A cliodynamic analysis of the SNP in Scotland

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Cliodynamics and the Scottish Independence Movement

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Another example of the power of the Cliodynamics framework of analysis. Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory frames political upheaval in terms of deep forces rather than personalities or contingencies. In this analysis, his model highlights three dynamics: mass immiseration, elite overproduction, and state fiscal fragility. The interplay of these trends shapes whether societies remain stable or veer into crisis. It is illuminating to apply this lens to the Scottish independence movement.

For decades, the SNP has functioned as a counter-elite organisation. Its leaders and activists are talented professionals - lawyers, academics, politicians - who, within the framework of the London-centric United Kingdom, are blocked from the very top tier of elite status. Prime ministerships, treasury posts, intelligence leadership, senior ambassadorships, and control over monetary policy are all reserved to Westminster. Scotland’s elites hold positions of influence, but the most prestigious and powerful roles remain off-limits.

Independence promises to change that. A sovereign Scotland would multiply elite slots: cabinet portfolios, a central bank and governorship, top civil-service and military posts, regulators, and ambassadorships abroad. In cliodynamic terms, secession would absorb part of the elite surplus by creating a fresh pyramid of offices. This explains the persistent drive of the SNP and its allies: they have the structural incentive to keep pushing.

The problem lies with the masses. For Turchin, immiseration (stagnant or declining wages and prospects) among ordinary people supplies the fuel for counter-elites. Yet here the calculus is difficult. Scotland benefits from fiscal transfers within the UK, allowing higher public spending than its domestic tax base can sustain. Independence would mean replicating expensive state functions, assuming a higher deficit, and facing uncertainty over currency and borrowing: classic diseconomies of scale. To many Scottish workers and pensioners, the subconscious message is simple: life could get poorer, not better.

This mismatch between elite incentives and mass fears was stark in 2014. The referendum mobilised nearly half the electorate in favour of independence - remarkable given establishment opposition - but economic anxiety kept the “Yes” vote below 50%. The counter-elites could not fully align immiseration with their project.

Since then, Brexit, austerity, and Conservative dominance at Westminster have supplied new grievances. The case for independence is reframed as a chance to escape England’s trajectory, to rejoin Europe, to build a fairer welfare state. The SNP hoped that deteriorating UK politics will tilt the cost–benefit calculation for ordinary Scots.

But cliodynamics suggests that unless the UK itself enters deeper crisis - fiscal breakdown, contested elections, or draconian repression - the Scottish masses remain a brake. Counter-elites cannot carry secession on their own; they require a perception that independence alleviates immiseration rather than worsens it.

In this sense, the independence movement is structurally-driven but contingently-blocked. It will not vanish, because the elite incentive remains. But it will not triumph unless London delivers the kind of trigger event that redefines the economic risks of secession. If that occurs, the Scottish counter-elites will be ready, and the new elite pyramid will rise quickly.

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Why the SNP is scandal-ridden and out of ideas—and why Reform is rising in Scotland

Longevity breeds establishment. The SNP’s long incumbency since 2007 has generated fatigue and clientelism. Financial investigations, leadership turmoil, and factional splits have eroded moral authority. A counter-elite that captures regional power without delivering its promised rupture starts to look like the establishment it opposed.

Strategic exhaustion. With London refusing a fresh referendum, Brussels cautious, and the economic case unpersuasive, the SNP’s narrative has stalled. Counter-elites without a credible path to power appear hollow; policy improvisation reads as drift.

Reform’s counterintuitive traction. In Scotland, Reform functions as a protest vehicle rather than a cultural fit. Immiserated voters use it to punish an exhausted political class in Edinburgh as well as London. Some frustrated Scottish aspirants also pivot toward a UK-wide populist ladder that seems to be moving while the SNP’s hierarchy ossifies.

Cliodynamic synthesis. The SNP’s decay is what happens when a counter-elite movement cannot consummate elite circulation. Reform’s gains signal that discontent will find an outlet across national lines when domestic counter-elites are discredited. Unless structural conditions change - or Westminster triggers a crisis that flips mass risk-perception - the Scottish independence project will remain structurally-incentivised yet mass-constrained.