Friday, March 04, 2016

Odds and Probabilities: Clinton vs. Trump

If the odds on something are b:a, then the probability is a/(a+b). Example: if the odds are 2:1, the probability is 1/3.

Here is the website oddschecker's take today on the US Presidential Election in November:
  • For Hillary Clinton, the odds to win are 8:15, a probability of 15/23 = 65%
  • For Donald Trump, the odds are 11:4, a probability of 4/15 = 27%.
Turning now to the British EU Referendum in late June, oddschecker has this to say:
  • The odds for staying in are 4:11, a probability of 11/15 = 73%
  • The odds for Brexit are 5:2, a probability of 2/7 = 29%
Never bet against the bookies. And sure as sure, these odds are not the final word.


Read an interesting paper yesterday (h/t Marginal Revolution): ""Personality Traits and the Dimensions of Political Ideology"" (PDF). Here's a histogram showing the key finding.

This says that you incline to conservative economic political views if you are somewhat extraverted, hard-headed, conscientious, emotionally-stable and of a rather conventional and traditionalist disposition.

On the other hand, you tend to liberal economic political views if you are rather agreeable and 'open to experience'. One thinks of those pleasant, imaginative, emotional luvvies - always so keen to dispense other people's money.

I'm not sure this isn't restating the obvious as regards stereotypical voter types. Still, the sample sizes were large and all science has to start somewhere.

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