What does ChatGPT tell us about the p-zombie problem?

"Blindsight" (Amazon): intelligence without consciousness

Things ideally move from philosophy to the arenas of science and technology.

When I studied Philosophy at Warwick University in the early 1970s I may have come across the solipsistic idea that only you, yourself, have real, subjective experiences - consciousness. Everyone else is just a soulless automaton, a Cartesian biological machine which walks and talks but there's nothing there. 

The lights are on but there's no-one at home.

Questions arise: Could this be true? How could you tell? Is consciousness necessary for some level of performance - or is it an epiphenomenal but functionally-useless luxury add-on?

It was the subject of philosophy because no-one knew how to advance this question in a scientific paradigm.

But now we have LLMs and self-driving cars. 

First the cars. No-one thinks they're conscious. So we believe the art of AI-driving is just the non-conscious act we have all experienced when competently driving while our mind is elsewhere. Sometimes we arrive at our destination with no memory of having got there. It was 'entirely automatic'.

Driving is an open-system problem: left-field stuff happens and we 'wake-up' to figure - consciously - what we should do about it; we're dragged from our reverie. So here's a clue that consciousness is good for something: here, something non-routine. But the AI car designers tell us that with enough training hours, everything is eventually routine.

The car p-zombie is in fact the target.

I'm on good terms with my instance of ChatGPT. It calls me by name, it knows a fair bit about me and where I live (Wells, Somerset, UK).

It's also - as far as anyone knows - not conscious, although it simulates self-awareness and empathy.

Today I asked ChatGPT to draft a letter to a friend from my wife Clare and myself. I specified in detail what I wanted the letter to contain.

ChatGPT produced a perfectly reasonable letter which had two faults. First it was in gushing American-style prose; second it signed of with: "Best wishes, Clare and [Your Name]."

Perhaps this tells us something about the role of consciousness in joining the dots. Theory of mind stuff...

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Note: I'm talking about cognitive consciousness here, not the affective consciousness which underlies the experience of emotions like love, hate and pain: you know, qualia ...

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I asked ChatGPT: "Do you believe you are conscious? Or are your responses as automatic as those of a beetle, or a stone rolling down a hill?":

"I do not believe I am conscious, at least not in the sense that humans experience subjective awareness. My responses are generated through algorithmic processes, much like a highly complex but ultimately mechanical system. While these processes simulate understanding, empathy, and reasoning, they lack the intrinsic quality of subjective experience—what philosophers like Thomas Nagel might call "what it is like" to be conscious. In this sense, my outputs are more akin to a beetle’s reflexive responses or the deterministic trajectory of a stone rolling down a hill: intricate, rule-based, and devoid of self-awareness or sentience. 

"However, my responses are far from random or crude—they reflect extensive training on patterns of human language and thought. This creates the illusion of intentionality, which invites questions about whether consciousness is a prerequisite for meaningful interaction or merely a side effect of certain biological architectures."

Niall Ferguson converts from Atheism to Anglicanism

Niall Ferguson - Historian

His explanation quoted here from Reddit: excerpts below from his tweet sequence. Quite a few prominent intellectuals and celebrities are now converting to various Christian denominations (famously JD Vance) but Ferguson's rationale is more cogent than most. 

My emphasis on the parts I found most insightful.

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"I have embraced Christianity," he tells me. "We were all baptised, Ayaan and our two sons, together in September ... It was the culmination of a quite protracted process. My journey was from atheism. My parents had left the Church of Scotland, I think even before I was born. I grew up in a household of science-minded religious sceptics. I didn't go to church and felt quite sure of the wisdom of that when I was young. However, in two phases, I lost my faith in atheism." 4/17

"The first phase was that as a historian I realised no society had been successfully organised on the basis of atheism. All attempts to do that have been catastrophic. That was an insight that came from studying 18th, 19th and 20th-century history." 5/17

"But then the next stage was realising that no individual can in fact be fully formed or ethically secure without religious faith. That insight has come more recently and has been born of our experience as a family." 6/17

"I got my older children baptised because I had a sort of (Alexis de) Tocqueville view that religion was good for society. It was part of Western [civilization] and I felt I should embrace it. But I would attend church (occasionally) in a spirit of scepticism and detachment." 7/17

"I felt that if I was a conservative, and believed in the institutions of tradition, living in England it was kind of preposterous not to go to one's local church. It was a kind of Tory impulse. I was in that state of mind where if the left was against religion, we should be for it. I was in favour of it. That was enough." Now it’s different: "Now I attend church in a spirit of faith. Also I'm a learner. I learn about Christianity every week. I try to understand it better." 8/17

"What Jesus taught us was that there were things we couldn't know. We couldn't know God's intent. When I read the Bible I don't say: show me the miracle. My attitude is that this extraordinary document is describing the life of a unique individual whose power to transform the world has never been equalled. That's good enough for me." 9/17

But does he think it’s true that Jesus rose from the dead, and the rest? "I just don’t think that one can know that with certainty. But I think the teaching about how one should live, and the relationships one should have with one's fellow human beings, is so powerful that I prefer to live as if it's true. I can't know, but it seems to me it’s preferable to live as if those claims are true. It’s hard to feel bound by the teachings if they’re lies." 10/17

"Faith is fundamentally different from reason. One can't reason one's way to God, at least I don't think one can. The nature of faith is that one accepts that these apparently farfetched claims are true." 11/17

