The Martian Economist views events on planet Earth from a lofty height, refusing to take sides in parochial, tribal mud-slinging. This alien intellectual is - broadly speaking - a follower of Joseph Schumpeter, who they take to be the most persuasive of all Terran economists. At this critical turning point in Earth's history, the Martian presents us with his/her/its views on perspectives (with a little help from ChatGPT).
The Martian Economist on Donald Trump
A Visual Metaphor for the Past, Present, and Future
A global grid of pulsing light once connected the world - commerce flowing freely from New York to Shanghai, Frankfurt to São Paulo. It was the 1990s, the age of neoliberal triumphalism, and the promise of universal prosperity through open markets seemed within reach. Fast forward a generation: the grid now flickers, fraying at the edges. The engines of globalisation have stalled, weakened by economic contradictions, political backlash, and rising great-power competition. Walls - literal and figurative - divide the world, as revolutionary technologies emerge that could either rebuild the grid or tear it apart entirely. The year is 2025.
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency a few weeks ago is not a historical fluke, nor the mere triumph of personal ambition. It is the product of seismic economic, political, and geopolitical shifts that have accelerated since his first term ended in 2021. These forces - rooted in the failures of neoliberalism, technological disruption, and the fracturing of the global order - demanded a populist, nationalist response, one that Trump was uniquely positioned to deliver.
Neoliberalism’s Implosion
Over the last two decades, the neoliberal economic order that dominated the post-Cold War period has eroded. The structural weaknesses exposed by the 2008 financial crisis, the uneven recovery of the 2010s, and the faltering response to the COVID-19 pandemic created fertile ground for popular alienation from borderless elites who pocketed the many benefits of globalisation.
The 2016 Brexit vote and Trump’s first term were the harbingers of a broader shift toward deglobalisation. Trade wars, the reshoring of manufacturing in response to perceived security-of-supply threats, and geopolitical instability, all began to unravel the global economic system. By the 2020s, the pandemic’s exposure of intrinsic supply-chain fragilities and rising tensions between the U.S. and China cemented this trend.
The Biden administration attempted progressive economic reforms, temporarily stabilising some constituencies, but these efforts failed to resolve the deeper contradictions of the American economy. Wage stagnation persisted, wealth inequality widened, and inflationary pressures eroded the purchasing power of ordinary Americans.
And then there were the culture wars: a near-perpetual conflict over identity and values that sapped any remaining trust in American institutions. By 2024, "drain the swamp" had evolved from a campaign slogan to a grim metaphor for what should be done to the failing state.
Trump’s Return and a Fractured Global Order
Trump’s 2024 campaign capitalised on this discontent, promising a return to “American greatness” through protectionist policies, border controls, and an unapologetic assertion of transactional national interests. His second term emerges against the backdrop of a far more fragmented world than his first.
The U.S., once the undisputed global hegemon, now faces near-peer competitors in China and a revanchist Russia, as well as a host of regional powers asserting themselves. The unipolar moment is over, and Trump’s foreign policy - bilateralism, transactional diplomacy, and military modernisation - reflects this reality. “Peace through strength” is paired with renewed investment in AI-driven defence technologies, hypersonics, and advanced manufacturing.
China is the foremost challenger. It has matched or surpassed the U.S. in AI, quantum computing, and green energy. Its success stems from a state-capitalist model that combines strategic focus with technological ambition. Yet, the contradictions of its authoritarian system act as a brake on progress: centralisation and censorship stifle the entrepreneurial dynamism necessary for sustained innovation.
Russia, meanwhile, is a declining power with delusions of grandeur. Its strategy of leveraging energy exports to sustain its influence is faltering under Western sanctions and a shifting global energy mix. Internally, demographic decline and economic stagnation amplify its vulnerabilities. Russia’s gamble - expanding its empire westward while drifting into economic and even political subservience to China - looks increasingly like a strategic cul-de-sac.
Elsewhere, the rest of the world remains a sideshow. Europe is in inexorable managed decline, its complacent elites and entrenched vested interests strangling change and stifling growth; regions like Latin America and the Middle East struggle with endemic instability. India, though rising, is not yet cohesive or industrialised enough to play a decisive role in the global balance of power.
The Domestic Battlefield
Domestically, Trump’s second term inherits a deeply polarised United States, where institutions from Congress to the judiciary are perceived as captured by self-interested elites. Trump’s populist economic agenda promises to revitalise the industrial heartland through protectionism, infrastructure investment, and reshoring. But these policies face significant obstacles: entrenched elites within the state apparatus, fiscal constraints, and inflationary pressures from an already overstretched economy.
The accelerating pace of technological change further complicates matters. AI, automation, and robotics are transforming labour markets, displacing traditional industries while creating new opportunities for the educated elite. The challenge for Trump - or any leader in this moment - is navigating this transition without exacerbating inequality or social unrest, or losing his base.
The New Arms Race
The 2020s have ushered in an arms race not only in military technology but in economic and ideological competition. AI, quantum computing (potentially, at some point), and hypersonics are at the forefront, reshaping both war and commerce. These technologies are not just tools but arenas of conflict, where leadership confers economic dominance as well as military superiority.
For the U.S., the question is whether Trump’s administration can harness America’s innovative edge to rebuild its economic and strategic primacy, or whether bureaucratic inertia and political dysfunction will squander this advantage. Trump’s “wrecking ball” energy, paired with an operations team capable of executing his vision, may yet reforge America for the next cycle of capitalist development: creative destruction finally unleashed.
The Path Forward
Trump’s second term represents both a moment of crisis and an opportunity. The global order is undergoing a chaotic transformation, with great-power competition, technological upheaval, and economic realignment reshaping the world. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy - while risky - may help deter uncontrolled escalation between the U.S., China, and Russia, while forcing these powers to confront their internal contradictions and hopefully transform themselves to a new global equilibrium.
The stakes are immense. A failure to adapt could plunge the world into protracted conflict, while a successful recalibration could usher in a new era of stability and growth. This is the crucible where the next stage of human development will be forged - or destroyed.
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