COVID-19 Notes: Politics vs Epidemiology

This whole COVID-19 thing has been a laboratory experiment in human behavior. The virus is invisible and for many people there has been no direct experience of the pandemic. So people's reactions are based on what they are being told and instructed to do via the media.

On the foreign TV stations today (CNN, EuroNews) there were video sequences of UK people enjoying the parks in the sunshine over this sunny weekend - in violation of the lockdown. In our own news channels (BBC, ITV) not so much. No copying, please!

The media find themselves in a difficult position: the government fears the fundamental irrationality of the masses and therefore declines to present the models from which they're working ... and the options they're considering.

The culture wars, in all their social momentum, aptly demonstrate how much political force can be assembled in support of nonsense. Who'd risk it?

The media could call them on this, but they also understand how dangerous it is: they hold themselves on a leash, ask seemingly-tough (but rather general) questions on secondary issues and don't challenge the inevitable obfuscatory replies they get from the politicians and health bureaucrats.

I agree this is both sensible and necessary: I merely draw attention to the fact that it's theatre. It also makes everyone involved look kinda stupid as they walk on eggshells.

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It's possible (while mixing a few metaphors) to read between the lines and figure out the small print of government strategy. Right now it's all about suppressing the early exponential phase of infections and building NHS capacity plus testing; in a month they will probably let the 'young' out - festooned with tracing apps - and keep the 'old-retired' cocooned. Not a hard sale. There will be much official wriggling around on 'intrusive' mobile phone apps to lubricate buy-in.

Come the summer the economy will reboot, in fits and starts, with some fumbling since the data on infections/immunity will still be too sparse and underdetermined.

Then as we wheel into the autumn the recession will bite in earnest. I expect 2020/2021 to be the lost years as the zombie-sector of the economy caves in with mass unemployment and bankruptcies.

The economic green shoots are postponed till late 2021.

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What are we doing? We have the exercise bike parked in the hall and we both do 5 or 10 minutes a day at a pant-inducing rate. I jogged the 1.2 km 'round the block' yesterday in a preliminary 7 minutes and 10 seconds; my target is a minute quicker.

Important to prep the respiratory and cardiovascular systems.

"Adam Bede" by George Elliot

Clare has discovered audio books on Kindle - now heavily discounted - and is pictured listening to "Adam Bede".

Amazon link

I am on book six of Chung Kuo and still engaged with the agents of progressive change being uniformly unpleasant and/or psychopathic while the T'ang leadership representing the status quo (= cultural death) are elegant, intelligent and refined. SF opera on the grand scale.