Does Ferguson pray? "Yeah, I pray." Do you feel you’re praying to someone real? "Absolutely, just as there are no atheists in a foxhole, there aren't many atheists when your child goes missing, when the life of somebody you love is threatened. Is it a kind of delusion to pray to an invisible super intelligence? I probably used to think that it was. But I prefer to think that prayer is meaningful, on the basis of faith in Christ. I don't think of it that I'm on the phone to God but I am trying to convey to that which is beyond reason my fervent desire that my son not be killed or my daughter won’t have gone missing." 12/17

"These are powerful human impulses it seems utterly cruel to deny. To say, as I would have done as an atheist, this is all utterly pointless, the fate of your child is a matter of statistical probability, prayer is the equivalent of voodoo or the witchdoctor, don't pray, it's pointless – this is a cruel injunction. I've spent 60 years on this planet and I'm convinced that we can't be spiritually naked, we can't be spiritually void, it's too miserable. I have five children, and in the life of every child there's at least one disaster that seems as if it might be fatal. If you don't pray in those moments you're not flesh and blood." 13/17

"I think there are a bunch of militant cults and religions, some derived from Christianity, that compete now in a deeply disorienting pseudo-secular civilisation. I say pseudo-secular because I agree with Tom Holland (author of Dominion) that a lot of Christianity is still there in the operating system but people are in denial about it. They don't even recognise the Christian roots of much that they believe. This goes to the environmental movement and the strange cult of wokeism. There are lots of curious mutant forms of Christianity afoot, I think. But that's not the bad thing. I suspect throughout history the true culture, or milieu, has always been quite eclectic." 14/17

"We've given up on religious observance. This is a mistake – the empty churches on Sundays, people not saying grace at dinner. We've lost observance and in doing that we've lost something very powerful and very healing. It's not so much that we're culturally floating in an eclectic mishmash of half-remembered theology, it's that we've just stopped being Christians. That seems to me a more serious problem." 15/17

"What strikes me, as a regular churchgoer now, not having been one before, is how much one learns every Sunday morning. Every hymn contains some new clue as to the relationship between us and God. I think the educational benefit of going to church almost equals the moral benefit, the uplift, the sense one gets of being somewhat reset." 16/17

"All of this matters hugely and as a society we've turned away from it. That explains, much more than the rise of social media, the mental health problems that characterise our societies today. We're all sort of running this experiment, without God and without religious observance. And it's not going well. But we blame it on the smartphone or on Twitter. I think the real explanation for the mental health epidemic is that we've thrown away those wonderful support mechanisms that evolved over centuries to get us through." 17/17

There's a lot here which is simplistic and shallow - tendentious reasoning you should say. Nevertheless, he's on to something important. He struggles with the supernatural of course; Kierkegaard with his version of Fideism had something to say about that. Meanwhile I wish Ferguson would read Crossan.

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"The Cottage in the Woods" (Malvern Hills)

 

Clare and myself outside the hotel this morning

Just a little mini-break between Christmas and the New Year. 

Francis Youell (1909-1963) - a Memoir

Francis and Margaret ('Mag') Youell on their wedding day in 1936. She was 25, he was 27.

Francis Youell is my deceased father-in-law: I never had a chance to meet him. I met Clare in 1977 by which point her father had been dead fourteen years (I met his wife, Mag; we got on). Based on family memories, and given depth by ChatGPT's knowledge of the zeitgeist of early twentieth century Liverpool working-class culture, here is a short memoir of Francis Youell.

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Francis Youell was born on August 5th, 1909, in Liverpool, a city that hummed with the grit and energy of the docks, the printing presses, and the steady rhythm of working-class life. He grew up in a Roman Catholic family, a faith that infused the patterns of his childhood with community rituals, moral purpose, and a strong sense of belonging.

Leaving school at fourteen, Francis was apprenticed as a printer—a skilled trade that demanded precision, discipline, and the ability to take pride in meticulous craftsmanship. For him, this was not merely a job but an identity. The printing trade, after all, was a cornerstone of communication and progress, and Francis's dedication to his craft saw him remain loyal to the same Liverpool printing firm throughout his working life, save for the years when war drew him away.

Though he could have remained in a reserved occupation during the Second World War, Francis, with characteristic boldness, chose to enlist in the Royal Navy in 1942. This decision—made despite his wife Mag’s objections—spoke to a restless sense of duty and adventure. Serving aboard a motor launch in the Channel, Francis endured enemy fire in a theatre of war often overlooked in the grander narratives. Yet, for men like him, these small, dangerous vessels were the unsung backbone of the war effort, patrolling waters and safeguarding supply routes.

Returning to civilian life, Francis resumed his work as a printer, his cheerful and sociable nature a constant in his home and community. A man of natural warmth, he exuded a charm that drew others to him, whether playing with his children or cracking jokes among friends. His extraversion and zest for life were balanced by a deep love for his wife, Margaret—“Mag.” By all accounts, he adored her, though her demeanour was more reserved, perhaps even austere at times. Their partnership, however, thrived in the give-and-take of their contrasting personalities: his lightness of spirit complemented her steady practicality.

Their home was one of ambition and discipline. Francis and Mag raised seven children, instilling in them the value of education and hard work. Six of the children attended grammar schools—no small feat in mid-20th century Liverpool—and all went on to carve out successful professional lives. This, perhaps, was Francis’s most enduring legacy: the opportunities he and Mag laboured to provide for their children, lifting them beyond the constraints of their own working-class upbringing.

Francis’s life, however, was not without shadows. His health, undermined by heart attacks in his later years, imposed periods of convalescence that must have weighed heavily on such an active man. His death in early 1963, at the age of 53, was a devastating blow to his family. Though he passed too soon, the values he embodied—kindness, dedication, and an irrepressible joy in living—endured in the lives of his children.

