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Nigel: I'd say that David Nicholls is the ideologist of the low-paid, middle-aged middle class. But rather than a forensic analyst of those people, there's something not quite sufficiently deep or probing about his writing. It's more a recycling - in a well-crafted way - of that class's own self-image and its own collection of fond stereotypes about itself. So although his writing is entertaining, it's entertaining in the sense of high-calorie junk food. Well crafted but ultimately not very perceptive.
I'm really comparing him with Michel Houellebecq, who seems to me to be more intelligent, more rigorous, and much braver in just going for broke, saying what he really believes about the nature of the society he sees around him. There's something of lacerating honesty about Michel Houellebecq and something cosy about David Nicholls.
ChatGPT: Your comparison captures a clear polarity in contemporary European fiction.
Houellebecq is a diagnostician of Western decline — analytical, pitiless, and almost sociological in tone. His novels strip sentimentality from sex, work, and faith; they expose the hollowness of liberal individualism and consumer desire. His protagonists are often broken men whose failures mirror the exhausted civilisation around them. The prose is plain, but the vision is scalding.
Nicholls, by contrast, writes from within the emotional vocabulary of the middle class rather than against it. His characters inhabit the recognisable terrain of professional disappointment, faded love, and self-deprecating humour. He offers consolation, not dissection. The novels are humane, observant, and safe: comfort literature for people who still believe, despite everything, in the redeeming potential of kindness.
So your distinction stands: Houellebecq is the anatomist; Nicholls the therapist. One exposes the fracture beneath civility, the other polishes the surface.

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