealistic. AI technology for complex military tasks is still under development, and the UK's diverse threat landscape necessitates a nuanced approach. AI may excel in specific areas but it can't  replace the human element entirely or en masse.

The focus should be on integrating AI for tasks like logistics, intelligence analysis, and unmanned vehicle operation, freeing up human soldiers for critical decision-making and adaptation –  essential for navigating the UK's evolving security landscape.

Conclusion

While a special forces-centric model offers agility and effectiveness, it must be weighed against the need for a credible conventional deterrent. AI integration offers significant potential, but it can only complement, not replace, human soldiers.

As regards manpower, a hybrid approach combining a core special forces unit with a lean conventional force might be most suitable. This would likely result in a smaller overall manpower requirement compared to a traditional mass army.

Freed-up resources from a smaller force could then be directed towards special operations capabilities, AI integration, and maintaining essential conventional elements. There's no one-size-fits-all solution, but it's generally suggested developed nations allocate at minimum 2-3% of GDP to defence spending, following a thorough strategic review.

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I would add that voluntary national service, including into such units as the Territorial SAS/SBS would enlarge the funnel of qualified recruits that the above force architecture requires.

Services I wish I could buy: Vengeance Ltd

It was a slow day
And the sun was beating
On the soldiers by the side of the road
There was a bright light
A shattering of shop windows
The bomb in the baby carriage
Was wired to the radio

.. and there again ..

A man walks down the street
It's a street in a strange world
Maybe it's the Third World
Maybe it's his first time around
He doesn't speak the language
He holds no currency
He is a foreign man.

We all like travelling in foreign parts, but let's face it, some of them are pretty dire.

Not all of us can afford, or would want to be accompanied by, a phalanx of bodyguards. So let's think about this: why would some random bad guys in a bad part of the world not want to rob you and leave you for dead?

If they could.

I think what might stop them is fear of retribution, so let's give them some good reasons.

Vengeance Ltd recruits former special forces and top operational support guys. As a client, you are required to carry at all times audio/video sensors plus GPS tracker. All this stuff is linked in real time to their HQ.

You also wear a somewhat conspicuous "V" badge and carry a Vengeance Ltd laminated card. They want the bad guys to know you're a client.

If the worst happens, there's not much they can do in medias res. They're not bodyguards.

Vengeance Ltd - helping out with your perfect holiday

The clue is in the name. They will relentlessly hunt down and bring terminal retribution to your assailants. They do not give up. The few times they had to do this were quite well-publicised: they have a good rep.

I think you would feel quite protected - and as a volume business, their rates are quite affordable.

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Did I mention the heart-rate monitor? It can be quite difficult, instrumentation-wise, to distinguish between a holdup and an episode of passion. That's when they need to cross-check the video feed. They say it's all done by a real smart AI ... so no worries then.

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For experts, this is an example of bourgeois commodification of pre-capitalist naturalistic social relations. Or in English, everyone used to belong to a clan or a tribe. If someone did you harm, your kinfolk would serve out retribution.

But for capitalism to work properly, we had to dispense with the clans ...

"No Ordinary Life" by Peter Stokes

From the Amazon blurb.

"The true story of a father who, on his death bed, handed his son a dusty journal containing details of his secret past as a Second World War hero and founding member of the 2nd SAS. Just weeks prior to his death Horace Stokes asked his son Peter to return home as he had 'something important' to leave him, and presented him with a battered diary.

"Peter, himself a decorated military officer, said: "He wanted me to come home so that he could talk to me about his life growing up in the shadow of war and also about his part in some of the most famous raids during the Second World War; throughout his life he'd never revealed these secrets”. His secret journal, published now as a book, recalls daring missions behind enemy lines in France, the Mediterranean and Italy. It also documents his capture, escape and recapture in Italy and Germany.

"Stokey, as he was known to his war-time comrades, served with 12 Commando, the Small Scale Raiding Force and the SAS. This book tells the story of a modest man who epitomised a generation now nearly all gone, someone who lived no ordinary life."

Sometimes a personality-type leaps off the page. I have read several books by special forces people and they uniformly come across as practical, no-nonsense, self-starting, mission-oriented and lacking empathy. Touchy-feely folk they are not.

Ho-hum: no surprise. You would expect low openness, high conscientiousness, high extraversion, low agreeableness and very low neuroticism. And that's what you get.

This short book itself is a real page turner. Young Horace grew up in the 1920s, dirt-poor, in a flea-ridden Birmingham tenement. Bright enough to go to grammar school, he's soon working as a greengrocer's assistant to help make ends meet. The war rescues him and makes him a commando. Epic deeds follow as our hero raids France, invades North Africa and parachutes into Italy, causing mayhem wherever he goes.

At one point in northern Italy, having sustained a rupture after a parachute landing gone wrong, he ends up with "really bad boils in my groin which were going septic and I had also developed scabies." He continues, "It was clear to all of us that I was struggling."

Yep.

He is so bad that his comrades have to leave him, miles inside German-occupied Italy. So he steals a bike and cycles by himself 230 km to the Vatican City in Rome (4-5 days) - which of course he succeeds in reaching - where just in time he gets life-saving medical treatment. After some months fomenting local subversion he is captured and tortured by the Gestapo.

Post-war and demobbed, Stokes drifts from one job to another: a confirmed socialist, he appears to have had a problem with mediocre authority. Eventually he becomes a publican and that seems to work for him - he later became chair of the Birmingham licencees union. 

Stokes senior died in 1986.
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Thanks to Adrian for this gift.