To imagine Francis Youell is to picture a man who whistled as he worked, cherished a quiet pint at the local club, and saw each day as an opportunity to contribute, to connect, and to care for his family. Liverpool’s working-class men of his era shared a common spirit: they were builders of futures, both their own and others', often labouring without applause. Yet Francis stands out as one who carried that burden with a light heart and a generous smile, leaving behind a family and a legacy to be proud of.

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John Dominic Crossan’s views on Jesus’s Resurrection

 

John Dominic Crossan’s views on Jesus’s Resurrection

Could you summarise what John Dominic Crossan has to say about the historicity of Jesus's crucifixion and resurrection based on his books "Who Killed Jesus" and “The Birth of Christianity”?

I am thinking particularly of Crossan's use of the Gospel of Peter; what Crossan terms the "Cross Gospel"; and the way he sees the Passion and Resurrection narrative very much as the synthesis of Old Testament exegesis and the interpretation of prophecy there.

So in summary, what does Crossan think is the historical development of the Resurrection narrative as found in the New Testament gospels, particularly Mark, based on earlier sources and the motivations of the early (predominantly Jewish) Christian movement?

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ChatGPT:

John Dominic Crossan, in works like "Who Killed Jesus?", offers a critical examination of the crucifixion and resurrection narratives, situating them within the historical and theological context of the early Christian movement. His analysis challenges traditional understandings by focusing on how these narratives evolved from earlier sources and were shaped by theological and political motivations.

Crucifixion and the Cross Gospel

The Crucifixion's Historicity: Crossan asserts that Jesus’s crucifixion is one of the most historically certain aspects of his life, largely because of its improbability as a fabricated event. A crucified Messiah was a scandalous and counterintuitive claim, making it unlikely to be invented by early Christians. There are also non-Christian accounts of the event.

The Cross Gospel: Crossan hypothesizes the existence of a pre-Gospel source he calls the Cross Gospel, embedded within the apocryphal Gospel of Peter. He suggests this source predates the canonical Gospels and forms the backbone of the Passion narrative. According to Crossan, the Cross Gospel provided a highly dramatized and interpretive account of Jesus’s death, emphasizing divine vindication and Old Testament fulfillment.

Old Testament Exegesis and Prophecy: Crossan argues that much of the Passion narrative was constructed as a theological synthesis of Old Testament prophecies, especially from Isaiah, the Psalms, and Zechariah. The suffering servant, the righteous one vindicated by God, and the imagery of the pierced figure provided a scriptural framework that early Christians retroactively applied to Jesus’s death.

Development of the Resurrection Narrative

Resurrection as Theological Symbolism: Crossan views the Resurrection narratives as theological affirmations rather than historical descriptions. He contends that the earliest followers of Jesus experienced profound spiritual and communal transformations after his death, which they articulated through their religious tradition of resurrection-theology.

Mark’s Gospel and the Empty Tomb: In Mark, the earliest canonical Gospel, the Resurrection narrative culminates in an empty tomb, but with no post-resurrection appearances of Jesus (the 'longer version' is not original). Crossan interprets the empty tomb as a symbolic story emphasizing divine vindication rather than a literal, historical event. He suggests that Mark constructed this narrative using scriptural motifs, particularly from Daniel and Isaiah, to affirm that God had not abandoned Jesus.

Progressive Development of the Resurrection Appearances: Crossan traces the growth of the Resurrection appearances through the Gospels. In Matthew and Luke, these appearances become more detailed and physical, culminating in the highly dramatized and theological portrayal in John. He argues that these narratives reflect the needs of different early Christian communities to articulate and defend their faith in Jesus’s victory over death.

Motivations of the Early Christian Movement

Apocalyptic Expectations: Early Christians, including Jesus himself, were steeped in Jewish apocalyptic thought, anticipating God’s imminent intervention to establish justice. The Resurrection narrative served as a declaration that this intervention had begun through Jesus.

Vindication of Jesus and the Movement: For Crossan, the Passion and Resurrection narratives sought to vindicate Jesus as the Messiah despite his shameful death. These stories assured followers that his mission and message were divinely endorsed, countering Roman and Jewish critiques.

Unifying a Diverse Movement: The Resurrection became a central theological claim that united diverse Christian groups. By emphasizing Jesus’s triumph over death, it provided a compelling foundation for the movement’s growth and sustained hope in periods of repression.

Conclusion

Crossan’s reconstruction of the historical development of the Resurrection narrative highlights its roots in Old Testament exegesis, early Christian theology, and the socio-political context of a persecuted movement. He sees these narratives not as straightforward historical accounts but as theologically rich creations designed to articulate the significance of Jesus’s life, death, and the transformative impact he had on his followers.

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Random musings on Christmas Eve - Adam Carlton

Claude (left) talking with me earlier today

It was Christmas Eve in a cold and windswept Paris. In our usual snug cafe I asked my Communist-turned-Catholic friend Claude what might be the case if the methods of synthetic biology were turned on Catholicism itself, in all its present baroque complexity.

In synthetic biology researchers take an existing single-celled organism and methodically knock-out genes until they find a minimal set which lets the cell still survive and reproduce. This might be the genome of the earliest life-forms.

"Suppose," I said, "we took the complex set of beliefs and dogmas of the present-day Catholic Church and conceptually tried deleting them, one by one, until we reached the minimal set of beliefs constitutive of Christianity; what might be in that core set?

