COVID-19 Notes: R0 > 1 still: March 21st 2020

Wells Market today (the Spring Equinox) - this counts as deserted

Other things being approximately equal, while reported cases rise (day on day) each day, R0 > 1.

This means the pandemic is not under control, is not being suppressed, is only being managed.

The revealed preference of UK Government policy is pretty much the status quo ante:

• to accept that this infection is going to run, albeit at a slower rate - reduced R0 >1
• to try to "shield" (cocoon) the elderly, pregnant and 'at risk'
• to ramp up resources (testing and contact-tracing, beds, ventilators, partial-treatments, eventually vaccination) as fast as possible.

Minimising the virus overspill over NHS resources seems an acceptable compromise, carried out under the acceptable political banner of 'suppression'.

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