No Business Case for a Moon Colony, But America Should Still Go For It
There is no compelling business case for a permanent Moon colony - private corporations won't pioneer the way.
Tourism? The Moon is not a holiday destination. It is a hostile industrial environment involving radiation, dust, confinement and a three-day journey each way. Orbital hotels around Earth would be easier, safer and cheaper for a very long time - whether enough customers are willing to pay for weightlessness and nausea remains to be seen.
Mining? The Moon contains useful materials, but so does Earth. Most lunar mining proposals require demand from a future space economy that at best will be generations in the making.
Instead, consider Antarctica.
Antarctica is accessible - people do actually live there. There are airfields, research stations and supply chains. Yet there are no cities, no normal economy and no self-sustaining settlements.
The Moon will turn out to be much the same: a place for scientists, engineers, the military and government-funded installations. Antarctica with lower gravity and no air.
So why go?
Suppose China establishes a permanent lunar presence and the United States does not. China gains decades of experience operating people, machinery, communications and logistics beyond Earth. It develops procedures, institutions and technical standards. It learns what works and what doesn't.
Modern military power depends on communications, surveillance, navigation, logistics and industrial capacity. A nation that routinely operates thousands of kilometres beyond Earth acquires capabilities that can't be learned from simulations and clever strategy documents. It also acquires prestige, which is simply another form of power.
Apollo proved that Americans could reach the Moon. It demonstrated a capability but did not create an embedded capability. Artemis may be founded on the belief that the rest of the economy has finally caught up. Perhaps we finally have a space-competent economy which just needs a challenge?
But the Moon will remain a net cost-centre for centuries.
There is no business case for a Moon colony, but best not let a strategic rival become the only power with a permanent foothold there.
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