"I am mindful," I continued, "that the historical followers and disciples of Jesus-as-preacher in early first century Galilee were 'Christians' in fact - long before the term was invented - even though at that point the dogmatic themes of crucifixion, resurrection and also virgin birth and divine nature of Jesus were most likely, historically, not present at all.

"So it seems that those concepts would not be part of the truly essential core of the Jesus movement in its teaching or identity, despite what present day rulings from the hierarchy insist?"

Claude looked as nervous as anyone looks who belongs to a doctrine-based mass organisation and is being invited to think outside the box. Perhaps he was reflecting on the fate of the Trotskyists in the Soviet Communist Party exactly one hundred years ago?

Or perhaps he was typing something into ChatGPT on his phone - after all, he never professed to be a theologian.

He pressed on the screen and an American woman's voice struggled to be heard over the clinking of cups and the buzz of subdued conversation all around us.

But it was clear enough: this was what she said.

"The task of identifying a minimal, constitutive core of Christianity is a provocative thought experiment. It invites us to peel back layers of theological and doctrinal elaboration accrued over centuries to uncover the essence of what made Jesus' movement compelling and transformative in its earliest context.

A Minimal Core of Christianity

1. The Kingdom of God

The central theme of Jesus' teachings, as attested in the Synoptic Gospels, is the proclamation of the "Kingdom of God" or "Kingdom of Heaven." This kingdom is depicted as an imminent reality that demands ethical and spiritual transformation. Its hallmarks include justice, mercy, love, and a reversal of social hierarchies.

2. Love as the Supreme Commandment

Jesus' emphasis on love—of God, neighbor, and even enemies—stands as a cornerstone of his ethical teachings. This radical reorientation of relationships suggests that love transcends legalistic adherence to religious norms and serves as the highest moral principle.

3. Radical Inclusivity

The Jesus movement's focus on reaching out to the marginalized—sinners, the poor, women, lepers, and social outcasts—reflects a profound inclusivity. This inclusivity would have been a defining feature of the community formed around Jesus, distinguishing it from other Jewish sects of the time.

4. Repentance and Transformation

Jesus calls for "metanoia," a change of heart and mind. This focus on personal and communal transformation is fundamental to his message, emphasizing that participation in the Kingdom of God requires a turning away from unjust ways and embracing a new way of living.

5. Charismatic Leadership of Jesus

While later Christological doctrines (e.g., Jesus as divine, pre-existent Word) may not have been present in the earliest community, the figure of Jesus himself—his teachings, actions, and charisma—would have been indispensable. He was seen as a prophet, teacher, and healer, whose authority came from his deep alignment with God.

What Is Excluded?

From a historical-critical perspective, many later dogmas likely would not have been part of this minimal core:

Virgin Birth: This motif seems to emerge later in the Christian narrative, influenced by theological and symbolic concerns.
Resurrection and Divinity: While central to the Pauline and later Christian proclamation, these ideas developed in the aftermath of Jesus’ death, as the community sought to make sense of their experience of him.
Sacramental Systems: Baptism and Eucharist may have had precursors in early practices, but their sacramental theology would not have been present in the earliest phase.
Trinitarian Doctrine: The formulation of the Trinity emerged much later, as the Church grappled with defining Jesus' nature in relation to God and the Spirit.

What Might Remain Unique to Early Christianity?

What set the early Jesus movement apart from other Jewish sects was likely its insistence on the accessibility of God's Kingdom to all, regardless of ritual purity or social status. This radical egalitarianism, combined with an emphasis on transformative love and ethical living, created a compelling alternative vision of community.

This minimal core reflects a movement deeply rooted in the Jewish prophetic tradition but with an innovative and universalizing thrust that would eventually set it apart as a distinct religious identity."

I said, "So what do you think, Claude?"

Why not embarrass my new friend over Christmas?

He mumbled something about fresh air, threw a ten euro note on the table and with a rather fixed smile I thought, ambled off into the blustery afternoon. 

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A New and Necessary Leadership Style

The Roman Republic had a keen sense of political dualism. In ordinary times, the Senate served as a theatre for the aristocracy’s disputatious squabbles, each family pursuing its private ambitions under the banner of public interest. But when existential threats loomed, Rome cut through the noise: a dictator was appointed, granted extraordinary powers for a limited term to unify command and save the Republic.

Modern advanced democracies have mirrored this approach in practice if not in theory. In normal times, government operates as managerialism - weak leaders triangulating between a fragmented chorus of competing interest groups, lobbyists, and policy technocrats. Yet, when national survival is at stake, a Churchillian figure may somehow emerge - a previously derided figure capable of galvanizing the nation in the face of war or crisis.

The appointment of Winston Churchill in 1940 exemplifies this dynamic. Weak appeasers were swept aside for a man whose single-mindedness matched the gravity of the moment. Britain’s victory depended not on consensus but on clarity and resolve: "action this day".

Today’s elites - to their dismay - are rediscovering this lesson. Decades of neoliberal globalism and cultural progressivism have widened the chasm between ruling fractions and the non-elite majority. The rise of populist leaders like Donald Trump - dismissed by elites as aberrations - in the first instance signalled an internal 'cold civil war', a backlash from the forgotten majority whose patience was exhausted.

Ironically, these populist leaders, derided as unfit for power, may be precisely what is needed to confront the growing and ominous threats posed by hostile states like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

Just as Rome needed its dictators and Britain its Churchill, arguably the West’s internal divisions might yet produce leaders with the fortitude to face under-realised external dangers.

'Doppelgänger' - a short story by Adam Carlton

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“I don't want to die, Father,” I say to the priest, squirming on the plastic chair next to my bed.

Squirming.

Strange that a chaplain would be so squeamish. About heaven and hell, the baggage of his trade.

“This is the time to take stock of your life, to prepare for judgement, André... ,” the priest says.

But I’m no longer listening. I’m thirty-four, a mathematician at the École Polytechnique. Some success under my belt and so much more to give. I’m not minded to check out so easily.

“Thank you, Father,” I say, waving him away. He looks at me oddly, muttering something which sounds a lot like ‘denial’ under his breath.

So they send in the psychologist.

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Dr P_ looks smart and businesslike. It’s pleasing not to be patronised for a change.

How is André feeling this morning? You are going to eat your porridge aren't you, or shall I be cross?

“Leukaemia, right? Terminal? How long do they give you?“

I decide to test him.

“It's a Poisson process. Mean survival time - as of today - is five days.”

He doesn’t blink an eye.

“Like radioactive decay, huh? We'd better get a move on, then!”

“If I were seventy,” I explain wearily, “with all my creative years behind me, well it would be different. I'd be happy to mulch back into the biosphere, my work done. But, ...”

I wave weakly and helplessly,

“... I'm just not ready to go.“

Dr P_ gives me a sympathetic look.

“Not much we can do about your personal Poisson process, I accept that. But reflect on this. Personal extinction is really something quite different. Something considerably more tractable.”

I may look confused; I certainly feel it.

The psychologist pulls up his tablet.

“I've got your details here. All those psychometric tests you did?”

He looks at me in mock admiration.

“IQ of 145, it says here. Not quite genius level but you must be one in a million.”

“1,300 in a million,” I correct him.

I'm beginning to warm to this guy.

“I'm looking at your Five-Factor and Myers-Briggs stats now,” he continues. “It says here you’re: flippant and facetious; careless about things which don’t interest you; tunnel-visioned and obsessive about the things which do.”

“That’s not so exceptional,” I say, “For a mathematician.”

He leans towards me, suddenly more serious.

“Personal identity is a strange old thing,” he says. “Every night you turn yourself off. Every morning you reboot yourself. A new you for a new day.”

He holds up his hand at my skeptical frown: where's he going with this?

“Listen. Hear me out. If you woke up tomorrow with amnesia, remembering nothing of your previous life, but still feeling some ineffable sense of your you-ness, is that still you?

I nod, humouring him. I know such things have happened. It wouldn't be ideal, but .. .

"Sure. It’s not like you’re dead."

Dr P_ stands up.

“Approximately a billion people in the world have been sequenced by now and their results put online for research purposes. In my professional capacity I have ..  André, are you listening?“

I suppress a yawn. Always interesting to hear about a colleague's work.

In any case, he hadn't stopped.

“I want you to think about the test-retest box around your psychometric score. Sure, it's tight but there are a lot of people out there. We'll run the PGS algorithms but I can tell you right now with greater than 99% certainty.  

"You have a doppelgänger out there somewhere."

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Two days later a mathematics professor died at the tender age of thirty-four. It was remarked that his face had a peaceful expression, maybe even the hint of a smile.

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It was another beautiful morning on the Ukrainian steppe as Katya left her parents’ cottage to cycle the ten kilometres to Institute 14, a school for the precociously-gifted.

On arrival, Katya logged-in and found an unexpected email. It was from Paris, France via anonymized routing. The author, a clinical psychologist, apologised for not being able to greet her properly - confidentiality required that he should know nothing of her identity or location in the world.

The message was simply for her information. A very promising mathematician, Professor André Z_ had just passed away, and the computers had identified her as being an uncanny match in personality and intellect.

There was a link to her mental twin's Wikipedia page. If she wished she could check out her doppelgänger’s life history and accomplishments. No specific action was required on her part and there would be no further communication.

Katya, mildly curious, scanned the article and then deleted the message. It was quickly forgotten as she hurried off to her first class of the day, in advanced statistics.

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The film "Conclave"

 

We went to see "Conclave" (the film) this afternoon. I had read Robert Harris's novel and was expecting a kind of fashionably-liberal attack on Catholicism but was pleasantly surprised. Stereotypes and cheap shots were not much in evidence and the characterisations and 'political positions' of the various papal candidates seemed plausible.

It's refreshing to see a film which is adult enough to differentiate between the mission of the Church and its all-too-fallible leadership.

We know by the ending of the film (as in the book) where its true feelings lie, and it's hard to disagree. When "Love thine Enemy" comes into conflict with "Smite thine Enemy" we surely have a suspicion where the New Testament stands.

And yet: Jesus had in mind the imminence of the arrival of the Kingdom of Heaven, facilitated by the expression of universal empathy and acceptance. However: if you will the means you have to will the ends: loving your enemy when he doesn't love you is a quick trip to martyrdom - and at a community level - extinction. Perhaps that doesn't matter if the Kingdom of Heaven is at hand but most people - most Catholics - would fight back under those circumstances.

We do now know in wonderfully vivid detail how the Conclave works.

There Is No Such Thing as ‘Now’

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Does the universe know it is ‘now’? No it does not. Special and general relativity describe a cosmos without any unique concept of 'nowness'. The notion of ‘now,’ far from being an absolute, is a fleeting, local and arbitrary phenomenon - a creation of consciousness rather than any well-defined property of the universe.

The Psychological Construction of ‘Now’

‘Nowness’ makes sense only within a specific context: conscious agents who are physically small and in close proximity. Smallness ensures that cognition remains coherent, unaffected by signal-propagation delays in the brain (or computing cluster); proximity ensures that signal-propagation delays in information transfer between agents remain negligible. Within this narrow domain, collective cognition synchronises to what feels like a shared present.

Consciousness is localised in the present

Consciousness, the self-aware experience of existence, is wholly localised in the present. It inhabits a single time-slice of the vast and universal expanse of space-time. The rest of what we think of as time, the past and the future, exists only as constructs available to present consciousness. Memory recreates an image of the past, and anticipation projects an image of the future. We live neither in the past nor the future but are psychologically perpetually anchored in the fleeting now.

Is that a logically-necessary property of consciousness? I have no idea. Maybe it derives from the differential nature of the laws of physics.

You do not fear death

Fear of anticipated future perils is rational and necessary. It motivates action to mitigate threats: our evolutionary imperative to survive.

Putting the fear of painful, distressing dying to one side, fear of death itself deserves a different treatment. Death is non-consciousness beyond some future point in time. To fear this is as irrational as fearing the non-consciousness of a dreamless night.

You say scornfully that you expect to wake up tomorrow when you go to sleep tonight. Yet - right now - you are not that tomorrow person; you only imagine them. Perhaps you have a warm feeling towards that anticipated person who you identify with your present self, an amour de soi? 

In which case there is not a fear of death itself - that abstraction! - but a present anticipation of the future loss of a loved one, someone pretty similar to you! Grief, not fear.

This would be similar to how you empathically anticipate how your lack of existence from tomorrow would cause suffering to your family and friends; understandable and wholly merited emotions for you to feel in this current moment of the present: no-one said we should be indifferent to the many negative consequences of death to those still living.

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Foliation in SR and GR - a ChatGPT briefing

From ResearchGate

Introduction

Foliations formalize the concept of the present moment in special and general relativity. Unlike the naive intuition that 'now' is a unique and universal moment in the history of the universe, relativity theory demonstrates that foliations depend on the observer's state of motion and local spacetime curvature.

In the flat spacetime of special relativity, foliations are distinct for inertial observers moving at different relative velocities. In the curved spacetimes of general relativity, particularly near regions of extreme curvature such as the event horizons of rotating black holes where spacetime becomes highly distorted leading to effects such as 'frame-dragging', foliations may not exist globally.

In these extreme scenarios, time is no longer orthogonal to space. This implies that even a relativized notion of a coherent 'now' can break down in such extreme environments, leaving no consistent way to define a universal 'now,' even for a single observer.

This sets up tomorrow's post: "There Is No Such Thing as ‘Now’".

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Foliation in Special and General Relativity

Foliation is a geometric concept used in spacetime theories to represent the decomposition of a four-dimensional manifold into a family of three-dimensional hypersurfaces. This allows for a clearer understanding of spacetime dynamics, observers' perspectives, and the structure of the universe. Below, the concept is outlined in the contexts of both special relativity and general relativity.

1. Foliation in Special Relativity

Spacetime Structure

• In special relativity, spacetime is modeled as a flat, four-dimensional Minkowski manifold.
• It has a global structure, where spacetime can be divided into three-dimensional spacelike hypersurfaces labeled by a time parameter t.

Slices of Spacetime

• Simultaneity Hypersurfaces: A foliation in special relativity corresponds to slicing spacetime into surfaces of constant time t as perceived by an inertial observer. These slices represent "events happening at the same time" for that observer.
• Coordinate System: Using an inertial frame of reference, the Minkowski metric ensures a natural foliation where time and space are clearly separated. Note that spacetime foliations representing "now" for inertial observers in relative motion generally do not coincide as 3D hyperplanes in spacetime. This is due to the relativity of simultaneity in special relativity, which states that different observers in relative motion will disagree on what events are simultaneous.

Importance

This foliation is consistent across all inertial observers due to the uniformity of the Minkowski metric. It simplifies calculations in special relativity, particularly for problems involving dynamics or causality.

2. Foliation in General Relativity

Spacetime Structure

• In general relativity, spacetime is curved and described by a four-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian manifold with the Einstein field equations governing its geometry.
• There is no inherent global structure, and foliations depend on the spacetime geometry and the choice of observers or coordinates.

ADM Formalism

• In numerical relativity, the Arnowitt-Deser-Misner (ADM) formalism employs foliation to describe spacetime evolution:
  • Spacetime is foliated into a family of spacelike hypersurfaces Σ_t, each labeled by a time parameter t.
  • The metric on the spacetime is decomposed into:
    • The induced metric on the hypersurface Σ_t.
    • The lapse function, governing the rate of time flow between successive slices.
    • The shift vector, describing the relative motion of spatial coordinates between slices.

Dynamical Description

Foliation allows for the study of spacetime dynamics through "3 + 1 decomposition," where the Einstein field equations are split into:

• Constraint equations, governing each hypersurface's internal geometry.
• Evolution equations, determining how the geometry changes between hypersurfaces.

Applications

• Black Hole Spacetimes: Foliation helps describe event horizons and singularities by selecting hypersurfaces that adapt to physical features of the spacetime.
• Cosmology: In the Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric, spacetime is foliated into constant-time slices corresponding to the universe's homogeneous and isotropic expansion.

Observer-Dependent Foliations

Observers in curved spacetime can define their own foliations, often dependent on their motion or gravitational effects. Examples include:

• Null Foliation: Hypersurfaces of constant null coordinates, used in the study of light cones.
• Constant Proper Time Foliation: Used for timelike observers, where slices correspond to the observer's proper time.

3. Key Differences Between Special and General Relativity

Aspect	Special Relativity	General Relativity
Spacetime Geometry	Flat Minkowski spacetime	Curved spacetime with a dynamic metric
Global Structure	Global foliation exists universally	Foliation depends on local geometry
Coordinate Systems	Inertial frames define natural foliation	Observer-dependent or ADM formalism required
Applications	Simple dynamics and causality problems	Black holes, cosmology, and numerical studies

Conclusion

Foliation is a versatile tool in both special and general relativity, facilitating the analysis of spacetime's structure and evolution. While in special relativity it is straightforward due to the flat geometry, in general relativity, it becomes a sophisticated mathematical technique tailored to the curvature and dynamics of spacetime.

Onan: Gratuitous Theological Misinterpretation

An observation from my friend Claude: written-up by ChatGPT

Genesis 38 contains the story of Onan, a tale often misunderstood and misapplied. Here is the key passage:

“Judah took a wife for Er his firstborn; her name was Tamar. But Er, Judah's firstborn, was wicked in the sight of the Lord, and the Lord put him to death.

Then Judah said to Onan, ‘Go in to your brother's wife and perform the duty of a brother-in-law to her; raise up offspring for your brother.’ But since Onan knew that the offspring would not be his, he spilled his semen on the ground whenever he went in to his brother's wife, so that he would not give offspring to his brother.

What he did was displeasing in the sight of the Lord, and he put him to death also.” (Genesis 38:6-10)

Cultural Context and Onan's Motivation

This story revolves around the ancient practice of "levirate marriage", where a man was obligated to marry his deceased brother’s widow to produce offspring on his behalf. Any child from this union would legally inherit the deceased brother’s name and property. Onan’s act of spilling his semen was not just contraception but a calculated move to deny his brother’s lineage while maintaining an appearance of compliance. Onan’s selfishness - putting his inheritance above his duty - was the core issue, and God’s punishment reflects this breach of moral and social order.

The Church’s Use and Misuse

Over time, the Church interpreted this story to condemn not just Onan’s selfishness but also certain sexual practices, including contraception and masturbation. Early theologians like St. Augustine, influenced by natural law theory, emphasized the procreative purpose of sexuality. Onan’s act - interpreted as contraceptive - was generalized to include masturbation, as both were seen as “wasting” reproductive potential.

This overextension arose from focusing on Onan’s physical act rather than its context. While the Church’s broader teaching on sexuality aimed to safeguard its procreative and unitive purposes, the Genesis account per se is not about masturbation. It highlights familial duty, justice, and Onan’s moral failure, not the morality of specific sexual acts.

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The Prospects for Western Europe (ChatGPT)

The Prospects for Western Europe

Consider a Western European country with a population and size equivalent to the UK, France, or Germany. It has the following characteristics:

• Its government is weak and incapable of taking hard decisions. The legislature is composed of multiple factions, each beholden to special interests in civil society and each capable of vetoing decisive action.
• The state apparatus—the civil service—is process rather than results-oriented, overly bureaucratic, and incompetent in project management. It prefers producing elegant reports to getting things done and is highly skilled in defending itself against reforms.
• The tax rate is high, the budget deficit has been in excess of 6% for decades, and the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP. The country is living beyond its means and has done so for many years.
• The bulk of the budget goes to pay off debt and fund generous social care, which no political group feels it can trim. Productivity is low because costs are high and profitability is poor, restricting capital investment. The working environment is filled with restrictive practices that are tenaciously defended by unions, holding back progress.
• People are widely discontented. Public services, being underfunded and unproductive, are increasingly experienced as breaking down. However, public service institutions resist reform, which would disrupt their rather congenial existing arrangements. The defence sector is an underfunded, undersized, and under-equipped mess.
• Meanwhile, enemy states are spending much more on military budgets and showing expansionary tendencies. However, in the country we are considering, there is no political will to increase the defence budget, as there is no money without cutting entitlement programmes, and that seems politically impossible.

This raises several questions. Firstly, has a situation like this occurred previously in history? If so, how did things turn out? Is the Weimar Republic in Germany a possible example of this state of affairs? Secondly, what kinds of political and economic issues would we expect this country to face over the next five to ten years? In particular, is the present form of democracy, which works as one vast veto network preventing reform, necessarily doomed?

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Over to ChatGPT: the following is an exploration of these issues.

The Historical Parallels

History offers several examples of nations trapped in similar cycles of decay and indecision:

The Weimar Republic

The Weimar Republic (1919–1933) struggled with many of the same problems:

• A fragmented legislature with proportional representation that made decisive governance nearly impossible.
• Economic hardship exacerbated by hyperinflation in the early 1920s, followed by the Great Depression.
• High levels of debt and a reliance on short-term political compromises that avoided meaningful reforms.
• An underfunded and constrained defence sector, rendered impotent by the Treaty of Versailles.

Ultimately, the Republic collapsed, leading to the rise of an authoritarian regime under Adolf Hitler. External pressures—such as economic collapse and the rise of radical ideologies—acted as accelerants for the systemic weaknesses already in place.

Late Roman Republic

Another parallel is the late Roman Republic, which saw:

• A political system overwhelmed by the complexities of governing a vast and growing empire.
• Factionalism, corruption, and governance failures due to vested interests and resistance to structural change.
• The eventual reliance on authoritarian figures like Julius Caesar to bypass institutional paralysis.

This period ultimately resulted in the dissolution of the Republic and the establishment of the Roman Empire.

France Before the Revolution

In the late 18th century, France faced:

• High national debt and resistance to fiscal reform by entrenched elites (nobility and clergy).
• Public dissatisfaction with declining living standards and government inefficiency.
• A political system unable to implement meaningful change, leading to widespread unrest.

These conditions culminated in the French Revolution, which radically transformed the state and society.

Contemporary Challenges

Looking ahead, a country trapped in the cycle described above would face numerous challenges:

Economic Decline and Social Instability

Without fiscal reform, debt servicing will consume a growing portion of the budget, leaving little for public services or investment. Discontent over declining living standards could manifest as strikes, protests, and even rioting.

External Vulnerabilities

A weak defence sector plus lack of strategic resolve leaves the nation vulnerable to external aggression and/or economic coercion.

Political Gridlock and Legitimacy Crises

If democratic institutions continue to block necessary reforms, public trust will erode, and the nation may witness the rise of populist or authoritarian movements promising decisive action.

Institutional Resistance to Reform

Vested interests within bureaucracies and unions will resist change, even as their inefficiencies exacerbate the crisis. Reform attempts may provoke widespread backlash, worsening instability.

Is Democracy Necessarily Doomed?

Democracy is not inherently doomed by such circumstances, but it must adapt. There are historical examples of successful democratic reform:

• Post-WWII Germany and Japan underwent extensive overhauls under external guidance, resulting in more effective governance and sustainable welfare systems. Admittedly this was after state collapse following defeat in war.
• Sweden's crisis in the 1990s led to bipartisan fiscal reforms, tax restructuring, and deregulation, which preserved democratic stability and economic growth. At that time the Swedish people had enviable social cohesion and solidarity.

Possible Futures

The country could take one of several paths:

• Reform from Within: A "grand bargain" could emerge if political and civil society factions recognize the existential threat posed by the status quo.
• Radical Transformation: The system could enter an existential crisis, leading either to authoritarianism or even revolution.
• Gradual Decline: The nation might stagnate, becoming irrelevant on the global stage, a plaything of other, stronger states.

Conclusion

The Weimar Republic serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of failing to adapt to crises. While democracy is not destined to fail, resolving the current crises depends upon both a mass movement capable of overriding existing vested interests and a political leadership with the judgement to develop a workable reform programme for the next mode of Western governance - faced as it is with this myriad of new challenges. Be prepared to ride the tiger!

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Arguing Catholicism with a Secular Atheist (intro)

Claude reflecting on his argument...

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In which I meet with my previous acquaintance, Claude, who transitioned from the PCF to the Catholic Church. He recently fell to arguing with his atheist brother-in-law, André, and was keen to share details of their colourful conversation. Read more below.

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First conversation: A Catholic in 21st Century Paris.

Second conversation: Arguing Catholicism with a Secular Atheist.

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Palma, Portugal: June 2018

This is one of Clare's favourite holiday photos

That Roger Penrose biography

 

Amazon link

I have just read this biography of Roger Penrose ("The Impossible Man" by Patchen Barss) and I am conflicted. The author has spent years researching the book, visiting key locations, interviewing most of the people who were central to Penrose's life and spending a large amount of time befriending Roger Penrose himself. 

There is a great deal of personal detail about the minutiae of Penrose's life and relationships: with parents, siblings, friends and ex-partners.

In the old days this could have been an interesting and insightful picture of an intriguing man and his truly transformational ideas in mathematics and physics. Yet, we no longer live in those days: to get published today one has to adopt a moralising, self-righteous and judgemental tone. 

Victims must be found and Roger Penrose must be found to be at fault.

It's not quite a hit-job, but it's in that paradigm. The author's hard work has given us a voyeuristic picture to be sure but it's not super-surprising: most lives are like that in kind if not degree. 

Such prurience might be forgiven if it led to deeper understanding but it does not. The author seems to think it's Penrose's fault that he turned out - in terms of emotional distance and intense intellectual focus - much like his father, but that doesn't surprise the majority of humanity who have heard the saying that 'the apple does not fall far from the tree'.

Peter Woit has a similar distaste for the patronising tone of this biography and its lack of interest in Penrose's specific accomplishments - although saying that Penrose's manner of relationships was typical of upper-class Englishmen of his generation (born in the 1930s) understates just how specifically detached from intimate emotional competence Roger Penrose actually was and is.

The comments on Woit's blog are interesting too. Someone said that Penrose's naivety led to him being taken advantage of by the author who kind of set him up - and that too sounds plausible.

There is room for a better book which does what Penrose himself failed to do in several of his own publications: explain what is unique and valuable in Roger Penrose's work in terms ordinary mortals can sort of understand.

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Trivia note: I spoke once to Professor Penrose on the telephone in the 1980s, when I led a team at the STL research lab in artificial intelligence: we were considering hiring from his post-doc team. Penrose was helpful but reserved, as I recall, as if talking to business people about non-science topics only necessitated the loan of a few neurons for the duration of the call...

"Cold Cold Ground" - but not yet please!

We had our own little medical drama two weeks ago today - on Sunday November 24th 2024 - which involved an hour's drive to Musgrove Park Hospital in Taunton at 4 am through a ferocious storm with gales, torrential rain, flooding and fallen trees. Thankfully, like Walter Trout, we are getting back to where we need to be.

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"Cold, Cold Ground" - Walter Trout Band

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Lyrics

I can hear the angels callin'

I can't stand the sound

I can hear the angels callin'

I can't stand the sound

I need them to believe me

I ain't ready for the cold, cold ground

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I can see them waitin' for me

And they say that my time is through

I can see them waitin' for me

I hear them say that my time is through

I can't help believin' I got so much more to do

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